25/06/2026
__________________________________________________
SHARES - TIME TO MAKE A KILL FROM THE KENYA'S STOCK MARKET?__________________________________________________
Family Bank listed 1.66 billion shares on the NSE via **Listing by Introduction** at a base price of **Sh18**. This means no new money was raised; existing shareholders are simply trading on the open market.
The stock hit a high of Sh28.60 on day one but quickly cooled down to close its second trading day at **Sh24.65** (a 5.19% daily drop). Do not get caught up in emotional market noise; here is the hard factual split on how to play this counter.
Major institutional anchors (like the KTDA) hold the bulk of these shares. Low immediate supply means the price will jump or drop sharply on relatively low trading volumes.
* **Profits are Surging:** Q1 2026 net profit jumped 52.6% to Sh1.6 billion. The underlying business is highly profitable, but open-market listing means early Over-the-Counter (OTC) investors are actively dumping shares to cash out, which creates selling pressure.
# # # # THE TWO TRADING STRATEGIES # # # #
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# # OPTION A: The Short-Term Swing Approach (0 to 3 Months)
---------‐--------------------------------------------------------------------------
* **The Reality:** High volatility and price discovery are underway. The stock is currently correcting downwards from its opening-day hype.
* **The Move:** **Do not buy the peaks.** Wait for the initial wave of selling from old OTC shareholders to bottom out. Look for a stable price floor to form around the Sh21–Sh23 range. Buy the dips during panics, and sell into short-term liquidity spikes when retail momentum aggressively pushes the price up.
-‐----‐--------------‐--------------------------------------------------------------
# # OPTION B: The Long-Term Value Approach (Holding to 2029)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* **The Reality:** The bank is well-capitalized after raising Sh8 billion in Tier II capital in 2025. Their explicit goal is to transition into a regional holding company and cross the threshold into a Tier 1 Bank by 2029.
* **The Move:** **Accumulate and ignore daily price charts.** Treat the current post-listing price dip as a discount window. Accumulate a solid position over the next 6 months to lock in an attractive yield. Hold the counter to capture structural re-ratings as the bank expands regionally and secures premium Tier 1 market valuations over the next 3 years.
# # # Ex*****on Timeline
-----------------------------------------
1. The Wait-and-Watch Window
Weeks 1–3
Let the initial post-listing settlement volatility play out. Monitor daily volumes to see exactly where the selling pressure from legacy OTC holders begins to dry up.
2. Strategic Position Entry
Months 1–3
Tranche your capital. Buy in blocks during downward market movements rather than deploying all your cash at a single price point.
3. Fundamental Health Check
Every Quarter
Review quarterly financial statements. Ensure the bank's aggressive growth doesn't cause a spike in non-performing loans (bad debts) or wipe out their current cost-to-income efficiencies.
^END^
