17/10/2026
YOUR RETIREMENT PLAN MAY BE FACING TWO PROBLEMS AT ONCE.
RM3 million sounds like a comfortable retirement fund. Until your expenses keep rising while your investments occasionally fall 15% or 20%. The tough question is whether your money can withstand both happening together.
You’ve spent 30 years building your retirement savings, believing fixed deposits, bonds and investment funds would provide financial security. Then inflation starts climbing again, interest rates threaten to rise, and investments you considered reasonably safe begin behaving differently.
Bank Negara Malaysia has indicated room to raise interest rates if inflation intensifies. Bloomberg reportedly puts the probability of an increase within six months at 76%.
Technology shares meanwhile have fallen sharply across Asia, with South Korea’s Kospi dropping almost 8% and Japan’s Nikkei losing 5% on Thursday.
These developments aren't entirely unrelated. Here's why.
Persistent inflation can keep interest rates higher, increasing financing costs and pressuring equity valuations. Rising yields can also reduce the market value of existing fixed-rate bonds.
For someone still earning a salary, falling markets may present buying opportunities. But if you're 60, retired and withdrawing RM15,000 monthly, the arithmetic becomes less forgiving.
You may be forced to sell investments precisely when their prices have fallen.
Consider a Malaysian couple retiring with RM3 million and spending RM12,000 monthly.
At 3% inflation, their annual expenses rise from RM144,000 to approximately RM194,000 after ten years. Their investments must support that higher spending regardless of market conditions.
And that's assuming their personal inflation is only 3%. That's optimistic. You know there's shadow inflation.
Medical insurance, healthcare, home maintenance and supporting elderly parents can increase much faster than the official inflation index. That's your shadow inflation.
Now imagine your portfolio falling 15% during the first few years of retirement while withdrawals continue.
The problem isn't necessarily poor investments.
It's a retirement plan built around average returns rather than the actual sequence in which those returns arrive - this is key.
This is why I spend more time examining how a client's wealth will fund retirement than predicting which investment fund might perform best next year.
A RM3 million portfolio tells me how much money you have. It doesn't tell me whether that money can sustain your lifestyle through inflation, market declines and another 25 years of retirement.
Before your final payslip arrives, I would rather examine what happens to your retirement income when markets fall than discover the answer afterwards.
If you're approaching retirement with RM2 million or more in investments, I can help assess whether your portfolio is structured to support withdrawals through difficult market conditions.