26/04/2026
The continued Middle East war is weighing down the Philippine stock market. Here’s what’s happening:
1. PSEi dropped below 6,000
The Philippine Stock Exchange index closed at *5,983.81, down 0.10% It slipped under the 6,000 psychological level as investors stayed cautious.
2. Main effects of the war on PSEi:
- Oil prices up = inflation fears
Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by US forces, keeping global oil prices elevated
- Higher oil → higher fuel, food, fertilizer costs in PH
- BSP hiked rates 25 bps to 4.50% Thursday to fight inflation, which makes borrowing costlier and hurts stocks
Peso weakened
- Peso fell to ₱60.48 vs USD - Thursday as the dollar strengthened on war jitters
- Weak peso = foreign investors pull money out.
3. Sector impacts today:
Services +0.41% Mining -1.40% despite high commodity prices
*SMC +2.56% — diversified exposure helps
*ACEN -3.73% — rate-sensitive energy plays hit
* ICTSI +0.57% - to ₱710
* Jollibee -1.23% - to ₱160
* Oil costs hit margins
* Semirara +1.18% — energy prices up
* BDO -1.09%
* BPI -1.24%— banks down on rate hike
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Why the war matters to PH stocks:
1. We import 90%+ of our oil — Strait of Hormuz disruption = direct hit to inflation
2. BSP says inflation likely to breach 4% target in 2026-2027 because of war
3. No concrete peace deal — Trump extended ceasefire but Iran seized 2 vessels Wed, so Strait still blocked
Bottom line:
War = oil up = inflation up = BSP hikes = stocks down.
The market is in “wait-and-see” mode. Until there’s a real US-Iran deal and Strait of Hormuz reopens, expect choppy trading, weak peso, and pressure on consumer/rate-sensitive stocks.
Analysts are still “cautiously optimistic” for H2 2026 if gov’t spending picks up and inflation eases, but the war is the main drag right now.
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