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17/11/2023

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25/09/2023

Looking at the timeline there are three risk events coming up this week: the Fed Chair Powell speech. The U.S. core PCE price index for August and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown. On the whole. Markets are still digesting the stance of higher and longer Fed rates. But from the trend most people don't have a deep understanding of the statement. The simple fact is that the market has delayed the expected Fed rate cut until September. But what the dot plot reveals is that there will only be two rate cuts of 25 bps hikes next year. Follow this reasoning. The first rate cut favored by the Fed is in November next year. For now the market is in everything goes down mode. There are almost no rising markets. This situation is very rare. It's a precursor to an imminent burst of volatility. An opportunity for short term traders to wait and buy in bulk. Let's keep more cash to wait for this moment.

22/09/2023

Tense times are coming. At one point today the 10-year US bond yield rose above the 4.5% level. At the same time the dollar index touched a high of 105.42. The highest point of this uptrend has been breached. Today we will be closely watching the US Markit Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for September shortly after the US stock market opens. in addition, a number of Fed officials including Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Fed Governor Cook, both of whom are voting members, will be speaking at various events throughout the day. Many believe that the Fed is entering the final phase of its fight against inflation and that the danger alarm is about to be lifted. But it isn't. It's like an airplane. The takeoff phase and the landing phase are the moments when the shaking is the most violent. Lets relentlessly pursue this fine Friday!

21/09/2023

stocks In yesterday's FOMC interest rate meeting, the decision to pause the rate hike was already within our expectations. The September dot plot did not update, which is currently favorable for the risk markets, as it implies a lower probability of a rate hike at the November FOMC meeting. Even if there is another rate hike, it is likely to occur in December, and according to the dot plot, December is probably the last rate hike in this cycle.
However, the Fed's public information indicates that more members still prefer another rate hike within 2023. Additionally, there have been significant changes in the 2024 interest rate projections compared to June. In June, the expected 2024 rate was 4.6%, but in this meeting, it was raised to 5.1%. If the final rate ends up at 5.75% - it means there will be only two rate cuts in 2024. Regarding rate cuts. Powell was very firm, stating that it is not currently the time to discuss rate cuts and that maintaining higher rates is beneficial for the Fed to control inflation.
Overall, yesterday's FOMC meeting was more hawkish than we had imagined, but it still aligns with our expectations. For the risk markets, especially the US stock market, we are more certain of a relatively calm period until the December FOMC meeting. That's why we mentioned that October will be the most important month among the trading months in the second half of the year! Based on all the data we have collected so far, we have already made plans for this. Regardless, we will maintain a clear head and assist all members in maximizing their profits.

20/09/2023

stocks The Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution announcement is just around the corner. Global risk markets are on edge. Markets expect the Fed to keep rates between 5.25%-5.0%. So this is unimportant news. But we should focus on the dot plot, which is released every three months. This time more than half of the officials are expected to think the Fed is done raising rates (dovish). But it will ultimately show a preference for one more rate hike. At this meeting the Fed will also release its latest forecasts for the economy. It is expected to revise GDP upwards. the unemployment rate and revise inflation forecasts downwards. We predict that this will lead to a rise in the US Dollar Index after the first session. This will lead to pressure on the US stock market. Overall. The Fed's dot plot release may reveal a biased hawkish signal. However, Powell will appropriately shed some dovish information to achieve a balance. Minimize the volatility of the global market. Let's continue to burn with passion to beat the mid-week lows and take on the day!

18/09/2023

A new trading week has begun. On the economic data front. No particularly important first-line data appeared. But Friday's U.S. September Markit manufacturing and services PMI preliminary value is worth paying attention to. Of course the most important is this week's Federal Reserve interest rate resolution. We think the key to this meeting will be for the auto workers' strike to be worsened. Because this will affect the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rates. Over the weekend there was a message circulating on Wall Street. There was a trade in the market betting on a cumulative rate cut of up to 200 basis points by the middle of next year. So the second focus of this meeting is to "discuss how long to maintain high interest rates", whether the "how long" quantified into a specific "number" is very important to us. Let's keep chasing this beautiful day.

15/09/2023

stocks Today's quadruple witching day arrives on what will be the largest volume on record. Approximately $3.9 trillion in financial derivatives expire. The impact of the Fourth Witching Day on the markets in the week following is negative, with a 60-70% chance that the market will go down, and the average decline is between 1.4-1.9%, while in December every year, the stock market performs well in the week following the Fourth Witching Day at the same time that the U.S. auto union workers go on strike. This is one of the largest industrial labor actions in the U.S. in recent years. If the strike continues, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data released next month could fall into negative territory, which is the Fed's biggest worry and the most far-reaching point for financial markets. If a variable event occurs in the US today, the impact is bound to spread. Let's follow the club's footsteps in relentless pursuit of this day!

14/09/2023

stocks In this era of central banking which is highly dependent on data. When the PPI data was released the Dollar Index rose 0.5% at one point. This is not a mixed bag of data, but one that supports the Fed continuing to raise interest rates. The data is closely watched as it is usually released a week before the Fed's two-day policy meeting. The Fed is carefully controlling the volatility of the market, striving for no surprises, and financial market stability is a prerequisite for them to achieve the feat of fighting inflation without causing a recession. Officials are likely to leave interest rates unchanged at their September meeting while discussing the need for another rate hike in November or December to maintain the recent trend of slowing inflation and economic activity. Overall there are now signs of a rebound in inflation as seen through recent data releases. This will also result in the market being more inclined towards a rate hike. However, the market movement has not reacted much. This deserves a deeper reading. Let's continue to relentlessly pursue this beautiful day.

13/09/2023

stocks From what the market is seeing this inflation will be the most difficult since the Fed started the current rate hike cycle. The most difficult to interpret. The CPI data released was very much as we predicted without any change. the CPI rose 3.6% year-on-year, up 0.6% from a year earlier; the core CPI rose 4.3% year-on-year, up 0.2% from a year earlier. Because the core CPI rose 0.2% on a year-over-year basis, this increase is in line with the Fed 2% inflation target. In fact, the key is still to see how Wall Street speculation, sometimes a good data will be hard to be interpreted by Wall Street as negative, the list goes on and on. Trading looks simple, but if there is no systematic study, there will be no reverence. Take the CPI data released today, retail investors simply focus on the data "greater than expected or less than expected", but the figures mean nothing. Data for the Federal Reserve means nothing, but also know nothing, to know that the Federal Reserve to analyze the issue of the perspective and the market is completely different. Let us relentlessly pursue this beautiful day.

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