12/06/2026
Early Warning Signs Before Banks Move Rates
⚠️ Wholesale Rates Move First
Changes in wholesale funding costs typically appear before retail mortgage rate adjustments.
⚠️ Inflation Staying Elevated
Q1 inflation remains around 3.1%, keeping pressure on the RBNZ.
⚠️ OCR Commentary Changes
Pay attention to:
More hawkish RBNZ language
Reduced discussion of rate cuts
Increased discussion of inflation persistence
These often precede bank pricing changes.
⚠️ Quiet Bank Policy Tweaks
Banks often adjust:
Servicing test rates
Cashback offers
Credit appetite
DTI interpretation
before changing headline mortgage rates.
⚠️ Rising Fuel and Imported Inflation
Fuel-price shocks and global inflation pressures are increasingly being cited as risks to the interest-rate outlook.