27/11/2013
Cash-in, cash-out
November 27, 2013 | Filed under: Columnists | Author: Tayo Fagbule
Nigeria’s mobile financial services landscape is growing, thanks to the high pe*******on of mobile phones. Of Nigeria’s 87.9 million adult population 64.1 percent have a mobile phone.
Though Nigeria is ready for mobile money, the scene is like a jam-packed and scrappy party. Over 20 licensees are eyeing a market that could match the success of M-Pesa in Kenya where 9 million customers transfer an average of $320 million a month.
Mobile money in sub-Saharan Africa has a potential of 134 million customers. Of the 20 countries that use mobile money in the world 15 are in Africa. In Nigeria, the Kenyan model, considered the most developed, has proved difficult to replicate.
Perhaps it’s regulatory ambiguity. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is not keen on a banking and payment space dominated by mobile network operators. It wants to monitor cash in circulation to ensure price and economic stability.
Could it be habit that has delayed viral adoption of mobile banking? Cash is still the preferred method for transacting, especially among affluent people living in the cities. Many Nigerians still use informal cash payment options.
As with most things Nigerian, mass market, economies of scale, network effect, critical mass etc are the linchpin. Intrepid investors will say it is demographics dummkopf: there are few countries in the world with our market size and growth potential.
Beyond regulatory apprehension and ingrained habits, it’s possible that the problem of mobile banking is infrastructure. Experts reckon that the scalability and sustainability of mobile banking requires at least 10 times the number of cash-in/out outlets i.e. bank branches in the country. Physical proximity to a transactional outlet, a mobile money agent, is a compelling value proposition.
A 2012 survey by Enhancing Financial Inclusion & Access (EFInA) identified that safety, ease of use and proximity of agents are major factors that will encourage adults to adopt mobile money; the nearer the agent, the better. Mobile Money Operators interviewed by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) reckon Nigeria will require 50,000 to 150,000 cash-in/out agents. Given the country’s large market size, the figure isn’t incomprehensible.
However, the total number of available financial access points, whether bank branches, offsite ATMs, microfinance institutes, microfinance banks, savings and credit co-operations, motor parks, mobile money operators and post offices, is perplexingly insufficient.
A recent, though preliminary, study has mapped the financial access points in Nigeria. The study, sponsored by The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, puts the total number of access points at 16,538.
Of these, banks, MMOs and motor parks make up 76 percent. Motor parks are an informal means of sending remittances domestically, most often through the drivers of transport companies that ply interstate routes.
To drive mobile money in Nigeria, the central bank has focused on a bank-led strategy. This is understandable. Bank branches and their offsite ATMs account for 40 percent of all access points. In urban areas, the relative percentage of people within 5, 10 and 15km of bank branches is 92.2, 97.2 and 98.2 percent, respectively.UBA, Access Bank, First Bank, and Ecobank have the largest number of branches and each have a mobile money operating license.
Lagos State, with a 1,519 bank branches, also has the highest percentage of adults with bank accounts. Though Abuja has the second highest number of bank branches (358), the percentage of adults with bank accounts is less than that of Imo and Edo States – there are 190 and 195 bank branches in Imo and Edo respectively.
Proximity to a bank is a major concern in rural areas. Transport costs to and from the closest bank in rural areas varies between N50 to N300, more than a SMS text.
Industry experts reckon customers will adopt financial services, if an outlet to cash their money is within 5km – at the moment the total population within 5km of all access points is 47 percent (71m). Based on this yardstick it’s still a long way to reducing financial exclusion from 38.7 percent in 2012 to 20 percent by 2020 (CBN’s target).
Of course, mobile banking isn’t the only route to financial inclusion. There are many ways to make banking a mass-market product. From February 2014, banks are expected to use biometric data to register their customers. Still, will customers travel 10km and beyond to operate a bank account because the paperwork has been reduced to just thumbprints and a picture?
Some think the CBN will change tack. Nigeria banks can huff and puff about a bank-led strategy to mobile banking; their onerous overheads is an impediment to ubiquity. And there are few incentives to roll-out new branches across the country, especially into rural areas. According to Financial Derivatives, a research company, in 2012 Lagos accounted for 73.4 and 74.8 percent of the value and volume of cheques cleared in Nigeria. In its monthly breakfast session at the Lagos Business School, Bismarck Rewane, the CEO, said the value of cheques cleared in Lagos increased to N2.29trn in October from N2.13trn in September.
Soon, banks’ will have to admit that distribution is the problem of mobile money in Nigeria. Banks’ will have to admit that mobile money turns their revenue model of account size and creditworthiness on its head. That mobile money rides on a network of base stations widely deployed by telecoms. That it converts cash into electronic money and transfers via mobile phones. In other words, mobile phones serve as bank cards and point of sale terminal (PoS).
Instead of interest payments, revenue is based on usage. Customer profitability depends on frequency of e-float transactions i.e. total amount stored in e-money accounts and deposited in bank accounts.
Mobile phones are ubiquitous. Coupled with a network of agents, managed by agent network managers, and in partnership with banks, microfinance banks and post offices the adoption of mobile money can be scaled. Scaling mobile money requires an ecosystem of agents, end-users, agents (shop owners, supermarkets or sellers of airtime) and bulk users. Scaling mobile banking also requires investing in the three Ms: marketing, merchant commissions, merchant training.