07/04/2022
The chart below from Strategas makes for bad reading if you are an index (or growth) investor. In the chart they break down historical price earnings ratios by inflation levels. The index is currently stuck in the old dreamland of 0-2% inflation. The price to earnings of the S&P 500 is currently well above 18.1x namely 21x!
‘We are here’. Currently the real inflation number is 6-8%. A price earnings ratio of 12.1 times (12.1x) reflects the more realistic multiple that investors will be willing to pay should inflation remain at these high levels. Whilst not many people (including ourselves) believe that inflation will remain quite so high, it is nonetheless comforting to know that even under such extreme conditions our value portfolio is still relatively cheap (currently around 10 times earnings (10 x).