18/02/2023
May nag post sa Binance Philippines,. "Ano ba ang ibig sabihin ng Bitcoin halving"?
Eto explain ko master ng malinaw at medyo maikli lang.
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(A very important topic for all HODLERS)..
Usapang HALVING, (taglish).
What is bitcoin halving?
Halving is an event date master kung saan hinahati yung blocks reward ng mga btc miners,. Mangyayari yan once every cycle or once every 4 years. pero walang exact date.
Walang exact date?
Depende kasi yan master sa transaction o volume na pumapasok at lumalabas na btc inside any platforms at mga OTC, (over the counter platforms).
Meaning demand and supply pa rin naka base, pag maliit ang volume o pumapasok at lumalabas na transactions mas matatagaan yung halving date dahil yung alotted blocks na kailangan i-mina ng mga btc miners during halving ay hindi na proprocess ng (sapat).
Ano ba yung btc miners??
Mga btc miners master sila yung individual, o company na gumagamit ng mga high power computers para ma solve yung mga cryptographic puzzles (blocks) upang makapag verify at maka-pag validate ng mga transaction inside the blockchain. In return master, nakakareceive sila ng certain number of Bitcoin reward every blocks na nasosolve o navavalidate nila. Yun yung pinaka sahod nila master maliban sa mga commision sa mga transaction fees sa mga platform like binance etc.
Ganito para mas klaro masters, Bitcoin reward eto yung new Bitcoin created na naiinclude sa mismong circulating supply every transaction, considered yan as demand bali, basta nadadag-dag ang circulating ng specific coin. At patuloy itong mangyayari every 4 years hanggang sa mauubos yung maximum supply na 21million coins ni Bitcoin. At estimated year 2140 matatapos yang mining master o last halving. Yes Paktay na tayong lahat non.
Bakit ba hinahati yung reward blocks master during halving anong reason?
Pag hindi hinati yan master magkakaroon ng sobrang massive inflation o sobrang pagtaas ng presyo, sa kadahilanang madaling mauubos yung total supply, Ang magiging effect non sa btc price magiging stable na halos master dahil hindi na magiging "afford" sa mga bagong investor o Hindi na Sila magkakaroon ng interest mag invest. Yung circulation o ikot ng transaction magiging mabagal master. Kaya itinakda talaga nilang paaubitm ng year 2140 yang end of halving.
Ano ba yung Blockchain?
Process system ito bali master upang mai-transfer yung mga crypto asset transaction ng secured, mas mabilis na hindi na kina-kailangan pang dumaan sa mga 3rd party o middle man gaya ng mga banko, financial institutions and any government related, kaya mas lessen yung transaction fees na binabayaran natin master sa bawat transaction dahil more on technology na yung buong transaction master.
Anong impact ng lintik na HALVING na yan sa market,?
First, BTC Total supply is 21,000,000 pcs of coins. Total supply meaning hanggang dyan lang yan, at hindi na pedeng madagdagan pa.
Btc total circulating supply is 19, 294, 700 as of this writting. Total criculating yan yung total na umiikot na coins (total quantity of coin) na naka HOLD o hawak ng mga Institutions (companies), big traders (whales) at mga small traders gaya natin (retailer traders) at lastly yung mga missing BTC na hindi na ma access yung mga password or nakamatayan ng ng ibang mga holders.
Dyan lang umiikot yung circulating supply na 19.2M pcs na coins..
(Total supply 21M coins) minus (total circulating supply 19.2 coins ) = 1.8M coins.
Yang 1.8 million coins yan naman yung mina-mining ng mga btc miners until YR2140 , yes hindi yan typo erron yr2140 matatapos ang last halving. 118 years from now.
Currently, market as of now ay nasa 3rd halving (3rd cycle) pa lang since btc launch in 2009.. Below is the halving details.
Btc launch: Jan. 3, 2009 (pre-halving) btc price: $0.17/coin (8.5 pesos)
(Pre halving o genesis block tawag dyan at hindi yan kabilang sa cycle).
1st halving: November 28, 2012 , btc price: $12.22/coin (611 pesos)
2nd halving: July 9, 2016, btc price: $657/coin (32,850 pesos)
3rd halving: May 11, 2020, btc price $8000/coin ( 440,000 pesos)
Take note: Above price since 1st halving dinaanan na ng bear market yan,, kada cycle may isang bearmarket na mangyayari,
Bearmarket = price declining (pagbagsak)
Bullmarket = price inclining (pag angat)
1cycle contains 3:1 year bullmarket:bearmarket ratio, inshort approx tatlong taon aangat (incline) ang market at isang taon lang babagsak (decline) ang market sa isang cycle (every 4 years).
Kaya wag kayo magtaka kung humantong from 8.5 pesos to 3 million ang price ng isang bitcoin kasi lamang talaga ang bullmarket kesa sa bearmarket. Inshort, Uptrend o inclining talaga price nyan in longrun kung titignan nyo yung logartihmic monthly o buong weekly chart since 2009.
Paano ba tumaas ang price ng bitcoin MB?
SAGOT: DEMAND AND SUPPLY, Everything na in related sa buy and sell or MARKET demand and supply ang nagpapagalaw ng presyo dyan., as in everything even sa palengke, supermaket etc.
Demand= buyers
Supply = sellers
LAW OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY, Pag tumataas ang demand mag dedecline naman ang supply o hihina, meaning magkakaroon ng INFLATION o pagtaas ng presyo dyan, Vise versa, Pag mahina ang demand o pasok ng buyers lumalakas naman ang supply dyan naman nagccreate ng DEFLATION o pagbaba ng presyo. Pag neutral ang demand vs supply meaning neutral din ang presyo nagiging STAGNANT o walang daloy (AS IS) o magiging stable lang ang presyo, equilibrium o equal price tawag dyan sa economics.
Example:
Faceshield, Nung time na pumutok ang pandemic, Lumakas ang DEMAND ng faceshield, humina ang supply meaning hirap i-sustain ng supply yung demand o pangangailangan ng buyers, anong nangyari sa presyo? Yes nagkaroon ng huge INFLATION, umabot ng 150 pesos per pc yang faceshield, Nung nag decline na yung Demand at lumakas na ang Supply, nag create na ng DEFLATION o pagbagsak ng presyo naging 5 pesos na lang per pc.
Same sa palengke, Pag mahina supply ng SILI papalo ng 1k per kilo yan at babagsak ang presyo pag malakas na ang supply.
Same sa CRYPTO MARKET, Trading is just a simply buy and sell concept.
The more na malakas ang demand nag ccreate ng inflation, meaning kaya umabot ng 3M price nyang btc continuous inclining ang pasok ng demand o buyers since 2009 (launch date) up to now.
Balik tayo sa halving,
1.8 Million ang minine ng mga btc miners, meaning kada halving date nababawasan ang total supply, at yung mga reward blocks na nakukuha ng mga miners during halving date mapupunta yan sa mga account ng mga miners at madadagdag yan sa total circulating ni btc, in short considered demand yan, kasi nabawasan yung total supply na 21Million.
Kaya mapapansin nyo during halving date nagkakaroon talaga ng bullrun kung tawagin, massive inflation o pagtaas ng todo sa presyo ni btc, most of the miners kasi master they are decided to hold their btc reward kesa ibenta.
Yes kung iniisip nyong dyan kayo eentry HOLD next cycle GOOD IDEA YAN... Wala kayong talo dyan yes magpriprofit kayo walang duda,
In fact si ETHERIUM price nya during last halving date is $252/coin (12,600) MAY, 11, 2020 then pumalo ng $4,868 (243.000 pesos) last Nov. 08, 2021 within 19 months, meaning nag 19.3x (19.3 times).
Kung naka buy at nag hold ka kay Ethereum ng halagang 50k pesos sa halving date. Naging 965,000 pesos (returned) na yan last Nov.08, 2021, .
(50,000x19.3= 965,000).
Pero 19.3x is payat, yes payat yan kung iniisip mo na halving date is the best time to buy and hold ng coins nagkakamali kayo.
Officially 1 cycle in crypto cycle cointains 5 phases.. Hindi lang po bearmarket tapos bullmarket na agad after
1cycle cointains 5 part o phases
-Accumulation phase
-Expansion phase
-Re-Accumulation phase (bago mag)..
-Bullmarket
-Bearmarket..
Pinagloloko mo ata kami?? Sabi mo sa taas 3:1 ratio ang bullmarket vs bear market.
Yes, Tama, basically Accumulation, Expansion, Re-accumulation phase is part also of BULLMARKET medyo stagnant lang ang price dyan neutral pero nagkakaroon pa din ng small inflation. Basta may increase ang price part yan ng TORO, Pag deacreasing naman sa price part na yan ng OSO.
ETH price in ACCUMULATION PHASE is $81 (4,050 pesos), mas mababa yan kung i-cocompare mo pag sa halving date ka umentry na may $252 (12,600 pesos ) na price bali kung 19.3x na pera mo from halving date up to now kay eth,
Eto naman gain mo pag umentry ka sa accumulation phase.
$4868 (nov. 08, 2021 price) divided by $81 (accumultion phase price) = 60x
81x4868=60,, (60 times)
Meaning, kung umentry ka ng 50k kay ETH during accumulation phase, 3Million ang returned, mas malaki ng di hamak kumpara kung eentry ka sa 19.3x sa halving date..
50,000 x 60 = 3,000,000.
YES, TAMA, ACCUMULATION PHASE IS THE BEST ENTRY NG HOLD..
(In addition, Bear market has average of 87.8% down in previous 3 bear market, meaning kung 100k ang total holding mo magigigng 13k na lang yan after bear, Kaya Ingat lang ,Ibenta nyo mga holdings nyo bago mag bearmarket kung ayaw nyo manlumo sa magiging outcome nyan).
Wag puro execute ng holding tapos wala kayong idea atleast man lang kailan end of this bullmarket.. Isa pa wag kayo basta-basta gagaya sa ibang holding o hype ng iba dahil hindi kayo sigurado kung alam din nila o inaral ng lubos ang MARKET CYCLE.
Be careful what you wish for master.
I-cocorrect ko lang yung mga declining na nangyayari at umaabot ng 30% down sa price ni btc o sa ibang altcoins during bullmarket CORRECTION po tawag don, Uulitin ko CORRETION po yon at hindi sya officially BEAR MARKET. Bear market isang beses lang yan sa isang cycle.
Make sure DYOR your assets (alts) na paglalaanan nyo, and diversify your portfolio, wag nyong ilagay sa iisang basket alone.
Market is currently at 3rd halving pa lang out of 32 halving bago mag end ang last halving @ yr2140 Kung natataasan na kayo sa price ni btc at ibang mga coins, akala nyo lang yon at Kung inaakala nyong late na ang pasok nyo sa crytpo world nagkakamali kayo, THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING.
SEE YOU THERE...
Salamas
Happy weekend.
-MB
