05/10/2026
On 23 September, foot-and-mouth disease was confirmed on a farm in the Karasburg district, the first case south of the Veterinary Cordon Fence in 60 years. Namibia's best-paying beef markets, in Europe, the United Kingdom and Norway, buy only from that zone.
Within days Meatco had suspended slaughter and exports, the UK had closed its market to Namibian fresh meat, and livestock auctions across the country were called off, among them a sale of about 1,100 cattle in Otjiwarongo.
On our estimate, every month the export markets remain closed puts close to N$300 million of meat exports at risk. A three-month closure would put N$0.9 billion at risk, and a full year about N$3.4 billion. Those figures count only the meat that would have left the country, not the auctions, the live animal trade or the jobs that depend on them.
The closure need not last a year. Botswana zoned its 2022 outbreak quickly and had the EU market back within about eight weeks, and European food safety officials have already commended Namibia's response. The decisions taken in the coming weeks will largely determine how long our markets stay shut.
This edition of The Monasa Monitor sets it out in nine slides:
→ How the outbreak unfolded, day by day
→ What is at stake for the beef trade
→ The cost of a long closure
→ The view from north of the Red Line, where about 7% of cattle are sold each year, against 25% in the south
→ How other countries recovered, and how quickly
→ Five steps to take now
→ Why the lasting answer cannot rest on a single fence
Swipe through the document below, where every figure is sourced, or download it for your next discussion of the outbreak, whether in a boardroom, at an auction or in a ministry.
Of the five steps we propose, which do you think should come first? We welcome your views in the comments.
The Monitor publishes every second Monday, so follow Monasa Advisory & Associates to receive the next edition.
Research: Jason Kasuto and Tio Nakasole.
Nakasole # JasonKasuto # Meatco Meatco
