29/03/2017
Market update 30 March 2017
The property market has cooled rapidly due to loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions, higher interest rates and credit criteria impact.
Although the cooling of the market will likely extend for months to come, the imbalance between supply and demand should keep the market supported and ready to build more momentum down the track should conditions permit.
However, higher interest rates will be the enemy here and policymakers are more serious in their desire to reduce excessive lending growth. This will reduce the potential for the market to lift in a material fashion.
The supply and demand imbalance is mostly seen in Auckland where the supply (building consents are falling) can’t keep up with the demand (Strong net migration).
Mortgage rates remain the same as they were a month ago, with a very slight rise in the average floating rate. A trend of gradually rising rates started late last year and will continue to slowly rise.
The Reserve Bank insists that it doesn’t intend lifting the OCR any time soon, let's see what happens in the next review on 11 May 17. As for interest rates, ANZ suggests the 1 year rate remains the sweet spot. Long-term mortgage rates are set to rise as global interest rates lift and as term deposit competition intensifies; but this is already well incorporated into the term structure of interest rates. In other words, breakevens remain higher than where we ultimately expect rates to get to.
To read more, check out ANZ's property focus:
http://www.anz.co.nz/about-us/economic-markets-research/property-focus/