16/06/2026
The Reserve Bank of Australia may be close to ending its rate-hiking cycle, with several economists expecting the cash rate to remain at 4.35% for now. HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham believes the RBA is unlikely to raise rates again because Australia’s economy is already showing signs of weakness, including slower growth, lower confidence, weaker household spending, softer employment, and cooling property prices. Commonwealth Bank and NAB also expect the next move could be a rate cut, although likely not until 2027.
However, not everyone agrees. Westpac still expects two more rate hikes this year, mainly because higher energy and fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions could keep inflation elevated. The main debate is whether the slowing economy will naturally bring inflation down, or whether rising oil prices will force the RBA to tighten policy further.
