22/08/2024
I really enjoyed the talk that Stephen Toplis, Head Economist at BNZ Partners the other night.
We managed to have a chat afterwards and laughed about how we are the only two guys wearing ties in the room, the talk was humorous, great content and relevant in this market.
My key take aways;
- The economy shattered and we are all feeling it, (Know this..)
- More drop in OCR rates, to come for the next 18 months, (Whoop whoop!)
- Tax cuts will help the economy,
- New Zealand moves with the rest of the world, we go where every other country goes, (Always thought we were special.. obviously now)
- Manufacturings has been contracting for the last 17 months, it’s at its worse levels since early 90’s,
- Inflation needs to go to 1-3% for NZ to bounce back, (This will be good to see)
- Climate chanage is a big factor in insuranace increases, (Knew it but never really realised)
- On average Rates and Insurance has risen by 16%,
Everyone is riding short, looking at the 6-12 months terms, (Feeling this…)
- OCR cash rate could go down to 2.25-2.50% at bottom of the cycle, (Expecting end of ‘27.. fix long)
- AI, attacks the middle to high income earner roles,
- Long period of transition before people feel great about the economy again.
Seems like hunker down and be ready for the long ride…
