19/05/2026
The AI boom is here, but the real beneficiaries may not be the group you think.
Over the past two years, AI has become one of the most dominant themes in global capital markets.
From NVIDIA to Microsoft, and countless AI startups, the market seems to be revolving around the “AI revolution.”
But for investors, the real question is not just:
Will AI continue to rise?
Rather:
Within this AI wave, which parts of the ecosystem are actually capturing the most value?
A common assumption is:
“Probably AI application/software companies.”
However, current market performance suggests another pattern worth noting:
The earliest and strongest revenue growth is often appearing in the upstream of the value chain — companies providing the underlying infrastructure.
For example:
🧠 AI chip design
🏭 Semiconductor manufacturing (foundries)
⚙️ Equipment manufacturers
☁️ Data centers and cloud services
TSMC and ASML raised their full-year revenue forecasts in April, reflecting continued strong AI-driven demand. Markets also estimate that major tech companies could collectively spend over $600 billion on data centers this year.
This may indicate that:
At this stage, AI-related gains are not evenly distributed across the industry.
From an analytical perspective, a simple framework can be useful:
A. Upstream: Computational power & Infrastructure (chips, cloud, data centers)
Focus on the foundational resources enabling AI development, where demand growth is currently most visible.
B. Midstream: Platforms & Tools (models, development tools, data)
Observe the evolving technologies that support AI development and deployment, where business models and competition are still developing.
C. Downstream: Applications & End-Use (software, industry solutions, devices)
Focus on how AI is being implemented across industries and the ability of companies to convert technology into real-world value.
D. Valuation & Risk Awareness
In a highly enthusiastic AI market, it is important to monitor valuations and potential bubble risks, and avoid relying on narrative alone while ignoring fundamentals.
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