28/05/2026
NZ economy focus
Welcome to the latest economic update from Gravity Credit Management. As we assess the New Zealand financial landscape in May 2026, we are observing a market transitioning under the weight of mounting cost pressures and shifting consumer sentiment.
Macro-Economic Headwinds & Consumer Sentiment
The New Zealand economy is experiencing softening momentum, with Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to +0.2%. While the CPI held steady at +3.1% in the year to March 2026, annual inflation is on course to surpass 4% by mid-year, heavily driven by surging fuel costs (petrol up 13%, diesel up 37%).
This environment has severely impacted public outlook. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index plunged to 80.3 in April, its lowest reading in roughly three years. Concurrently, the labour market is softening, with the unemployment rate climbing to 5.3%. This tightening has directly hit retail, with electronic card spending dropping 1.3% in April.
Credit Hardship & Arrears Trends
Rising financial strain is highly visible in unsecured lending. Credit card hardship volumes surged 13.8% month-on-month in March, while personal loan hardship volumes sit at a significant 30.7% increase year-on-year.
Despite these acute pressure points, short-term consumer arrears (30 days past due, or 30DPD+) present a more nuanced picture:
Home Loans: 30DPD+ arrears fell slightly to 0.59%, showing resilience.
Auto Loans: Arrears improved notably, dropping to 3.13%.
Credit Cards: Remained flat and well-contained at 1.04%.
Personal Loans: Arrears rose to 4.50%, driven heavily by non-bank lenders (5.91%) compared to major banks (2.48%).
Utilities: Monthly arrears dipped to 1.96%, but remain 21 basis points higher than last year.
Property & Commercial Demand
The national property market has effectively stalled, with the Valocity Value Index creeping up a fractional 0.2% to an average value of $1.098 million. A stark regional divide has emerged: provincial areas like Southland (+4.8%) and the West Coast (+4.3%) are growing, while heavily leveraged major metros are contracting, led by Auckland (-3.0%) and Wellington (-1.8%).
In the commercial sector, credit demand remains marginally ahead of last year (+0.6% YTD). Growth is highly uneven, supported strongly by retail trade (+8.3%) and business loans (+5.3%), while transport and logistics credit demand has contracted by 4.7%.
As these economic crosscurrents develop, Gravity Credit Management remains focused on leveraging these insights to drive proactive, ethical, and commercially effective debt recovery solutions for our partners.
Data Source: NZ_Market_Pulse_May_2026.txt (Equifax New Zealand, with property insights powered by Valocity Limited)