Fin Select New Zealand

15/10/2026

14/10/2026

Dear Client


14 October 2026
International
The dollar index edged lower on Tuesday ahead of this afternoon’s US CPI data release. The index started the day on a firm footing, opening at 102.212 and briefly touching a high of 102.194 before losing momentum and retreating to a low of 102.183. Cautious market sentiment, declining treasury yields and dovish-leaning comments from New York Fed President John Williams that tempered expectations for further monetary tightening, weighed on the unit. The index recovered modestly from its lows to close at 102.180.
The euro regained ground on Tuesday, snapping a two-session losing streak. The single currency opened at $1.1154 and rallied to a high of $1.1204, buoyed by a softer dollar, before ending the session at $1.1197.
The pound registered gains yesterday, supported by a weaker dollar and growing expectations of a Bank of England rate hike at its upcoming meeting. The sterling opened at $1.3206 and strengthened to a high of $1.3259. Better than anticipated BRC retail sales data provided further support, with sales rising 1.0% y/y in September, up from 0.5% in August. The pound later pared some of its gains to close the session at $1.3252.
The offshore yuan recovered modestly on Tuesday, also supported by a softer US dollar, while trading remained cautious ahead of today’s Chinese CPI release. The yuan opened at CNH6.6947/$ before declining to a session low of CNH6.6895/$ as the unit strengthened. The unit later pared some of its gains, closing the session at CNH6.6930/$.
ZAR
Yesterday was a positive day for the rand, with the local currency benefiting from broad-based US dollar weakness. The rand opened at R16.5375/$, which ultimately proved to be the weakest level of the session. The trading day saw the release of South Africa's Mining Production figures, which contracted by 12.7% YoY versus a previous reading of -7.5%, while month-on-month production declined by 5.4% compared to -7.4% previously. Gold Production came in at -5.7% YoY, an improvement from the prior -7.4% reading. Despite the softer domestic data, market focus remained firmly on the weaker dollar, allowing the rand to rally and touch an intraday best level of R16.4525/$.

The local calendar is relatively quiet today, with no major domestic data releases scheduled. In the United States, attention will be on CPI inflation data and MBA Mortgage Applications, both of which could provide further insight into the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. The Eurozone will see the release of CPI figures from Spain and Finland, while the United Kingdom's calendar is quiet. China, meanwhile, will publish Inflation and Trade Balance data, which could influence broader emerging market sentiment and commodity-linked currencies.

13/10/2026

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12/10/2026

12 October 2026
International
The dollar index ticked higher on Friday, holding above the 102.00 level. The dollar started the session at 102.128 and slipped to a low of 101.920 as treasury yields softened and oil prices eased. The dollar managed to regain some momentum later in the session as market sentiment remained cautious. The unit recovered to an intraday high of 102.335 before closing at 102.213
The euro weakened modestly during Friday’s trading session. The unit opened at $1.1211 and traded in a narrow range throughout the session. The euro weakened to an intraday low of $1.1187, as the dollar strengthened, before recouping some of its losses to end the day at $1.1201.
The pound outperformed its European counterpart and extended its two-day winning streak, shrugging off a stronger dollar on the day. The unit opened at $1.3227 and rose to an intraday high of $1.3250 before ending the week at $1.3231.
The offshore yuan strengthened on Friday, despite a firmer dollar and as trading activity normalized following China's return from the Golden Week holiday. The unit opened at CNH6.7032/$ and strengthened to a low of CNH6.6910/$, finding support from post-holiday flows. The yuan ended the session at CNH6.6927/$
ZAR
It was a range-bound trading session for the rand, albeit with a positive bias. A modest pullback in oil prices provided support for the local currency, which strengthened from an opening level of R16.5450/$ to an intraday best of R16.5025/$. The rand remains sensitive to geopolitical developments. However, reports on Friday that President Trump had reportedly ruled out further strikes on Iran until after the mid-term elections boosted global risk sentiment. As a result, the rand benefited from improved investor appetite for emerging market assets and ranked among the top-performing emerging market currencies on the day, closing at R16.5075/$
Looking ahead, the local economic calendar features the release of the SACCI Business Confidence Index. In the United States, markets will be closed for a public holiday. The Eurozone calendar is also relatively light, with Latvia's Trade Balance data being the most notable release. The United Kingdom has no major economic data scheduled, while China will kick off the week with the publication of Money Supply figures

30/09/2026

30 September 2026
International
The US Dollar Index opened yesterday's session at 101.194 and initially strengthened, reaching an intraday high of 101.612 as investors sought safety in the greenback. However, the dollar's gains retracted following weaker-than-expected US economic data releases. US Consumer Confidence declined sharply from 89.4 to 81.9, highlighting growing concerns regarding the economic outlook, while JOLTS Job Openings fell from 7.271 million to 7.079 million, signalling a gradual cooling of labour market conditions. Despite the softer data, the Dollar Index managed to close higher on the day at 101.372.

The euro opened at $1.1370 and came under pressure as broad-based dollar strength pushed the currency to an intraday low of $1.1310. Economic data from the Eurozone was largely uneventful, with Consumer Confidence remaining unchanged at -16.5, in line with market expectations. The euro recovered some lost ground later in the session but ultimately ended the day weaker at $1.1340.

The British pound started the session at $1.3251 and weakened to a low of $1.3199 against the stronger US dollar amid a relatively quiet UK economic calendar. Improved risk sentiment later in the trading day allowed sterling to recoup some of its losses, closing marginally firmer at $1.3229.

The Chinese yuan continued its recent strengthening trend, opening at CNY6.7126/$ and appreciating to an intraday low of CNY6.7027/$. With limited domestic economic catalysts, the yuan's gains were largely driven by broader market dynamics and sustained investor confidence in the currency. The yuan ended the session slightly off its strongest levels at CNY6.7080/$.
ZAR
The South African rand remained under pressure for most of yesterday’s session as the risk-off environment continued to weigh on sentiment, while the US dollar maintained its dominance. Despite the earlier weakness, the rand showed some resilience later in the day, strengthening to an intraday low of R16.3454/$ before closing the session at around R16.40/$.

In terms of data releases today, locally we have South Africa's budget balance, money supply, and producer price index. Internationally, the focus will be on US employment numbers and other key economic data releases, as well as German retail sales and unemployment data. The Rand is likely to take direction from both local and global economic data releases and could potentially see further volatility depending on developments on the geopolitical front.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.3000/$ - R16.4000/$

28/09/2026

28 September 2026
International
The US Dollar Index opened Friday's session at 101.269 before coming under pressure and declining to an intraday low of 100.872, reversing the strengthening trend observed throughout the week. US Durable Goods Orders slowed from 1.1% to 0.0%, better than market expectations. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index unexpectedly improved from 47.8 to 48.1. Despite the relatively resilient data, the dollar remained on the back foot and closed the session lower, at 100.971.

The euro opened at $1.1376 and strengthened to an intraday high of $1.1411. With limited economic data from the Eurozone, the currency largely took its direction from broad US dollar weakness. The euro maintained its gains throughout the session, ending the day firmer at $1.1391.

The British pound began the session at $1.3219 and advanced to an intraday peak of $1.3263, supported by hawkish comments from Bank of England’s Governor, Andrew Bailey, which reinforced expectations of a restrictive monetary policy stance. The Sterling retained most of its gains and closed the day at $1.3251.

The Chinese yuan opened at 6.7156/$ and traded to an intraday high of 6.7257/$, finding support from optimism surrounding a potential trade agreement between the United States and China. Trading activity was somewhat subdued as mainland Chinese markets were closed for a public holiday. Nevertheless, the yuan remained well supported, finishing the session at 6.7227/$.
ZAR
The South African rand closed the week on a stronger footing, outperforming most of its emerging market peers as investors continued to digest the South African Reserve Bank's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The hawkish tone accompanying the decision reinforced expectations that the higher interest rate environment may remain in place for longer, supporting demand for local assets and improving risk sentiment towards the Rand. As a result, the local currency strengthened during Friday's session, closing at R16.2750/$ after trading as weak as R16.44/$ earlier in the day.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar is relatively quiet today, both locally and on the international front, as such, the rand is likely to take its cue from any notable geopolitical or economic developments.
Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.2500/$ - R16.4500/$

16/09/2026

16 September 2026
International
The Dollar Index recorded another day of gains as investors remained cautious ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Market participants continued to price in a higher probability of an interest rate hike, while rising US Treasury yields supported demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency. As a result, the Dollar Index closed the session at 99.615, up from an opening level of 99.480.
The euro remained under pressure during yesterday’s session, trading lower against a stronger dollar as markets shifted their focus to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. This was despite the release of a positive Eurozone trade balance report, which came in better than expected, showing a surplus of €14.2 billion compared to the previous reading of €8.6 billion. As a result, the single currency closed the session weaker at $1.1543.
The pound followed suit, trading lower as investors awaited the Bank of England's interest rate announcement due on Thursday. The pound ended the session at $1.3476, after reaching an intraday high of $1.3501.
The Chinese yuan traded weaker during yesterday’s session amid a stronger dollar environment. The currency was further weighed down by retail sales data, which slowed to 0.4% in August, coming in below market expectations. Adding to the weaker sentiment, China's surveyed urban unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August from 5.2% in the previous month. As a result, the yuan closed the session weaker at 6.7123/$.
ZAR
The rand managed to claw back modest gains during yesterday's session, although upside momentum remained constrained by a firmer US dollar as markets adopted a cautious stance ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The local unit opened the day at R16.2700/$ and initially came under pressure, touching an intraday high of R16.3500/$ before recovering to a low of R16.2175/$. Despite the volatile trading range, the rand ultimately closed at R16.2525/$, benefiting from selective demand for emerging market currencies.
Attention now turns to a busy economic calendar, with several key risk events scheduled throughout the day. On the domestic front, Retail Sales data will provide insight into consumer spending trends and the broader health of the economy. Internationally, markets will digest a raft of important releases from the UK, US, and Eurozone, all of which could influence interest rate expectations and overall risk sentiment. In the absence of strong local catalysts, the rand is expected to remain highly sensitive to offshore developments.


Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.1500/$ - R16.3500/$

15/09/2026

15 September 2026
International
The dollar index started the week on an upward trajectory and maintained its gains for most of the session. The dollar index found support from rising Treasury yields ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting later in the week, as markets priced in the possibility of a rate hike following recent inflation data. This prompted investors to adopt a cautious stance ahead of the event and seek the relative safety of the dollar. As a result, the dollar index closed the session higher at 99.391, after reaching an intraday high of 99.736.
The single currency lacked impetus during yesterday’s session and succumbed to dollar strength, continuing its downward trend for most of the day before closing weaker at $1.1548. The pound reversed course and surrendered some of the marginal gains recorded in the previous session. This occurred despite positive economic data releases from the prior day, as a stronger dollar environment weighed on the currency. As a result, the pound settled lower at $1.3464 after reaching an intraday high of $1.3527.
The Chinese yuan faced headwinds during yesterday’s session as the dollar continued to trade firmer against most major currencies. This resulted in the yuan weakening over the course of the day, with USD/CNY closing the session at 6.7096/$ after opening at 6.7088/$.
ZAR
The rand kicked off the week on the back foot, tracking the broader emerging market complex lower as investors rotated out of risk-sensitive assets and into the safety of the US dollar. A firmer dollar and cautious market sentiment weighed on the local unit, with the rand moving from its opening level of R16.1500/$ to an intraday high of R16.3425/$. Despite recovering from its weakest levels during the session, the currency was unable to sustain the improvement and ultimately settled weaker at R16.2600/$.

Looking ahead, the local economic calendar remains relatively light, leaving the rand vulnerable to offshore developments. Market focus shifts to key economic data releases from the US, Germany, the Eurozone, and China, which are expected to provide fresh insight into global growth trends and central bank expectations. As a result, the rand's trajectory is likely to be driven by these offshore data releases and the broader market reaction to them.


Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.2000/$ - R16.4000/$

14/09/2026

14 September 2026
International
After holding onto its previous gains and maintaining a positive trajectory during the early part of the session, the Dollar Index lost momentum later in the day on Friday. This followed the release of inflation data, which showed that prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while annual inflation increased to 3.4% in August, in line with market expectations. The data supported expectations that the Federal Reserve could consider raising interest rates at its upcoming meeting. After reaching an intraday high of 99.368, the Dollar Index reversed course and closed the session at 99.122.
The single currency came under pressure during Friday’s session, trading lower amid a firmer dollar environment. It closed the session at $1.1596 after reaching an intraday high of $1.1615. Unlike the euro, the pound showed resilience despite the stronger dollar and managed to pare some of its losses, outperforming the euro during the session. The pound found support from an upbeat GDP release, which showed growth of 0.4% month-on-month in July, higher than the previous reading. In addition, it received further support from manufacturing data, which showed a 0.9% month-on-month increase. As a result, the pound closed the session at $1.3535, having reached an intraday low of $1.3479.
The Chinese yuan started Friday’s session on a weaker footing but later reversed course, posting modest gains as the dollar surrendered some of its earlier advances. As a result, the yuan closed the session at 6.7060/$ against the dollar, after reaching an intraday low of 6.7146/$.
ZAR
The rand ended the week on a firmer footing, extending its gains as improved risk appetite supported emerging market currencies. The local unit opened at R16.1975/$ and initially came under pressure, touching an intraday high of R16.2299/$, before reversing course and rallying to an intraday low of R16.0925/$. Commodity prices remained broadly supportive, while the absence of material domestic negative catalysts allowed the currency to benefit from the broader risk-on environment. The rand ultimately closed stronger at R16.1350/$, comfortably in positive territory for the day.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar is relatively light both locally and internationally, leaving the rand susceptible to shifts in global market sentiment. As a result, price action is likely to be driven by geopolitical and macroeconomic headlines that could influence investor sentiment.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.1000/$ - R16.3000/$