02/03/2022
Wednesday : March 1, 2022
US Equity dropped last night. US State of the Union Address at 9:30 am (Asia time). We expect he will address domestic issues such as inflation before tackling the Russia- Ukraine war. We could see a steady move tonight in the US equity.
This Thursday Powell speaks.
Brent Crude Oil crosses $105 as we have expected. Investments to Government Bonds on DM short-term is just a proxy atm (it won’t help due to the real issue of Inflation).
Key is investing in ESG and Climate Change for low carbon emissions.
Asia yesterday market rallied, crude oil advances, Treasury , Japan and China shares advance. Buying opportunities of Russian companies are being snapped up by China at a deep discount.
China calls for peace between Russia and Ukraine and will not participate. It’s a look and see for Xi and see how it pans out.
Fed rate hikes this month will most likely 25bps not at 50bps due to the geopolitical crisis. They may not tighten so fast. Projection 10 year Treasury 1.50 & TLT (20 yr TSY ETF) to $146 before it goes back to $120.
More Sanctions to Russia:
Exxon, Daimler, Shell, Disney, Apple, Time Warner, FIFA and Formula 1 both sports firm prohibits Russian players to participate in FIFA and F1. United Airlines & Big US Tech Firms including TIKTOK. Dating app Tinder is considering to prohibit Russian profiles.
Japan yesterday sanctions Russia which is very important.
JP morgan Dimon will cut off any ETF that invests in Russia out of their platform. And MSCI index that follows Russia is asked to remove on its list.
$9 billion Bond of Russian bonds maturing soon for Russian issuers. Liquidity is almost NIL.
The Ruble is a Rubble. $83billion Wealth is wiped-out from The Russian HNW clients.
European Financial firms shares drops last night. BNP and Pictet Asset Mgt. Restricts clients to invest in Russia.
EU agrees to move the next step to Include Ukraine as a member.
SEA’s Shoppee exits e-commerce arm from France.
Due to the Russian sanctions, the crypto platform is used as an alternative. This is a red flag for money laundering or contributing to the war (in the long term when regulators step in) is a problem.
Photo from Google