Fin Select New Zealand

02/09/2026

02 September 2026
International
The dollar index edged higher on Tuesday as persisting geopolitical tensions in the middle east continued to drive oil prices higher and reinforce inflation concerns. The index opened at 99.421 and rose to a high of 99.714, recouping the previous session’s losses, despite mixed US manufacturing data. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.9 in August, from 53.2 in July. Conversely, the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, indicating a moderation in manufacturing growth while remaining in expansionary territory. The dollar ultimately ended the session at 99.701.
The euro ticked lower during yesterday's trading session, overshadowed by a recovering dollar. The euro opened at $1.1616 and slipped to a low of $1.1583 despite signs of recovery in Eurozone manufacturing. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.7 in August, from 51.9 in July, but slightly below the Reuters poll of 52.8. The euro closed at $1.1586.
The pound also weakened on Tuesday, pressured by a firmer dollar. The unit started at $1.3540 and touched a low of $1.3503 as UK gilt yields offered limited support. The pound managed to recover some of its losses before ending the session at $1.3515.
The offshore yuan weakened modestly yesterday as geopolitical tensions fueled safe haven demand. Encouraging Chinese manufacturing data offered the unit limited reprieve as China NBS Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.2 to 49.8. The yuan opened at 6.7178 and weakened to a high of 6.7250 before closing at 6.7222.

ZAR

The South African rand opened at R16.1121/$ on Tuesday before initially strengthening to an intraday low of R16.0610/$, but the move failed to hold as renewed dollar strength and a deterioration in global risk sentiment weighed on the local currency. The local unit subsequently reversed higher to close at R16.1606/$.
The local and global data calendars are relatively light, with focus on US ADP employment and factory orders. The rand is likely to take its cue from these releases, global risk sentiment, and geopolitical developments.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.05/$ - R16.25/$

01/09/2026

01 September 2026
International
The U.S. dollar struggled to build on Friday's momentum, starting the week on the back foot. The Dollar Index opened at 99.7040 as markets continued to digest last week's hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Although geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated after reports that the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire, the dollar failed to attract sustained safe-haven demand. The index slipped to an intraday low of 99.3900 before recovering some ground later in the session, supported by higher oil prices, to close at 99.4280.
Both the euro and the pound registered gains on Monday amid broad-based dollar weakness. The euro opened at $1.1580 and strengthened steadily in the session, reaching an intraday high of $1.1620 before closing at $1.1616.
The pound snapped its recent losing streak and posted modest gains against the dollar. The sterling opened at $1.3527 and climbed to an intraday high of $1.3565 before settling at $1.3548. Market participants will be watching the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Report Hearings later this week for further insight into the central bank's economic outlook and future policy direction.
The offshore yuan also benefited from a softer dollar yesterday. The unit opened at 6.7312 and reversed much of the previous session's losses, with the yuan finding support from broad-based dollar weakness. The yuan fell to an intraday low of 6.7172 before closing firmer at 6.7184.

ZAR

On Monday, the local unit opened at R16.1137/$, weakened to a high of R16.1949/$ before reversing course as the rand strengthened to an intraday low of R16.0883/$. The rand was supported by a stronger-than-expected trade surplus of R20.14 billion, beating the market forecast of R14.0 billion. Meanwhile, M3 money supply growth slowed to 8.57% from 9.31% previously, pointing to a moderation in monetary expansion. The rand ultimately closed stronger at R16.1363/$, reflecting a positive session despite the earlier pressure.
The domestic data docket will be relatively quiet, while global markets will focus on a range of key releases, most notably German retail sales and PMI figures from the United Kingdom, the eurozone, and the United States. The rand is expected to take its cue from these releases, together with broader global developments that could influence investor risk appetite.


Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.0000/$ - R16.2000/$

21/08/2026

the local unit surrendered its earlier gains to close weaker on the day. The rand opened at R16.0975/$ and closed at R16.1250/$.

Since it takes more rand to buy one US dollar at the close than at the open, the rand weakened during the trading session.
the rand "remains vulnerable to headline-driven volatility", indicating uncertainty rather than a sustained strengthening trend.
Earlier in the week, the rand received support from:

* Softer US Treasury yields
* Stronger gold prices
* South Africa's CPI data
* However, rising US Treasury yields later reduced that support.

What does this mean?

Short-term (today): Rand weakened slightly.
Near-term outlook: Neutral to slightly negative, with volatility expected.
Not a strong strengthening trend: The forecast does not indicate that the rand is on a sustained appreciation path.

For someone transferring money from South Africa to New Zealand or elsewhere, this forecast would not suggest waiting because of an expected strong rand rally. It suggests the rand remains sensitive to global news and could move in either direction depending on upcoming economic data and market sentiment.

20/08/2026

20 August 2026
International
The U.S. Dollar came under significant pressure during yesterday's session, with the currency weakening broadly as investors shifted their attention towards the upcoming release of the Fed meeting minutes for additional guidance and timing of any future policy adjustments by the central bank alongside a slight pullback in US Treasury yields.The dollar index kicked off the session at 99.6650, declined to a low of 98.7670 before ending the session bleeding at 98.8330

The single currency took advantage of a battered dollar and ticked higher on the day. The latest Eurozone inflation figures did little to push the currency further into positive territory, as they were broadly in line with expectations, offering little surprise to markets and having a limited impact on ECB rate expectations. On the macro front, headline inflation held steady at 2.9%, in line with expectations, while consumer prices increased by 0.2% MoM, reversing the 0.1% decline recorded previously. The euro opened the session at $1.1575, rallied to an intraday high of $1.1679, and closed comfortably in positive territory at $1.1677.

Coming hot off the back of the latest softer UK labour market data, inflation once again took center stage as fresh figures highlighted the persistence of price pressures within the UK economy. Headline CPI accelerated to 2.9% YoY, up from 2.6% previously and in line with market expectations. The reading marked the highest inflation print in four months, reinforcing concerns that inflationary pressures may prove stickier than anticipated despite signs of cooling in certain areas of the economy.
The inflation data shifted market focus back to the Bank of England's policy outlook, with investors increasingly questioning the pace and extent of future monetary policy easing. As a result, the pound found support against the US dollar. Pound Sterling opened at $1.3532, climbed to an intraday high of $1.3630, and ended the session firmly in positive territory at $1.3603

While Chinese macroeconomic data remained relatively sparse, the yuan stayed resilient throughout the session and managed to post gains against the US dollar. The offshore yuan opened at CNY6.7466/$ and strengthened steadily during the trading session, reaching an intraday low of CNY6.7269/$ before settling at CNY6.7312/$.

ZAR

The local unit snapped back into the green, ending the session on a stronger footing against the US dollar. The primary driver of the day's move was South Africa's July CPI print, which came in softer than expected at 4.3% versus market expectations of 4.5%. The rand also drew support from stronger gold prices during Thursday's trading session, with the precious metal's appreciation helping to underpin sentiment towards the commodity-linked currency. The Fed provided a second tailwind through the announcement of increased buyback operations, although rising long-dated developed market yields could yet prove to be a meaningful headwind for the rand. The rand opened the session at R16.2648/$ before diving to an intraday low of R16.0750/$ and ultimately closing at R16.0900/$.

On the data front, the local calendar remains relatively muted, while internationally the focus will be on UK Industrial Trends data. In the US, labour market data is due at 14:30, with natural gas inventory figures rounding off the day's releases. Friday begins with a flurry of European and UK economic data, including UK Retail Sales, French Business Climate and PMI figures, followed by German, Eurozone, UK, and US PMI releases. Finally, Eurozone Consumer Confidence data will round out the week's economic calendar ahead of the weekend.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.0000/$ - R16.2000/$

18/08/2026

18 August 2026
International
The Dollar Index started the week on the back foot as investors remained cautious ahead of further US economic data, yesterday the NY Fed Manufacturing Index surprised to the upside, rising to 20.6 from 15.6 and well above the 11.0 forecast. The NAHB Housing Market Index also marginally beat expectations, printing at 35 versus 34 previously and 33 expected. Despite the stronger data, the US dollar struggled to gain traction with the index opening at 99.660, briefly touching a session high of 99.668 before ending the day softer at 99.637

The single currency extended gains on Monday, underpinned by broad dollar softness. EUR/USD opened at $1.1562 and rallied to an intraday high of $1.1614 before trimming some gains into the close. The pair ultimately settled at $1.1579, ending the session firmer. Sterling tracked the broader dollar weakness as well and managed to maintain a strengthening bias throughout the session ahead of key UK CPI data. GBP/USD opened at $1.3523, climbed to an intraday high of $1.3571, and held onto most of its gains to close at $1.3543, ending the day on a stronger footing as markets positioned for the inflation release.

The offshore Yuan remained resilient and ended the session firmer despite a mixed set of Chinese economic data releases that highlighted ongoing challenges within the world's second-largest economy. July Retail Sales YoY slowed to 0.6%, down from the previous 1.0% reading and well below market expectations of 1.5%. Labour market data was also slightly weaker, with the Urban Unemployment Rate rising to 5.2% from 5.0%. Meanwhile, Urban Fixed Asset Investment contracted by -6.7%, compared to -5.7% previously and below market expectations of -6.0%. CNYUSD opened at CNY6.7429/$ and ended the session at CNY6.7419/$

ZAR

The South African rand lost ground against the US dollar during Monday's trading session as anxiety continued to build ahead of Wednesday's CPI release. The rand opened the session at R16.1951/$ and weakened to an intraday low of R16.2500/$ before recovering slightly to close the day at R16.2275/$.

Market participants will turn their attention to several key economic releases today. In the UK, labour market data, including the Claimant Count Change, ILO Unemployment Rate, and HMRC Payrolls figures, will provide insight into the health of the labour market and broader economic conditions. In the US, investors will closely monitor Housing Starts, Import Prices, and Industrial Production data for further clues on the strength of economic activity. The outcomes of these releases could influence expectations for future Federal Reserve policy and, in turn, drive movements across currency markets.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.1600/$ - R16.3900/$

17/08/2026

Fraud follows money, and it follows circumstances. South Africans moving funds across borders sit at the intersection of both, which is why this community is targeted so persistently.

At FinSelect we hear about these situations regularly, and the thing that stays with us is how rarely the victims were careless people.

Impersonation, intercepted emails, rates that look too good. The patterns behind cross-border fraud - and the habits that stop it.

17/08/2026

Somebody who has worked thirty years in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Australia or the United States and is now retiring to South Africa has one immediate, entirely practical question: how does my pension actually reach me.

At FinSelect we handle this regularly, and the reassuring part is that it is always solvable. The unhelpful part is that the right solution differs depending on your provider, and you cannot know which applies to you without asking specific questions.

Will your provider even pay to SA? What to check before you move, and why closing your foreign account can be a costly mistake.

17/08/2026

17/08/2026

17 August 2026
International
The Dollar Index ended Friday's session on a weaker footing, after struggling to establish a clear direction for most of the day as softer-than-expected US economic data weighed on sentiment. July Retail Sales contracted by -0.6%, significantly below both the previous reading of 0.2% and market expectations of 0.1%. Adding to the softer tone, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August declined to 51.0 from 55.2, falling short of the consensus forecast of 54.5. Despite the disappointing data releases, the haven managed to rally during the session and reached an intraday high of 99.936, however, the gains proved short-lived as investors reassessed the implications of the weaker economic indicators on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. The index ultimately surrendered its advances and closed lower on the day at 99.667

The euro enjoyed a constructive session on Friday, supported by a generally positive set of Eurozone economic releases that helped the single currency advance against the US dollar. The Eurozone’s Trade Balance improved to €1.8bn from -€5.0bn, while Q2 GDP held steady at 1.0% YoY. The euro opened trading at $1.1526, rallied to an intraday high of $1.1585, and ultimately settled at $1.1569, closing firmly in positive territory.

Pound Sterling also had a good run on Friday following weaker-than-expected US economic data releases. After opening the day at $1.3484, Sterling maintained a firm tone throughout the session, steadily advancing to an intraday high of $1.3561. The currency retained most of its gains into the close, ending the day at $1.3530 and comfortably in the green zone.

The offshore yuan posted marginal gains on Friday despite a mixed set of economic data releases from China, M2 growth slowed to 7.7% indicating a modest slowdown in liquidity growth across the economy while New Yuan Loans disappointed at -CNY340bn versus CNY1.61tn previously, underscoring continued weakness in credit demand and lending activity. Despite the softer lending data, the offshore yuan remained relatively stable. USDCNY opened the session at CNY6.7447/$, traded within a relatively narrow range, and ultimately closed marginally stronger at CNY6.7443/$.
ZAR

The ZAR surrendered some of its earlier gains against the greenback during Friday's trading session, as traders and market participants opted to lock in profits following a volatile week of trading. The rand opened the day at R16.1850/$ and strengthened to an intraday high of R16.1450/$ amid a relatively quiet data calendar. However, the currency retraced those gains later in the session and closed the week weaker at R16.2050/$.

Today's domestic economic calendar is relatively quiet. Internationally, market participants will be monitoring China's retail sales and urban unemployment figures, UK housing data, and a US Treasury bill auction later in the day. In the absence of significant local data releases, the rand is expected to take direction from these international developments, as well as ongoing geopolitical headlines and shifts in market risk sentiment.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R16.0500/$ - R16.2500/$

17/08/2026

If you've spent thirty years working in the UK, New Zealand, Australia or the US and you're retiring to South Africa, there's one practical question that comes up straight away: how does my pension actually reach me? Try to research it and you'll find surprisingly little.

There's plenty written about how pensions work in each country, and plenty about moving money out of South Africa - but almost nothing on the specific mechanics of a foreign pension paying someone who lives here.

Most arrive assuming their provider will simply pay into whatever account they nominate, then discover it's more complicated than that. At FinSelect we deal with this regularly, and the good news is it's always solvable. The catch is that the right solution depends on your provider - and you won't know which applies to you until you ask the right questions.

Will your provider even pay to SA? What to check before you move, and why closing your foreign account can be a costly mistake.