Fin Select New Zealand

03/06/2026

03 June 2026
International
In yesterday’s trading session, the DXY received support from the release of the JOLTS Job Openings data, which came in at 7,618k compared to the previous reading of 6,866k, marking an almost two-year high. This led to the dollar clawing back some of the losses incurred earlier in the session amid continuing uncertainties in the Middle East. The index opened for trading at 99.166, touched an intraday high of 99.329, and closed the session at 99.219.

The EUR had a mixed day as it strengthened during the earlier part of the session following the release of Eurozone CPI data, which rose to 3.2% YoY from a previous reading of 3.0%. On a MoM basis, CPI came in at 0.1% compared to the prior reading of 1.0%. Core inflation also increased to 2.5% from a previous 2.2%. The data further reinforced expectations of additional ECB tightening, providing support for the currency and helping it reach an intraday high of $1.1656. The dollar regained some ground towards the end of the session, with the EUR closing at $1.1631.

The pound remained relatively stable for most of the day, trading with a slightly firmer bias. Cable opened at $1.3457, touched an intraday high of $1.3482, and went on to close at $1.3465. Political uncertainty continues to linger; however, the currency was able to withstand much of this pressure during yesterday’s session.

The yuan remained stable in yesterday’s trading session as Asian currencies initially gained amid geopolitical concerns before pulling back against a resilient dollar. The yuan opened for trading at 6.7639/$, touched an intraday high of 6.7651/$, and closed the day at 6.7628/$.

ZAR

The local currency staged a recovery, reversing the losses recorded in the previous session as renewed risk-on sentiment returned to the market with firmer commodity prices, while investors remained cautious amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations, which continue to influence market sentiment. Additional support came from vehicle sales data, which showed a 2.1% month-on-month increase in May. As a result, the rand strengthened during the session, closing at R16.2281/$ after opening weaker at R16.3463/$.

On the data front, attention today will be focused on local manufacturing figures, while internationally, markets will be monitoring a range of economic releases, including ADP employment data from the United States and manufacturing data from Germany, among others. The rand is likely to take direction from these data releases, as well as any developments emerging from the ongoing US-Iran talks.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.20/$ - R16.40/$

02/06/2026

Good news coming for the rand today …..🍾

01/06/2026

Think keeping your money in South Africa is the "safe" option? It might be the riskiest bet you're making. The JSE is home to some excellent companies - but it's less than 1% of global market capitalisation. That means 99% of the world's investment opportunities sit completely outside your portfolio if you're only invested locally.

And the risks of staying concentrated aren't theoretical:

• Rand depreciation steadily erodes your purchasing power
• Policy uncertainty can move the JSE in a single news cycle
• Energy and logistics challenges weigh on local earnings
• Heavy exposure to a handful of sectors, with little access to the global growth that's driven wealth over the past decade

This isn't doom and gloom about South Africa. It's a basic investment truth: concentration in any single market is risky - and the smaller and more volatile the market, the riskier it gets. Diversification is the most fundamental principle in investing. For South Africans, that means looking beyond our borders.

The real question isn't whether you should invest offshore. It's why you haven't yet.

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[email protected] or DM us to start the conversation.

A doubled SDA. A grey list exit. A stable budget. But with the Iran conflict rocking markets, delaying your offshore diversification just got a lot more expensive.

01/06/2026

If you have spent any time researching how to formally leave South Africa’s financial and tax system, you have almost certainly encountered two terms that seem to mean the same thing: financial emigration and tax emigration. They get used interchangeably in Facebook groups, by friends at braais, by well-meaning relatives, and even by some professionals who should know better. Our helpful guide explains more...

01/06/2026

If you are considering leaving South Africa permanently - or you have already moved abroad and are thinking about formalising your tax emigration - there is one concept that blindsides more people than any other...exit tax. Read our helpful guide below.

Exit tax under Section 9H can cost you hundreds of thousands. Here is what gets caught, what changed in 2026, and how to plan.

01/06/2026

01 June 2026
International
The Dollar Index opened Friday’s session at 98.998 and traded to an intraday low of 98.751 before closing marginally lower at 98.908. The USD came under pressure amid renewed optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran, which reduced safe-haven demand for the greenback. This improvement in global risk sentiment led to a reversal of earlier dollar strength seen during the week, which had been supported by a “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative following elevated U.S. inflation.

The euro and pound were both beneficiaries of the softer dollar during Friday’s trading session as sentiment shifted on the back of the anticipated ceasefire deal. The euro opened at $1.1646, reached an intraday high of $1.1686, and closed at $1.1667. Pound sterling also strengthened against the dollar, as the improvement in global risk sentiment outweighed lingering concerns around slowing UK growth. The currency pair opened at $1.3444, touched a high of $1.3485, and closed at $1.3453.

The Chinese yuan remained relatively stable during Friday’s session, opening at 6.7716/$, trading to a high of 6.7750/$, and closing the week at 6.7648/$.

ZAR

The Rand traded firmly on Friday, strengthening for most of the session as markets digested several local economic data releases. Support for the currency came from the South African Reserve Bank's interest rate announcement on Thursday, which saw a rate hike and was viewed as Rand-positive. This strength came despite South Africa's merchandise trade surplus narrowing sharply to R15.2 billion in April from a revised R30.2 billion previously. The Rand appreciated to an intraday low of R16.17/$ after opening at R16.2350/$.

Locally, today's economic calendar is quiet, leaving the Rand likely to take its direction from global market sentiment and any developments on the geopolitical. And on the international front, activity rather muted as well with the US expected to release their manufacturing data.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.10/$ - R16.40/$

27/05/2026

26 May 2026:

International:

The dollar ended the session stronger, supported by its safe-haven appeal amid renewed geopolitical tensions. The fragile US-Iran truce came under strain following US strikes in southern Iran, while mediators continued efforts to bring both sides back to the negotiating table. Iran’s threats against US assets in the region further heightened market caution, with the dollar likely to remain sensitive to any further escalation. The index opened at 98.988, climbed to a high of 99.251, and closed firmer at 99.169.

The euro and pound both traded on the back foot during the session as broad-based dollar strength and heightened geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand for the greenback. The euro came under pressure despite hawkish ECB commentary supporting the prospect of a June rate hike, while sterling remained largely rangebound as cautious market sentiment offset support from expectations that the Bank of England will maintain a measured approach to policy easing. With investors focused on developments in the Middle East and broader risk sentiment, EUR/USD opened at $1.1636, traded to a low of $1.1620, and closed marginally weaker at $1.1633, while GBP/USD opened at $1.3449, reached a high of $1.3465, and closed slightly lower at $1.3448.

The offshore yuan traded in a narrow range yesterday as subdued trading conditions and improving global risk sentiment kept USD/CNH broadly stable. Softer safe-haven demand for the dollar, amid easing geopolitical tensions and optimism around diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, provided modest support to the yuan, while investors continued to monitor the PBOC’s stance on maintaining orderly currency moves. USD/CNH opened at 6.7837/$, traded to a high of 6.7895/$, and closed marginally weaker at 6.7845/$.

ZAR

The rand finally succumbed to the dollar to end its session weaker. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the fragility of the truce, buoying risk aversion. Domestically, SA’s composite business cycle indicator ticked up 2.4% in March highlighting improved momentum in the economy. The local opened at R16.3647/$ before trading to a low of R16.3325/$ and closing at R16.3525/$.
On the data front we have French consumer confidence out at 8:45am with API crude, gas and distillate fuel stocks printing at bedtime. Tomorrow brings a feast by way of US inflation data, personal consumption, GDP and jobless claims in the afternoon with our local MPC wrapping up the day.


Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.3000/$ - R16.4500/$

25/05/2026

25 May 2026:

International:

The dollar index traded firmer on Friday, opening at 99.123 and ranging between 99.064 and 99.515 before closing at 99.257. Safe-haven demand continued to support the unit amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment disappointed, with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 44.8 from 48.2 and below expectations of 48.2 - highlighting growing concerns around the consumer outlook amid elevated inflation expectations and geopolitical risks.

The euro remained under pressure as broad dollar strength dominated sentiment. EUR/USD opened at $1.1619, traded to a low of $1.1589, and closed at $1.1604. German data was modestly supportive, with the IFO Business Climate, Current Conditions, and Expectations indices all improving slightly, while the GfK Consumer Sentiment Index rose to -29.8 from -33.3. However, the gains failed to lift the single currency as markets continued to favour the dollar amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Sterling traded largely flat, with GBP/USD opening at $1.3435 and closing marginally lower at $1.3434. UK consumer confidence improved, with the GfK Consumer Confidence Index rising to -23 from -25 and beating expectations of -28. However, weaker retail sales weighed on sentiment after monthly sales contracted by 1.3%, reversing the prior 0.7% increase. Despite the mixed data, Sterling remained range-bound as broader dollar flows continued to drive markets.

Against a backdrop of limited domestic catalysts, the stronger dollar environment continued to weigh on sentiment and kept the Chinese Yuan on the defensive for most of the trading session. The yuan opened the day at $6.8005 and traded between a session high of $6.8046 and a low of $6.7921 before closing at $6.7991.

ZAR

The local unit was fairly range bound before edging into the green before the weekend. Markets don’t seem to be pricing in much domestic political risk premia with the rand making a case for itself to the emerging markets risk barometer. The rand has been particularly sensitive to headlines particularly those that push up the fear gauge and have investors seeking havens. The rand opened at R16.4824/$ before trading to a low of R16.3850/$ and closing at R16.4700/$

On the data front despite the dollar holiday, we domestic leading indicator data with a smattering of US data out tomorrow.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.2000/$ - R16.4500/$

14/05/2026

14 May 2026:

International:

The dollar index advanced on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected US inflation data reinforced a more hawkish market outlook. US producer inflation rose 6% year-on-year in April, above forecasts. While core producer prices (which exclude food and energy) increased by 5.2%. Higher freight and transportation costs linked to Middle East disruptions continued to fuel inflation concerns, with economists expecting energy and shipping costs to remain elevated even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The index climbed from an opening level of 98.309 to a high of 98.598 before closing at 98.524.
The euro eased from earlier gains as markets weighed stalled US-Iran negotiations, ongoing Middle East tensions, and expectations of further ECB rate hikes. German wholesale inflation accelerated to 6.3% year-on-year in April, while Eurozone Q1 growth was confirmed at a modest 0.1%, highlighting slowing economic momentum alongside persistent inflation pressures. The euro fell from an opening level of $1.1735 to a low of $1.1695 before closing at $1.1710.
The pound weakened on Wednesday amid rising UK political uncertainty following reports that Wes Streeting could challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for leadership. Ongoing Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices also fuelled inflation concerns, with markets pricing in nearly three additional Bank of England rate hikes by year-end. Investors remained cautious ahead of key UK GDP data, while sterling fell from $1.3539 to a low of $1.3482 before closing at $1.3522.
The offshore yuan remained broadly stable on Wednesday as investors awaited the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Markets focused on potential developments around trade relations, tariffs, and broader geopolitical issues, with expectations that both sides will seek to extend the current trade truce. The yuan opened at 6.7900/$, strengthened to 6.7784, and later closed at 6.7858/$
ZAR
The Rand opened yesterday’s session at R16.5042/$, strengthening throughout the day to an intraday low of R16.3706/$, as the currency continued to take directional cues from improving global risk sentiment. Price-level concerns in the United States weighed on the dollar, allowing emerging market currencies to extend gains. Our local currency closed firmer at a level of R16.3979/$, maintaining positive momentum.

On the data front, market participants will remain focused on US initial jobless and retail sales data for further hints on the state of the economy. We can also expect UK’s GDP, industrial and manufacturing production figures. On the local data calendar , we have mining production figures due this morning. The rand will likely take cues from these indicators, as well as ongoing geopolitical developments and other economic headlines that may influence global sentiment


Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.3000/$ - R16.6000/$