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05/10/2022

October 5th 2022

Traders are betting it will take a bigger UK government policy U-turn to restore credibility with markets.

Wagers against the pound over the next year have climbed to a record high in the options market, even after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng said he will scrap a proposed tax cut for the country’s highest earners. That only removes £2 billion ($2.3 billion) from a tax-cut package costing £45 billion.

Sentiment in the bond market also remains jittery, with longer-dated maturities sliding after the Bank of England only bought a limited amount of debt in daily operations. It started intervening last week to stem a selloff on the back of the initial announcement for tax cuts.

Options traders bet sterling will face strong selling pressure in the year ahead

The problem for investors is that the rest of the recent mini-budget, including borrowing billions to fund energy price caps and other tax cuts, is still going ahead, hurting the country’s debt sustainability. While the policy reversal may slightly improve that outlook, it also damages the credibility of a government facing a revolt in its own party and a collapse in support in voter polls.

“The U-turn represents a concerted effort to soften the narrative regarding the government’s economic agenda but little to change the direction,” said Neil Mehta, a portfolio manager at BlueBay Asset Management. “This dynamic should support the pound in the short-term, but we think this will be short-lived, as confidence in the government is shot and policies come home to roost over a difficult winter for the UK economy.”

The Nightmare Numbers Behind Britain’s Week of Market Panic

The late September fiscal package sent the pound to a record low a week ago and led to the biggest-ever selloff in long maturity bonds, forcing the BOE to step in to stop forced selling by pension funds covering margin calls. There’s still uncertainty over what will happen when the BOE halts its bond buying on Oct. 14.

Wall Street banks have already predicted the pound will hit parity with the dollar this year. In the options market, traders are the most negative on the currency against the greenback over the next three months since the 2016 Brexit vote, while one-year sentiment is worse.

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng dropped a plan to cut taxes for the highest earners just 10 days after announcing it.
Here are some other views on UK markets and the tax U-turn:

Vanguard
“Market reaction to the UK’s U-turn on tax was muted because it’s a small part of the overall package,” Shaan Raithatha, senior European economist at Vanguard, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

There’s a bleak economic outlook as the “fiscal package is probably going to be positive in the short term but neutral or negative in the longer term as benefits of tax cuts will be offset by higher mortgage payments and higher business costs.”

Liberum Capital
“Until the market sees a clear strategy to fund the energy cap freeze and other measures, we do not expect the pressure on UK gilts and sterling to ease, nor the pressure on equities, which is coming from persistent recession fears,” said Susana Cruz, a strategist at Liberum Capital.

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“The Chancellor is yet to reveal a clear strategy to finance its growth package (or planned expense cuts) so for now, his intent to reduce debt as a percentage of GDP does not seem plausible.”

UBS Global Wealth Management
“The UK remains a source of market volatility,” said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The Prime Minister has suggested the more controversial policies were the Chancellor’s idea. So far, free markets have given a negative verdict whenever the Prime Minister or Chancellor has spoken.”

“The UK situation raises two investor considerations. Will the policy proposals actually pass Parliament? Normally a finance bill is considered a vote of confidence, but specific parts of the policy proposals are widely and strongly opposed. If the policies do pass Parliament, how long will they last? An election is due in 2024; if markets price a change of government (and policy), that may put a floor under asset prices.”

Nomura Holdings
“The top rate of tax U-turn is only a symbolic gesture as it’s roughly just £2 billion,” said Jordan Rochester, a currency strategist at Nomura Holdings. “It’s a sign that they will listen to markets and politics perhaps but it doesn’t reverse the big pledges.”

Mizuho Bank
“In terms of the amount of money, it’s still fairly small and won’t change the Office for Budget Responsbility’s assessment, which I am fairly sure will be damning,” said Colin Asher, senior economist at Mizuho in London. “What changes most is the optics of it -- supporting bankers over nurses especially after Covid is a bad look and enough of (Kwarteng’s) Tory colleagues will have been prepared to vote against it.”

“Remember the BOE is still supporting the gilt market so yields won’t be reflecting the full consequences of recent events, including the retention of the 45% tax band. There is still nervousness over what happens in two weeks time when we revert to the status quo. Today’s move on tax rates doesn’t change a huge amount and in short term bias remains for weaker sterling.”

Hargreaves Lansdown
“The Prime Minister was hoping to carve out a reputation as the new Iron Lady, instead she will be seen as highly malleable,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “She has been manipulated into this U-turn after senior Conservatives yesterday were coming out in open revolt at the Treasury’s decision to scrap the 45p tax band for the wealthy while refusing to rule out cuts to welfare for the poorest.”

“Admitting to a communication mistake rather than a serious policy mishap didn’t cut it. Now this embarrassing climb down, taking unfunded tax cuts off the table, which Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has called a distraction, will help reassure the markets a little that the more reckless nature of this new administration can be reined in by the Conservative party.”

MFS Investment Management
“The policy reversal clearly indicates there is some scope for shifts in the details but the overall fiscal approach seemingly remains in place,” said Peter Goves, fixed income research analyst at MFS Investment Management. “The market may infer that the package might not be as rigid as first thought but equally it also highlights that support for the measures wasn’t convincingly broad enough for it to be voted through Parliament.”

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McKinsey & Company
“The key point is the unfunded nature of the fiscal impulse. This is what concerns the market because it impacts sovereign debt metrics, has implications for inflation and monetary policy amid a growth slow down. The BOE’s return has brought some welcome market stability but gilt yields remain relatively high and are still searching for further clarity on the details of the package.”

ING Groep
“Cable has today returned to levels seen just before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng delivered the infamous ‘fiscal event’ and it would now be hard to argue that cable should be trading much higher than that,” said Chris Turner, a foreign-exchange strategist at ING. “But this does alleviate the risk of cable trading to parity in that it shows Downing Street will show greater respect to financial markets when considering policy options.”

Rabobank
“I don’t think that a U-turn on the 45% tax plan saves the government from an ongoing high level of criticism,” said Jane Foley, head of currency strategy at Rabobank, adding the pound is on “borrowed time” and a decline to dollar parity can’t be ruled out. “Market trust is gone.”

“The current government, and Truss and her chancellor are viewed as being naive at best in terms of reading markets, and it’s going to very difficult if not potentially impossible to win back that credibility,” she said. “There are potential signs that her tenure as party leader could be extremely short because it’s almost a no-win situation for her.”

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
“The market continues to view the government having something of a fiscal credibility deficit, hence we would expect the squeeze to run out of momentum ahead of strong resistance around $1.1350,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of Group-of-10 foreign-exchange strategy at CIBC, on the pound’s rally.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group
The pound’s volatility “serves as a salutary reminder of the need to deliver credible policy, particularly in the current climate of high inflation and asset price weakness,” Australia & New Zealand Banking Group strategists Brian Martin and Mahjabeen Zaman wrote in a note. “UK policy setters need to get ahead of market anxiety.”

With assistance by Joe Easton, Ruth Carson, Greg Ritchie, Sujata Rao-Coverley, Mumbi Gitau, Sagarika Jaisinghani, and Tania Chen

02/08/2022

Yen Heads for Longest Rally in Six Months on Growth Fears Pivot
Leveraged fund net short positions sink to lowest since 2021
Reduced expectations for Fed rate hikes boosting yen

The yen’s summer revival entered a fourth day, putting it on track for the longest rally since February, as one of the biggest macro trades of the year continues to unwind.

The Japanese currency climbed as much as 1% to just below 132 per dollar. Hedge funds are selling down dollar positions and increasingly buying the yen as a haven play, according to Asia-based currency traders who asked not to be named as they’re not authorized to discuss client activity publicly.

Yen climbs in longest winning streak since February

Lowered expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes -- as recession fears grow -- have led to a rally in Treasuries, narrowing the yield gap that had opened up between the US and Japan that helped drive the yen to a 24-year low. That has weakened the argument behind one of the most prominent trades of the year, short the Japanese currency, and resulted in a more than 5% rebound from the yen’s mid-July low.

“We believe a cyclical peak in dollar-yen and yield differentials may be already in place,” according to Mayank Mishra, a global currency and macro strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore. “Even if persistent inflation keeps the Fed hawkish for longer, rising growth concerns would keep long-end Treasury yields under pressure.”

A narrowing inflation-adjusted yield differential between the US and Japan is driving the move, with positioning playing a role as well, he added. The spread between 10-year real Treasury yields and their Japanese equivalents has shrunk to 0.80% from over 1.5% in mid June.

Mishra has been short the dollar-yen since it hit the 138.80 level and sees it heading toward 130, he said.

Leveraged funds cut bearish yen bets to lowest since March 2021

Leveraged funds have slashed net-short futures and options positions on the Japanese currency to the lowest since March 2021, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Net bearish bets of around 23,000 contracts are now less than a third of their April peak.

“Clients have been heavy buyers of yen of late and continue to hold a positive yen stance,” wrote Pepperstone Group head of research Chris Weston in a note Monday.

U.S.-Japan real yield gap narrowing should help rein in dollar-yen

Still, the currency remains the worst among Group-of-10 peers, down around 13% this year as the Bank of Japan keeps interest rates pinned to the floor even as the Fed hikes aggressively. Higher oil prices in energy-import heavy Japan and a blowout in the country’s trade deficit continue to weigh.

While the yen’s decline may be nearing its end, until markets get clarity on the view of the Fed, “there will be some turbulence,” said Maki Ogawa, head of financial market research at Sony Financial Group. “It’s still too early to say that the 140 yen exchange rate will no longer happen.”

By Matthew Burgess and Hiroko Komiya

22/07/2022

Goldman Sachs Doubts Intervention on Euro, But Action on Yen Possible

Two currencies have slid at least 10% versus dollar this year
ECB has a host of more pressing challenges, Goldman says

The European Central Bank is unlikely to step directly into foreign-exchange markets even in the face of a more than 10% slump in the euro this year, although there’s potential for Japan to engage in that kind of intervention if the yen keeps sliding, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The US dollar, fueled by a combination of aggressive Federal Reserve monetary policy and haven buying, is trading near its strongest level in decades, steamrolling currencies from Hungary to New Zealand. The euro and yen -- the greenback’s most widely traded peers -- have struggled to hold their ground, while some countries such as Chile and India have already taken direct action in support of their currencies.

The euro and yen have both weakened to multi-decade lows versus the dollar

Yet the odds such a move by the ECB in the near-term are low, according to Goldman foreign-exchange strategist Karen Reichgott Fishman, who says President Christine Lagarde and her colleagues have more pressing issues to tackle before shifting their attention toward supporting Europe’s common currency. High on that list are the surge in inflation, risks to energy supplies and the deterioration of so-called peripheral bond markets, such as Italy’s, whose issues are being exacerbated by political turmoil.

These problems underpinned the central bank’s decision Thursday to raise its benchmark rate by half a percentage point -- its first increase in a decade -- and provide further details about its newest bond-market instrument, which is aimed at preventing a splintering of the euro area.

‘Fragmentation Risks’
“Concerns of fragmentation risks and elevated political uncertainty in Italy ultimately outweighed the initial upward pressure on the euro -- highlighting the complicated set of challenges the single currency is facing at the moment,” the Goldman strategist wrote in a note. While FX intervention is certainly “in the toolkit,” the likelihood of the ECB deploying it is “low,” she said.

The euro dropped 0.3% Friday to $1.0194, extending this year’s decline to 10.3%.

Meanwhile, the yen has dropped more than 16% against the greenback this year and earlier this month touched the weakest level since 1998. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda emphasized Thursday his determination to stick with rock-bottom interest rates even if it means a weaker currency.

How long the BOJ can stand pat as the yen slides is an open question. Reichgott Fishman said while interventions by the world’s largest central banks have been rare in recent decades -- and when they do occur they’re typically co-ordinated -- the odds Japan will do something will increase if the dollar-yen rate keeps pushing higher.

By Mary Biekert

08/07/2022

Speculators Back Away From Yen Shorts as Eco Risks Boost Havens
Traders cut bearish yen bets for seven consecutive weeks

Citi recommends a bullish yen trade via the options market

Signs are beginning to appear that the worst of the yen’s rout may be over it amid concerns about a global recession and lingering speculation over a Bank of Japan policy shift.

Speculators have cut their bearish bets on the Japanese currency for seven straight weeks with net-short non-commercial positions falling to the lowest this year, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. And a retreat in Treasury yields -- whose rise had weighed heavily on the yen -- has yet to fully feed through to the currency market, according to Citigroup Inc.

Yen hedging costs march higher even as short interest wanes

“We see reasons to assume the rally in US Treasuries can prove sticky,” Citi strategists Michael Chang and Jabaz Mathai wrote in a note Friday. If this is the case, “there would be significant downside to dollar-yen.”

The pair recommended investors use the option market to bet on such a decline via a so-called put spread -- a strategy which pays out if dollar-yen falls.

Betting against the yen has been one of the year’s hottest macro trades with the currency caught between a BOJ keeping rates pinned to the floor to boost Japan’s economy and a Federal Reserve hiking aggressively to rein in inflation. It is the worst performer in the Group-of-10, down some 15% against the dollar.

But growing evidence of a slowdown in manufacturing from the US to Asia has added to fears of a global recession, bolstering the case for traditional havens like the yen and Treasuries. And speculation still hasn’t gone away of a hawkish shift from the BOJ, something which could cause a sharp rally in the yen.

Treasury yield drop could help lead to a stronger yen

Benchmark Treasury yields tumbled below 2.80% on Friday, down from a mid-June high of 3.5%. Dollar-yen traded around the 135 level in Tokyo trading Monday versus last month’s peak of 137.

By Matthew Burgess

24/05/2022

The pound tumbled and investors rushed to the safety of government bonds after an index of UK private sector growth unexpectedly slid in May to reawaken fears of a recession.

That led traders to rein in bets on further interest-rate hikes from the Bank of England, given the risk that higher borrowing costs will halt growth. The pound fell nearly 1% against the dollar, reversing Monday’s gains and making it the most volatile Group-of-10 currency this week.

Traders piled into short-dated government debt, driving down the two-year gilt yield by as much as 14 basis points to 1.44%, its biggest drop in two weeks. Bonds are benefiting as money markets expect about 15 basis points fewer rate increases this year, a day after BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said a cost-of-living crisis will be factored into policy decisions.

“After Governor Bailey’s not-so-hawkish comments yesterday, today’s PMI figures underscore the real income shock on the UK economy,” said Geoffrey Yu, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of New York Mellon. “If we had to pick one G-10 central bank most likely to pause soon, it would likely be the BOE.”

S&P Global’s index of private sector growth unexpectedly slumped in May to levels last seen in February 2021, when coronavirus lockdowns were still in place, the firm said Tuesday. The speed of the slowdown was the fourth-largest on record and worse than anything seen before the pandemic hit.

“These are stunning decreases over such a short period of time,” said Christopher Dembik, head of macro analysis at Saxo Bank, adding that inflation is still “out of control” and a technical recession is likely in the UK this year.

The data give policy makers bandwidth for just one more 25 basis-point hike at June’s meeting at a maximum, according to Simon Harvey, head of currency analysis at Monex Europe. The BOE has already implemented four back-to-back increases to deal with surging inflation.

The pound is also falling against the euro, which is getting a boost on Tuesday after the European Central Bank’s president made it clear that she sees the end of negative monetary policy. The single currency is up about 1% at 85.76 pence.

“As the market reacts to Christine Lagarde’s ECB Policy roadmap, it’s much easier to see sterling as the weakest currency in Europe,” Kit Juckes, chief currency strategist at Societe Generale, wrote in a note.

By Alice Gledhill

14/05/2022

A series of gradual interest-rate hikes by the European Central Bank to as high as 2% would help restore normalcy in the currency club’s financial industry after years of ultra-accommodative policy, according to Slovenia’s biggest lender.

ECB policy makers are increasingly embracing a scenario of taking rates above zero before the end of the year. With inflation rising, President Christine Lagarde has said that “normalization” will be gradual once the first hike takes place, perhaps as soon as July.

“There are signals that there would be up to seven hikes, in the range of 25 basis points,” which “would be exactly something that we believe is reasonable,” Blaz Brodnjak, the chief executive officer of Nova Ljubljanska banka d.d., said in an interview. Tightening that would bring the key rate even as high as 2% “would simply bring the banking business back to normal.”

By slowly lifting rates above zero, “the cost of financing would finally be meaningful and properly factored in” by business models, Brodnjak said in Belgrade. NLB became euro-member Slovenia’s biggest lender by assets this year after its emergency takeover of the local unit of Russia’s sanctioned Sberbank PJSC.

“Moderate hikes would be good, I think hygienic, not only for banks but also for clients,” he said. “Banks don’t feel well in the environment of negative rates.”

By Misha Savic

Selamat Hari Raya
02/05/2022

Selamat Hari Raya

BOJ Expected to Hold Firm Even as Economists Flag 130 Yen Level.The Bank of Japan is widely expected to stand pat next w...
21/04/2022

BOJ Expected to Hold Firm Even as Economists Flag 130 Yen Level.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to stand pat next week even as speculation grows that it might adjust policy before the end of the year to account for the weakening yen, with economists flagging the 130 mark against the dollar as a key level.

Some 89% of 45 analysts forecast no change in the central bank’s settings for interest rates and asset purchases at the end of a two-day meeting next Thursday, according to the poll. For the first time in a while, some 11% predict a shift in forward guidance in the direction of tightening policy.

Reflecting the impact of recent sharp yen movements and soaring energy prices, some 45% said it’s likely or very likely that the central bank will take some kind of action this year to address a weak yen or inflation, more than double the 19% in the previous poll in March.

The yen needs to reach 130 against the dollar to prompt the BOJ to consider adjusting its policy or communications, according to the median estimate in the poll. The yen was still close to the 125 mark when the survey started on Thursday, but briefly reached a fresh 20-year low of 129.40 Wednesday morning in Tokyo after the poll closed.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has repeatedly talked of the need to maintain stimulus to support the economy’s recovery from the pandemic, a stance that is helping drive the currency down.

The BOJ’s defense of its 0.25% ceiling on 10-year government debt through repeated fixed-rate buying operations this week further underlines its commitment to keeping rates at rock-bottom levels for now, even as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise borrowing costs again. Fed officials are even hinting that the pace of U.S. tightening could be faster than market consensus.

Economists’ growing opinion that the BOJ might tweak policy or its messaging is likely related to their dominant view that Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki won’t intervene in the currency market to stop the yen’s depreciation. Some 81% of them said direct intervention is unlikely or very unlikely.

Referring to basic economic and market conditions, the International Monetary Fund’s mission chief to Japan said Wednesday that the weakening yen moves reflected fundamentals, signaling little cause for the nation to intervene.

Another key focus of the upcoming meeting is the BOJ’s quarterly outlook report. The central bank will probably raise its price projection to between around 1.5% and 1.9% for the year started this month, compared with a 1.1% forecast in January, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg last week.

Private economists expect the BOJ to push up its forecast to 1.7% for the year before falling to 1.2% in the following year, according to the survey. Kuroda has repeatedly said that the emerging cost-push inflation isn’t sustainable and will be negative for the economy.

Still, following a spike in energy and commodity prices, Japan’s key inflation measure is very likely or likely to touch 2% sometime this year, according to 84% of the respondents, compared with 44% in the March survey.

Toru Fujioka and Cynthia Li

20/04/2022

Why the Yen Has Weakened and What Japan Is Doing About It.

The Bank of Japan stands out among major central banks with its commitment to maintain rock-bottom interest rates to boost a moribund economy, even as surging inflation worldwide spurs the U.S. Federal Reserve to roll back stimulus and raise rates. As a result, the yen has weakened dramatically, hitting a 20-year low against the dollar in April. While BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said he’s not bothered by a weaker yen, Japan’s government bonds haven’t been immune from the global rout spurred by rising prices. That’s putting extraordinary strain on a BOJ policy known as yield curve control.

1. What’s a yield curve?
It’s a way to show the difference in the reward investors get for choosing to buy shorter- versus longer-term debt. Most of the time, they demand more for locking away their money for longer periods, with the greater uncertainty that brings. So yield curves usually slope upward.

Explainer: What Causes a Yield Curve to Invert and What That Means

2. What’s the difference in Japan?
Normally market forces determine the yield curve. The BOJ takes a more hands-on approach. Its policy of yield curve control, adopted in 2016, aims to keep 10-year government bond yields around 0% with a quarter of a percentage point, or 25 basis points, of wiggle room either side -- part of its effort to flood the economy with cheap money to try to revive growth. But its control came under tremendous pressure this year because the Fed started raising interest rates, prompting investors to speculate that Japan would follow suit, meaning it would allow the yield to go higher.

3. What’s the BOJ’s response?
The bank has intervened aggressively in the market to keep a lid on the yield. It conducted a four-day unlimited buying spree of government bonds at a fixed rate of 0.25% at the end of March. As a result, 10-year yields eased back to 0.21% on March 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. When the yields rose again in April, it announced another round of unscheduled bond purchases. The bank has used fixed-rate buying several times before, including purchases of 1.6 trillion yen ($13 billion) on July 30, 2018, but never for such a sustained period.

4. Why is the yen so weak?
The biggest reason is the move toward higher interest rates in the U.S., which makes dollar-denominated assets more attractive for investors seeking higher returns. The so-called real yield -- meaning adjusted for inflation -- on benchmark 10-year Treasuries climbed above zero in April for the first time in more than two years, as bond markets moved toward pre-pandemic normality. The actual, or nominal yield on 10-year notes climbed toward 3% -- the highest since 2018 -- as traders continued to bet on an aggressive series of rate hikes from the Fed. Other factors include the strength of the U.S. economy and its labor market while Japan continues to lag behind its peers. Japan’s trade balance staying in the red is also likely feeding into the weaker yen.

5. Why doesn’t Japan raise rates?
Kuroda -- who famously rattled markets with a surprise shift to negative interest rates in 2016, before settling on yield curve control -- keeps saying that it’s too early to cut back monetary easing and raise rates in Japan, where inflation remains relatively muted. In February, Japan’s benchmark inflation measure was still at 0.6%, far below the BOJ’s 2% target. (The bank could raise its projection for the year to the “upper 1% range” in late April, Bloomberg News has reported.) By contrast, in the U.S. the consumer price index increased 8.5% in March from a year earlier, following a 7.9% annual gain in February. The different stances are helping weaken the yen.

6. What does the weak yen mean for the economy?
Historically Japan has welcomed a weakening of the yen as it helps exporters including carmaking giant Toyota Motor Corp. when they repatriate profits made overseas. In the past decade, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ushered in a period of a much weaker yen largely to the applause of the business world. The mood is shifting now though given that costs for commodities and other inputs are rising at the fastest pace in four decades. “There are positive aspects to it, but given the current economic climate, strong negative aspects exist,” Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said in mid-April, referring to the hit to the bottom lines of businesses that can’t pass rising costs on to customers. He added, however, that it was up to markets to decide currency rates. The average household is also feeling the bite from higher prices for imports from energy to food. With the central bank unlikely to budge, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is left trying to temper the impact through government spending, such as fuel subsidies.

7. Could the government intervene?
So far Suzuki has stuck to expressing concern and has refrained from mentioning the possibility of direct intervention in the currency market. But he has been ramping up his language in tandem with the speed of yen losses. If the government does intervene to strengthen the yen, it would be the first time since 1998, when it and the U.S. joined in a massive coordinated yen-buying spree. Any one-sided moves from Japan this time would likely trigger some form of protest from the U.S. side. Japan’s chief currency official said in March he’d discussed the foreign exchange as a major issue with his U.S. counterpart.

8. Where does this leave Kuroda?
It’s an awkward way to spend the last year of his second five-year term as governor. But he’s shaken off any concerns about the negative side effects of a weaker yen, sticking to protecting the credibility of his policy framework. Kuroda often points out it’s the finance ministry, not the BOJ, that is in charge of foreign exchange matters. What happens after Kuroda leaves in April 2023 is another matter. Kishida may choose a successor who takes a more conventional line on policy.

By Yoshiaki Nohara and Yuko Takeo

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