11/03/2025
Gold is in a strong bullish trend, breaking all-time highs first at $2783 and $2955, it's currently trading above $2,900 per ounce a slight drop form 13th of February this year as gold records a new All Time high (ATH). The momentum remains heavily in the bullish side supported by a breakout and an uptrend movement from January to date.
The measured move from this breakout suggests a potential upside target near $3,100 taking buy side liquidity before it retraces again though short-term corrections remain possible.
Support Levels:
$2,790 – A recent breakout level that may serve as the first line of support.
$2,530 – A key retracement level where buyers could re-enter if a pullback occurs.
$2,430 – A historical support level from previous price action.
Resistance Levels:
$3,000 – A psychological resistance level that, if broken, could open the path to further highs.
$3,100 – A projected target based on the measured move technique.
Key Fundamental Drivers:
Central Bank Demand:
Central bank and china have been accumulating gold aggressively, contributing to its priced-up and expected to continue within few weeks.
Inflation and Economic Policy:
Us inflation pressures have increases due to tariffs imposed by the US government on steel and aluminum, and canada retaliation yield a huge impact in the stability of the market, investors are eyeing to gold as a hedge trade against inflation anf depleting fiat value.
The Federal Reserves stance on interest rates will be the turner, If rate hikes will slow down or reverse, gold could benefit from lower real yields.
US Dollar and Treasury Yields:
The US dollar has weakened, and foreign investors are eying to invest in a more stable assets like gold plus the declining Treasury yields have increased the appeal of non-yielding assets in the market.
Weekly Outlook
Bullish Scenario:
If gold breaks above $3,000, it could gain further momentum and push more upwards, targeting $3,100 or best possible scenario of $3150 and beyond. This would be supported by continued central bank demand and inflationary concerns and of course economic and ongoing political uncertainties.
Bearish Scenario:
A short-term correction from $2890 is possible, especially if the US dollar strengthens with the the release of positive economic datas or if profit-taking from institution occurs. Key level to watch for potential support is $2,790.
