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24/10/2025

The US Dollar Index rose slightly on Thursday around 0.04% as further sanctions imposed by the US against two Russian oil companies sent the oil price up by 5%. With inflationary data delayed to Friday due to the government shutdown there was little to give guidance to the market outside of geopolitical risks, the index closed the day out at 98.936.

With the market eagerly awaiting the inflationary numbers out of the US the euro traded sideways and had very little drive it in either direction. The euro started the day at $1.1613 to close the day out at $1.1620.

After digesting the lower than expected inflationary numbers from Wednesday the pound continued to be on the back foot losing 0.21% to close $1.3330. Expectations are the BoE will have to pivot from their current stance of offering no interest rate cuts this year.
ZAR
The South African rand traded within a relatively tight range for most of Thursday’s session as market participants continued to digest the domestic inflation data released on Wednesday. The modest uptick in inflation has reinforced expectations that the South African Reserve Bank is likely to maintain its current policy stance and leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting in November. The rand opened the session at R17.4500/$, firmed to a best level of R17.2975/$, and closed the day trading at R17.3275/$. Market sentiment was underpinned by reports suggesting that South Africa may be nearing removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list — a development that could further support capital inflows and enhance investor confidence.

On the domestic front, the economic calendar is quiet with no major data releases scheduled for today. However, the international calendar is event-heavy and likely to dictate broader market direction. In the United States, focus will be on the release of CPI data, New Home Sales figures, and the Manufacturing and Services PMI. The Eurozone will publish the HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMI, alongside country-specific data from Germany and France, while the United Kingdom will release GfK Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales, and Manufacturing and Services PMI readings.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R17.28/$ - R17.45/$

22/10/2025

The US Dollar Index rose 0.35% Tuesday off the back of a hard selloff in the Gold Market which saw the precious metal lose over 5%. The profit taking in Gold signaled a rebalancing of safe-haven assets with the dollar being the major beneficiary. Opening the day at 98.614 the dollar index moved up to 98.979 before closing the day at 98.934.

With little data to give market direction the EUR got caught up in broader dollar strength and lost 0.36% closing at a level of $1.1598, this was the third day in a row where the euro was on the back foot.

Like the euro, the pound had little to negate the dollar strength in the market losing 0.28%. The pound opened the day at $1.3407 and was seen registering a high and low of $1.3420 and $1.3362 respectively before closing at $1.3373.

ZAR
The South African Rand opened for trading at R17.2200/$ and faced a stronger U.S. dollar for most of the trading session, weakening to its lowest level of the day at R17.4550/$ and closing the day trading at R17.3725/$. The local unit came under pressure as commodity prices retraced from the recent highs seen in the market. On the data front, the Leading Indicator was released at 115.5, improving from a revised prior reading of 113.60, as the market gears up for the anticipated CPI figures.

The local market will today see the release of CPI figures for September, which will be closely monitored for any implications on inflation trends and monetary policy outlook. In the United States, attention turns to the release of MBA Mortgage Applications. Data out of the Eurozone will include PPI figures from Ireland as well as the House Price Index from the Netherlands. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom will publish its CPI and Retail Price Index (RPI) figures for the month of September

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R17.20/$ - R17.55/$

21/10/2025

Mildly positive domestic developments allowed the kiwi to close the week near
its starting point, despite ongoing US-China trade tensions. The BusinessNZ PSI
survey indicated a slower contraction in the service sector compared to August,
while tourist arrivals in the same month rose significantly year-on-year,
approaching pre-Covid levels. Above all, credit card spending surged quite
noticeably in the third quarter, likely driven by the RBNZ recent easing, although
other leading indicators are still pointing to very weak growth.
This week, investors will analyse the meeting between Bessent and Chinese Vice
Premier He Lifeng, as well as third-quarter CPI inflation data, which was released
yesterday and came in at 3%. Despite this increase, the RBNZ expects subdued
domestic demand and rising unemployment to temper price growth in the near
term. As a result, markets anticipate further monetary easing at the November
meeting and potentially into next year.

20/10/2025

The US Dollar Index ended Friday up by 0.1% to end the day at 98.433, after an easing of trade tensions, when President Trump’s proposed 100% tariff towards China would likely be reduced when the leaders of the 2 most powerful economies meet in 2 weeks’ time. There was also support of further Federal Rate cuts to support the banking sector in the US with reports of strained regional banks being under pressure.

EURUSD experienced a slight decline of 0.3% Friday to close at $1.1653 against a broader US strength narrative. However, the survival of the French Prime Minister Lecornu against no confidence votes held on Friday in conjunction with core CPI data coming in slightly higher than expected at 2,4% - reinforced
expectations that the ECB may need to stay on the front foot with policy.

GBPUSD had no significant data released Friday and the market was driven by broader USD bullishness; the currency closed slightly down on the day by 0.07% to close at $1.3426.

ZAR
The Rand opened the final trading day of the week at R17.3551/$, coming under pressure as risk-off sentiment continued to dominate global markets. The Rand weakened to an intraday high of R17.5022/$, before recovering toward the close of the session, to end the week’s trading at R17.3835/$. The Rand remains highly sensitive to global developments, with ongoing trade tensions continuing to weigh on emerging market currencies. Attention this week will turn to the release of domestic inflation figures, which will be closely monitored by investors for potential implications on monetary policy.

The local economic calendar begins on a quiet note, with no key data releases scheduled today. In the United States, the continued government shutdown is limiting the publication of crucial economic data, adding to the broader sense of market uncertainty. The Eurozone calendar is similarly subdued, led by the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) figures in Germany. The United Kingdom also sees no major economic data scheduled for today, with only Nationwide House Prices on the cards.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R17.25/$ - R17.45/$

20/10/2025

NZD
Mildly positive domestic developments allowed the kiwi to close the week near its starting point, despite ongoing US-China trade tensions. The Business NZ PSI survey indicated a slower contraction in the service sector compared to August, while tourist arrivals in the same month rose significantly year-on-year, approaching pre-COVID levels. Above all, credit card spending surged quite noticeably in the third quarter, likely driven by the RBNZ's recent easing, although other leading indicators are still pointing to very weak growth.

This week, alongside the meeting between Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, focus will be on the third-quarter CPI inflation data, expected to rise to 3% from 2.7%. Despite this anticipated increase, the RBNZ expects subdued domestic demand and rising unemployment to temper price growth in the near term. As a result, markets anticipate further monetary easing at the November meeting and potentially into next year.

AUD
Fears over an escalation in the US-China trade war made for a difficult trading week for the antipodean currencies, both of which act as effective proxies for China. The Aussie dollar lost over 1% of its value last Monday after Trump warned of additional 100% tariffs, although a softening in White House rhetoric during the week at least arrested some of the downside. Market participants appear to be confident that recent bluster is exactly that, and merely a negotiating ploy rather than anything else. While we agree, lingering jitters could keep risk assets, including the Aussie dollar, on the back foot until next month’s talks.

The turn for the worse in last week’s September employment data added fuel to the sell-off. While the 15k net increase in jobs was largely in line with estimates, investors were caught wrong-footed by the jump in the unemployment rate, which rose to a near four-year high of 4.5% (from 4.3%). The November RBA meeting appears likely to be a close call, but markets now see another cut as more likely than not. Without question, the Q3 inflation data (29/10) will now be key

17/10/2025

The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, leaving investors with limited visibility on the near-term outlook. With traditional indicators on pause, market participants are closely monitoring comments from Federal Reserve officials for any guidance on future policy moves. On the trade front, sentiment improved slightly following news of a planned meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents. Secretary Bessent indicated that the current three-month trade truce could be extended, provided China steps back from proposed export controls on rare earth minerals, an encouraging sign for ongoing negotiations. In yesterday’s trading session, the dollar opened at 98.668 and briefly edged up to a high of 98.701. However, the move lacked conviction, and the greenback ultimately slipped to close at 98.336, reflecting continued uncertainty across markets

France’s government successfully weathered a no-confidence vote, after Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s decision to pause a key pension reform won over segments of the left-wing opposition. The move helped ease political tensions, at least for the short term. On the data front, CPI figures came in unchanged and broadly in line with market expectations, offering additional support to the currency. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar came under pressure, weighed down by improved risk sentiment and ongoing uncertainty linked to the U.S. government shutdown. A firmer tone across risk-linked assets helped lift broader market confidence, further dampening demand for Greenback. The euro opened at $1.1647, touched a high of $1.1694 during the session, and closed modestly stronger at $1.1687, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards risk.

UK GDP data met expectations, offering some relief to the Pound ahead of the government’s upcoming budget announcement on November 26. The economy expanded by 0.1% in August, recovering from a 0.1% contraction in July, with growth largely driven by a pickup in manufacturing activity. Like most currencies, the Pound took its cue from movements in the US, where lingering uncertainty around the government shutdown and ongoing trade tensions continues to keep investors on edge. The Pound opened at $1.3399, climbed to a session high of $1.3454, and closed slightly lower at $1.3430, underpinned by the in-line GDP print and a stable risk tone.


ZAR
The South African rand traded within a narrow range on Thursday, opening at R17.3400/$ and closing marginally firmer at R17.3450/$, supported by stronger gold and platinum prices as investors gravitated toward safe-haven assets amid persistent U.S.-China trade tensions and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The local economic calendar remains quiet today, while internationally, attention turns to the release of HICP data from the Eurozone. However, broader market uncertainty lingers due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed the publication of key economic indicators and raised concerns over its potential drag on economic growth. In the absence of meaningful domestic catalysts, the rand is likely to take direction from global data releases and any developments that may influence broader risk sentiment.


Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R17.25/$ - R17.50/$

13/10/2025

The U.S. dollar index remained in positive territory during Friday’s trade, initially firming at the open with a session high of 99.393. However, early strength faded as the day wore on, with the greenback paring gains to ultimately settle lower at 98.978 by the close. The intraday pullback reflected a shift in market sentiment as geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns reasserted themselves. Investor nerves were rattled by escalating trade tensions after President Trump issued a stark warning of a potential 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, effective November 1. This response comes on the heels of China’s newly announced export controls on rare earth elements and related technologies, a move widely seen as a strategic countermeasure in the ongoing tech and trade standoff. Meanwhile, the protracted U.S. government shutdown continued to cast a shadow over broader risk sentiment. With no clear resolution in sight, markets remain cautious, and dollar strength was ultimately tempered by concerns over domestic political gridlock and its potential drag on economic momentum.

The euro opened Friday’s session at $1.1563 and climbed steadily throughout the day, reaching an intraday high of $1.1630 before closing modestly higher at $1.1618. Despite a string of losses earlier in the week, the single currency found some footing heading into the weekend, supported by broad-based U.S. dollar softness. While political uncertainty in the Eurozone, particularly around the anticipated cabinet lineup set to be unveiled on Sunday, has kept sentiment somewhat cautious. Meanwhile, fresh data from Germany added to concerns about the eurozone’s economic outlook. German exports unexpectedly declined, while imports fell more sharply than anticipated. These developments came on the heels of steep drops in both industrial output and factory orders released earlier in the week. Markets appear to be pricing in the potential for near-term euro appreciation, especially if U.S. dollar pressure persists.

The British pound opened Friday's U.S. session at $1.3301, rose to a session high of $1.3370, and eventually closed at $1.3358. While the pound saw some intraday strength, it remained under pressure from a broadly firmer U.S. dollar and mounting uncertainty ahead of the UK’s upcoming fiscal announcement.
Market sentiment around sterling is cautious as investors brace for the UK’s Autumn budget on November 26, to be delivered by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. Expectations are building that the government may introduce tax increases in an effort to restore fiscal discipline and meet budgetary targets.


ZAR
The South African rand ended the week weaker at R17.5050/$, slipping from an open of R17.2050/$ on Friday, as heightened geopolitical tensions, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and global trade uncertainty drove risk-off sentiment. Despite a slightly softer U.S. dollar and limited economic data, the rand came under pressure, further weighed down by a pause in the recent commodity rally. Gold, a key South African export, recovered from early losses to post its eighth straight weekly gain, supported by expectations of further U.S. rate cuts. While this offered some support to the Rand alongside strength in other key metals like platinum and palladium, it was not enough to offset the broader market caution.

Today's economic calendar is quiet locally, but internationally we’re expecting trade balance data along with import and export prices from China. U.S. jobs data was scheduled for release, though it's unclear whether it will be published due to the ongoing government shutdown. The rand is likely to respond to these data points or any developments that impact overall risk sentiment.


Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R17.25/$ - R17.50/$

13/10/2025

NZD
The RBNZ surprised markets last week by slashing interest rates 50 bps. While a rate reduction was expected, market pricing suggested an even money chance of a jumbo cut. Policymakers justified their unanimous decision by citing the sharper-than-expected contraction in Q2 and restrained economic activity. Despite inflation approaching the upper bound of the RBNZ’s target (1-3%), the committee emphasized its concern over the downside risks that low domestic demand and unemployment pose to price growth.
The central bank also expressed openness to further ease its policy, with markets pricing in a consecutive rate cut in the November meeting. This week should be quieter in terms of data releases, so the kiwi will probably take its cue from the US-China trade developments.

AUD
Unsurprisingly, the Aussie dollar sank on Friday on the news that President Trump was said to be weighing a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese imports, and that he could cancel his planned meeting with President Xi. China is by far Australia’s largest trading partner, so the prospect of higher US tariffs on Asia’s largest economy is a clear downside risk. Whether Trump actually follows through with this threat is a completely different question, of course. History suggests that there’s a good chance that he won’t, so we wouldn’t be surprised to see a reversal in the AUD/USD pair next week should it become clear that his remarks are more bluster than substance.
Domestic macroeconomic data out of Australia last week was at a premium, and mostly second tier, for that matter. The focus this week will be on Tuesday’s RBA meeting minutes and Thursday’s jobs report for September. Another hold at the next RBA meeting in November is now more likely than not following the RBA’s hawkish hold in September, and we would probably need to see a rather sizable miss in the latter to bring one into view.

07/10/2025

International

The index managed to end its session in the green yesterday. Monday saw President Trump further reiterate claim that federal layoffs could ensue as the government shutdown lurches further. Key data releases have been missed and more still are expected to be delayed as a result of the shutdown. Markets are expected to closely monitor the Federal Reserve for any signals regarding potential rate cuts in October and December. The dollar opened at 97.957 before trading to a high of 98.499 and closing at 98.108

The euro gave way to a stronger dollar to end its session softer. Increased French political risk premia by way of the resignation of France’s primes minister as well potential rate cuts from the ECB will continue to weigh on the quote as the pair treads French eggshells. The shared currency opened at $1.1721 before trading to a low of $1.1653 and closing at $1.1713

The pound bucked the trend its European counterpart set by ending its session stronger against the dollar. BOE guidance that inflation could be sticky could buoy the quote despite a cooling labour market. The pound sterling opened at $1.3405 before trading to a high of $1.3489 and closing at $1.3486.

ZAR
The rand posted marginal gains on Monday, supported by surging gold prices and growing uncertainty around the duration of the U.S. government shutdown. The local unit opened at R17.2000/$ and weakened to an intrasession high of R17.3100/$, before reversing course to close firmer at R17.1800/$ as investors digested the potential economic drag from delayed U.S. data prints.
Today’s calendar sees local gold and forex reserves on deck, while the U.K. house price index will also be released this morning. However, with limited data out of the U.S., the rand is expected to continue taking cues from global headlines and Fed speak as markets seek clarity on the shutdown’s economic impact.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R17.1000/$ - R17.3000/$

06/10/2025

The kiwi ranked among the top performers in the G10 last week, buoyed by a
broadly weaker US dollar and apparent profit-taking on short positions against
AUD. Despite the economy’s fragile state, last week’s data releases provided
some mild, transient comfort. Business confidence in the current and future
state of the economy held up in September and, according to some metrics,
house prices rose for the first time in six months on a monthly basis. While it’s
premature to signal a recovery in New Zealand’s housing market, such a rebound
could underpin a much-needed pickup in consumer spending. We expect the RBNZ to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, aligning with its
revised Official Cash Rate projections from August, which forecast a 2.5% rate
by year-end. While markets are pricing in a one-in-three chance of a jumbo cut
due to a sharper-than-expected Q2 contraction, we believe the RBNZ will tread
cautiously into stimulatory territory, given its prevailing inflationary concerns.
We expect further easing in the November meeting, but remain hesitant to price
in further cuts beyond that, until we receive some Q3 data.

AUD was one of the top performers in the G10 last week, with the Aussie
currency rebounding back above the 0.66 handle versus the broadly weaker US
dollar. Last week’s RBA meeting delivered an expected pause, but the tone of the
bank’s remarks were noticeably less dovish than we had seen in the weeks
preceding the decision. Officials appear more concerned over an overshoot in
inflation, particularly after the latest CPI data suggests that we may already be
seeing an impact from previous policy easing. Governor Bullock didn’t rule out
another rate reduction last week, but she also said that the current 3.6% policy
rate was not “very restrictive”, which perhaps hints at a lack of appetite for cuts.
Another cut at the next RBA meeting in November now seems unlikely, in our
view. A lot will depend on whether the recent inflation spike proves temporary or
more entrenched, but we think that it will now probably take quite a lot to
encourage the bank to lower rates again next month. The prospect of a more
cautious RBA, and the possibility of a US-China trade deal in November, could
keep the Aussie currency well bid in the coming weeks.

06/10/2025

International
The index ended its session in the red. Uncertainty stemming from government shutdown continues to weigh on the index as its end continues to be mired in a stalemate. With a federal worker lay off in the offing and potential rate cuts - the outlook for the dollar seems bleak. The index opened at 97.853 before trading to a low of 97.600 and closing at 97.723.
The common unit pounced on a weaker dollar to end its session in the green. French politics continue to weigh on the shared currency. Roland Lescure was named finance minister amid policy tensions, nevertheless a weaker dollar paved the way for the euro to a stronger close as it opened at $1.1717 before trading to a high of $1.1761 and closing at $1.1744.
Not one to miss an opportunity, Pound Sterling edged into the green. A dollar story told as the policy divergence between BoE and Fed will likely give guidance to the quote as inflation outlook across the Atlantic between the Nato allies deviates from each other. The cable opened at $1.3439 before trading to a high $1.3488 and closing at $1.3470.
ZAR
The South African rand registered gains on Friday, ending the week in positive territory. The unit held steady during early trading but rallied to a low of R17.2025/$ boosted by a softer dollar and firmer gold prices, as markets awaited the local PMI data release. The Purchasing Managers’ Index printed at 50.2 in September, above the previous print of 50.1 in August, indicating a modest expansion in the manufacturing sector, and supporting the rands momentum on the day . The rand trimmed some of its intraday gains later in the session but still closed stronger at R17.2475/$.

On the international economic calendar, a series of data releases from the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom are scheduled for this morning, followed by U.S. data later today. In the absence of domestic data releases, the rand is expected to be guided by these international updates and broader economic news.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R17.15/$ - R17.35/$

03/10/2025

The dollar index reversed early losses on Thursday, climbing to 98.131 and breaking a four-day losing streak. This came as investors continued to anticipate further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. While the ongoing U.S. government shutdown added to broader concerns around policy uncertainty. The release of weekly Jobless Claims was delayed, and today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is also expected to be postponed, due to the deadlock in Congress. Nevertheless, markets appeared relatively unfazed for now, awaiting further developments and hoping for a swift resolution to the fiscal impasse. In labor data, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported a drop in job cuts for September, while the ADP private payrolls report showed a surprise loss of 32,000 jobs — the steepest decline since March 2023. Markets are now almost fully pricing in a 25 basis-point Fed rate cut this month, with an 80% likelihood of another reduction in December. The dollar index opened at 97.704, peaked at 98.131, and later settled at 97.846.
The euro opened Thursday’s session at $1.1728, holding steady near its previous close, but gradually gave up ground throughout the day. Despite ongoing support from a broadly weaker dollar, the single currency slipped as the greenback momentarily regained strength. Adding to the euro’s pressure, was a slight uptick in the Eurozone unemployment rate, which rose unexpectedly to 6.3% in August from a revised 6.2% in July — missing market expectations for a steady reading. While the change was modest, it hinted at softening labour market conditions, weighing on sentiment. With the U.S. government shutdown saga continuing to dominate broader market direction, the euro eventually drifted lower into the close, settling at $1.1718.
The British pound held steady on Thursday, pausing after a four-day winning streak, as the recent dollar sell-off lost momentum and markets turned their focus to domestic fiscal risks. Market began to weigh the potential economic impact of the upcoming UK budget in November, with Finance Minister Rachel Reeves expected to prioritize fiscal discipline — possibly through tax increases — in a move that could place further strain on an already fragile economy. Meanwhile, the Bank of England reaffirmed its outlook for UK inflation, forecasting a peak in CPI at 4.0% for September, before a gradual return to the 2% target over the medium term. Nonetheless, lingering inflationary pressures from food prices and regulated sectors like energy and housing continue to pose risks. Sterling opened the session at $1.3477, dipped to a low of $1.3401 as sentiment wavered, before recovering modestly to close at $1.3444.
ZAR
The rand kicked off Thursday’s trading session aggressively positive as early rand bulls across Asia and Africa continued to place greater bets on improved risk sentiment across the market, taking advantage of the muted economic data prints out of the United States, The rand opened the day at R17.2359/$ and quickly made its way to a low of R17.1717/$ - last seen in September 2024. Post the inclusion of market participants from the U.S, the local unit parted with earlier morning gains to a high of R17.3550/$ as the flight to quality and safe-haven assets indicated the weariness of investors to a government shutdown and the layoff of workers. The rand went to close the day at R17.2964/$ in the red against the greenback.

Today’s economic calendar is a muted one locally, with only Std Bank Whole Econ PMI on the cards, while internationally, we solely look forward to economic activity data out of Germany, the UK and the broader Eurozone. The rand is expected to continue to take directional cues from ever-developing economic and political headlines.

Expected ranges for the day:

• USDZAR: R17.20/$ - R17.40/$

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