Matthew Beilensohn - Forsyth Barr Investment Adviser

17/01/2023

- House prices are tumbling...and that's okay

New Zealand’s extreme house prices have been exposed by rising mortgage rates, tightened bank lending, and a building boom that’s finally delivering enough houses. House prices have already experienced the largest nominal decline on record, down an average of -14% across the country. We suspect there is more to come.

Read the full report here: http://ow.ly/pYzx50M2G4B

17/01/2023

Navigating the Stock Market: The Bear Market and its Potential for Recovery.

Last year, the S&P 500's bear market fell to a low of 3577 on October 14, which some technical analysts view as a successful retest of its June low of 3666. This is because some analysts believe that a retest of a previous low can provide a solid foundation for the market to rebound and move forward.

Currently, the S&P 500 has risen by 11.8% since then and it is back slightly above its 200-day moving average. This is the fourth attempt by the market to keep the rally going above its 200-day moving average. Could it be successful this time in breaking into a clear uptrend? Certainly, some sectors like the industrial sector have done so.

The first two attempts failed as Fed officials turned increasingly hawkish. They are still hawkish, but increasingly perceived to be approaching the terminal rate of the federal funds rate, while the economy remains resilient for now as inflation continues to moderate. The last 6 months of US inflation are running at an annualised rate of only 1.8%.

Adding to the positive outlook, we have also seen recent developments in the Euro area, with Goldman Sachs no longer forecasting a recession for the region. This is a significant shift in sentiment, and one that could have a positive impact on the global economy. Additionally, China's reopening can also be positive for global growth as it is the world's second-largest economy, and any recovery in China could have a ripple effect on other countries.

In light of this information, we are seeing more positives in the market. However, as always, we advise our clients to review their individual investment goals and risk tolerance before making any decisions.

This article does not constitute advice and is not necessarily representative of the views of Forsyth Barr.

14/01/2023

"Investing in the Global Stock Market: A Potentially Improving Outlook Amid Uncertainty"

The global economy has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting inflation and higher interest rates, and there is still a lot of uncertainty about the future. However, recent developments in the US, China, and Europe suggest that the market may be showing signs of potential recovery, and investor sentiment could improve from current low levels.

It's worth noting that historically, investor sentiment has often been a leading indicator of future stock market performance. When sentiment is low, it can be an indication that the market has already priced in a lot of negative news, and there is potential for a rebound. This is why it can be rewarding to buy stocks when sentiment is low, if you believe that the market has not yet fully reflected the positive developments that are taking place.

One of the most significant developments is the decline in inflation in the US, which has fallen from a peak of 9.1% to 6.5% in December 2022. The last 6 months CPI figures in the US only totalled 0.9%, or 1.8% annualised, which could indicate that the end of interest rate hikes is near, which is a positive sign for the economy and can provide opportunities for investors.

Another key driver of a recovery is the reopening of China's economy, which is providing many opportunities for global trade and investment. The country's manufacturing sector, consumer market, and tourism industry could all be providing opportunities for businesses around the world.

Additionally, the Euro zone economy is showing signs of potentially avoiding a recession, as the plunging gas prices which were impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war along with a relatively warm winter are aiding the economy. Furthermore, the reopening of borders and an increase in travel and tourism are providing opportunities for investors in the travel and hospitality sectors.

It's important to note that despite these positive signs, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the market. However, falling markets may have already priced in a lot of bad news and it's worth noting that bear markets are often followed by very rewarding bull markets. It's important to conduct thorough research and consult with financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

This commentary does not constitute advice, is put together by myself and is not necessarily representative of the views of Forsyth Barr.

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21/04/2022

Matt Sturmer, Forsyth Barr Director/Senior Analyst - Fixed Income, discusses the impact of rising interest rates on your bond portfolio.

Read the full report here: http://ow.ly/AvfH50IOgK9

17/11/2021

The return to lockdowns has seen the majority of the workforce resume working from home, which, once again, brings the future of the office back into the spotlight. Read our latest Focus article here: http://ow.ly/rOuI50G1XG2

17/11/2021

A share market index measures the performance of a basket of stocks. Indices are an important tool in financial markets. They are used to calculate the performance of a market... Read our latest Focus article here: http://ow.ly/G9rH50GcCiq

17/11/2021

This week the Consumer Price Index (CPI), New Zealand’s principal measure of inflation, hit 4.9%. Outside of when oil briefly exceeded US$140/bbl in 2008 and the impact of GST hikes in 2010... Read more in our latest Focus article:
http://ow.ly/sLPN50GvIov

28/02/2021

Meet 'Forsyth' the kiwi. We are very pleased to be involved in the release of 14 kiwi with the Pukenui Forest Trust over the weekend. Our Whangarei team had a great time joining the Pukenui Trust Rangers to es**rt the kiwi into their new homes in the forest.

16/11/2020

- How to invest when interest rates are so low.

Join Martin Hawes in the Wellington region as he outlines how to adopt an investment approach in a COVID-19 world and explains the opportunities that now exist for those over 65. For more info and to register visit: http://ow.ly/MAlr50ChbCy

Managed by Forsyth Barr Investment Management Limited. Product Disclosure Statement available at summer.co.nz. A disclosure statement for Martin Hawes is available on request and free of charge.

31/10/2020

We are very pleased to announce today we have recommitted to supporting Dunedin’s stadium in a 10-year naming rights agreement.

“Many people will know that the very first Forsyth Barr office opened here in 1936. We’re committed supporters of the region and staunch advocates for what Dunedin and Otago deliver to New Zealand,” Forsyth Barr Board Chair David Kirk. Read more: http://ow.ly/SrEZ50C4mKy

Follow Forsyth Barr Stadium & Dunedin Centre & Dunedin Town Hall

21/10/2020

For the seventh consecutive year Forsyth Barr has been rated number one for strategy and quantitative research in the 2020 INFINZ Awards.

More broadly, Forsyth Barr ranked first or second in 10 of the 13 research sectors judged.

This recognition of the quality of our research and the breadth of expertise reinforces Forsyth Barr’s reputation as one of New Zealand’s leading full-service investment firms.

Read the full detail here: http://ow.ly/ccFg50BYdr7

21/10/2020

We are very pleased to have been awarded 'Sharebroking Firm of the Year' at the INFINZ Awards last night.

In making the award the judges noted Forsyth Barr displayed "exceptional corporate and industry success, a strong and consistent research offering and top tier deal ex*****on."

The INFINZ awards are determined by polling New Zealand-based fund managers which are active investors in Australasian equities.

Neil Paviour-Smith, Forsyth Barr CEO said “this award recognises an outstanding performance from our Research and Institutional Equities teams. As these awards are judged directly by the industry, this is a very welcome acknowledgement of performance from our clients”.