Economist as a Job.

Economist as a Job. Purpose of this thing are to ask me anything you want related economy and financial stuff. I will try

Looking back, looking forward. I do start questioning myself, do Jerome Powell make the right decision or the correct de...
27/03/2024

Looking back, looking forward.

I do start questioning myself, do Jerome Powell make the right decision or the correct decision. To maintain Dovish, despite seeing that the economy is still up and kicking. and inflation is still above target both short-term and 12 months inflation.

(Thread).

1). Inflation MoM --- 3 months inflation average 3%.
2). Inflation YoY --- 12 months inflation is 3.2% and projected to move higher until April end.
3). Inflation projections from Cleveland FED show no sign of them decelerating at all. In fact, it is rising.

In conclusion, the FED has no reason to be dovish when it comes to inflation mandate....... BUT WHY? Why, what is the cause that made them become Dovish and might stay Dovish?

If you tell me for Election year... I don't know about that meaning I do not think so as well.

(Thread).........

Let me raise a question, how come the unemployment rate is at a historical low yet. Will it accelerate to the upside of ...
06/02/2024

Let me raise a question, how come the unemployment rate is at a historical low yet. Will it accelerate to the upside of the data fast later in the year?

First of all, the number of people getting employed is increasing and still very tight.

But to me, there are plenty of red flags coming from both Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims. Many of the big companies starting to feel like they will follow this pattern of laying off to make their margin better.

But why would they layoff, off when the labor market is still good? well, let's have a good look at this instead.

PMI from Europe and the USA shows that price and wage growth is a problem to their income (meaning more expenses rising + consumers are becoming less and less).

Now that, connected that their expenses are rising at an alarming rate compared to earnings.

Let me mention that if initial jobless claims start to pick up pace along with Continuing jobless claims, it only illustrates that amount of people who get layoff is rising plus they cannot find the job back within 2 weeks and more.

That alone is related to the health condition that, JOLT (Job opening) is slowly dropping to years low level as well, as many companies are not hiring or even closing their recruitment programs.

If situation of companies struggling continues, it will soon show the continuing trend of moving up from Initial jobless claims and Continuing Jobless Claims.

According to this chart, it is shown the relationship between interest rate and unemployment rate. Remember I said I wou...
28/01/2024

According to this chart, it is shown the relationship between interest rate and unemployment rate.

Remember I said I would show you why every time The FED tightens its monetary policy, it will make the economy hurt and sacrifice growth in order to make inflation go down and make the economy machine run soft (that does mean that the economy has entered a recession).

The FED does not believe in beating inflation without job loss, cause people have money people spend money and Vice Versa.

Thank you.

25/01/2024

What make Central Bank raising rate or trying to tightening their monetary policy.

Because of excessive demand from the consumer and economy, which further lead to unwanted inflation that bring the price of goods and products to higher level than expected.

So in order to remove demand they have to use their monetary policy to make the demand become less and less, and that make inflation growth slower to their targeted level.

But does that work and how do they sacrifice their level of economy. YES 100%.

I will show more data according to that later.

23/01/2024

Good Morning, News coming out from Thailand GDP indicator that the country is growing and projected to grow faster than the previous year.

However, here is my cup of tea. It is now being downgrade the speed of growth to lower than projected. This is not a piece of good news considering that they have been in a slump in exports last year.

+This news might potentially make them go easier or to say easing and could possibly inject more liquid into their economy. --> that could and may result in a weaker baht (Thai domestic currency).

+Weaker baht makes their export more attractive, but that could also flair up inflation risk.

In summary, there are good and bad points about it. The good point is that it makes their export better which results in a recovery in the economy. However, the bad point is that it make their inflation risk increase and make the baht holder feel the less purchasing power. Bad for import....

22/01/2024

1)There are way so many things going on with labor market. and how it is affecting the economy is entirely direct and indirect.

One can view job market or labor market in many difference way and still say it is correct or wrong. In a sense that they are that big as a whole and still is the most important thing to look at from time to time.

Especially the time when alot of uncertainty rise to this whole level.

+The place where companies look for workers and workers look for jobs is called the job market.

+The job market is directly related to the amount of people who do not have a job and amount of people who just have a job. In matter of deeper understanding anything that related to employment are in job market data.

Indicator that related to job market.

-Unemployment rate --> the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.

-Initial jobless claim --> Initial jobless claims measures new and emerging unemployment.

-Continuing jobless claim --> refer to actual number of unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits who filed for unemployment benefits at least two weeks ago.

-Non Farm Payrolls --> Nonfarm payroll refers to the number of jobs in the private sector and government agencies

-Private Nonfarm Payrolls --> Same with NFP just they exclude general government employees, non profit org, private household employees.

-ADP employment change --> ADP employment change measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US.

-Average Hourly Earnings --> Average Hourly Earnings is the average amount employees make per hour in a given month.

-Wage Growth --> wage growth refers to the yearly change in wages and salaries disbursements from government, manufacturing and service industries.

-U6 Unemployment Rate --> total unemployed.

+Now you might wonder why all this boring stuff, but one have to truly understand what those boring thing stand for in order for one to weight how heavy each one really is and how thing could be differ in the deeper sight into the data itself.

The relationship of Inflation and Unemployment rate. Do what make them the most important economic indicator for the eco...
21/01/2024

The relationship of Inflation and Unemployment rate.

Do what make them the most important economic indicator for the economy as a whole.

1. Inflation rise due to price of the certain products increase.
+can be said because of demand over supply.
+What make demand rise, because people can buy more and more.
+So as long as the economy is healthy, and people have plenty of money it is safe to say Inflation are either sticky or kept on rising.

2. Unemployment rate or number of unemployment.
- Indicator that count the amount of people that do not have job.
+same as counting how many people do not have income or simply said money.
+So it is safe to say people who have job have money, who dont do not have money to spend.

++ Simply thoughts more money could lead to more demand, less money could lead to less demand.

Which is why there are many theory about the two. However, the most important one or popular one is "The Phillips Curve".
+Which simply implies that the lower Unemployment rate are the higher and stickier inflation will be. And vice versa to the later end.

Thank you for today.

What makes the FED decide to cut interest rates, despite the high running rate of inflation. Will that decision a force ...
18/01/2024

What makes the FED decide to cut interest rates, despite the high running rate of inflation. Will that decision a force decision or that decision are just because the disinflation that we are experiencing is truly a soft landing.

Okay, so how significant has the data coming from Australia has shown to us as an investor, and how those kind of data h...
18/01/2024

Okay, so how significant has the data coming from Australia has shown to us as an investor, and how those kind of data has their side effect for the economic on the later date.

There are thing that we can call good and bad. Sometimes we investor are confusing between good and bad news or economic...
16/01/2024

There are thing that we can call good and bad.

Sometimes we investor are confusing between good and bad news or economics data.

But this one I promise you it is actually not good, despite it is good for the Dovish drug but it is bad in term of economic.

--> I tend to question, how do I look at soft data and bad economics data.
--> answer are pretty much simple and the same the FEDERAL Reserve will react in a certain way --> could be becoming dovish? or even slowly but make sure their accumulate the problem in other to weight their monetary tools in the right direction.

--> So here my cup of tea, This index actually never have ever been this low. except when we are already in recession or near one.

+So how do we invest in recession, buying Bond safest --> Buying Gold --> YEN ? DOLLAR? CHF? your call really.

My point are that I hope you don't wish for dovish too hard, as we might either get a re-inflation or we might get a recession or economy downturn instead.

So, what is wrong with Germany economy "The sick man of European"? and how I'm looking at it. Key words: -“I’ve never be...
15/01/2024

So, what is wrong with Germany economy "The sick man of European"? and how I'm looking at it.

Key words:
-“I’ve never been so worried about the medium-term outlook for Germany,” said Dirk Schumacher.
-"We are living on order backlogs and they are disappearing,” Wiechers said. “We haven’t hit the bottom.”
-“German customers are spending less, you feel it,” said Joern Brinkmann.
-“It’s one crisis after another…Consumer sentiment is falling again at the start of the year because everything is so uncertain,” said Alexander Grosse.

--> Those key words are very likely pointing out that Germany the biggest economy in Eurozone, are not doing so well and it will continue to do so....

+Problem --> High Inflation + High borrowing cost..

+High Inflation --> Well if you ask me isn't higher product make company earn more, what if I tell you your expense will increase through "Raw Materials" + "Wage growth". The first stage it will less likely to affect due to consumer health is doing good or I say not yet deteriorating.

- Now start imagine this in a way, that we can see price rose higher --> make consumer feel bad about spending money --> or they dont even afford to spend on those anymore.
--> that will lead to sales volume drop while the company squeeze their margin. At certain point they will likely give up --> bankruptcy rising...
--> So company earning problem --> lead to labor problem --> Hiring freeze + more layoff. --> weaker consumer --> weaker economy --> all those will eventually reflect in GDP or Gross Domestic Product.

There might be alot of missing piece or holes in my thought but my point are that inflation is good but too high is bad, too long is bad.

Wait wait, then what do High borrowing cost come in a played a part in all of this. Well it will and should go like this.

Imagine a company is running a deficit their first instinct is to borrow more to invest more and earn more. So imagine that their borrowing cost increase alot or more than they expect.
--> Yes that will help squeeze margin even more, make their downfall accelerate but also make demand fade faster which also ----> lead to decelerating in price move faster.....

Those are my cup of tea. I hope you enjoy a beer or fun drink as my friends always said.

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