TEAM Asset Management

27/08/2025

There were contrasting fortunes across global stock markets last week as investors weighed dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and hotter than expected inflation reports. The FTSE 100 was one of the strongest performers, rising 1.1% to hit a new record high, supported by gains in mining, retail and banking stocks.
The Federal Reserve’s annual economic summit for central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming was the key for focus for markets during the week, especially Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday. Powell, and his colleagues at the Fed, have steadfastly resisted pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates due to concerns that tariffs will feed through to higher consumer price inflation in the US.
However, recent weakness in the jobs market has put policymakers in a more challenging position and Powell acknowledged that “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance”. Investors interpreted the remarks as a clear signal that the Fed will resume its rate cutting cycle and money market futures are now pricing in an 83% chance of a cut at its next meeting in September.

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There were contrasting fortunes across global stock markets last week as investors weighed dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and hotter than expected inflation reports. The FTSE 100 was

08/04/2025

In this column last week, I advised caution ahead of President Trump’s Liberation Day announcement on ‘reciprocal’ trade tariffs. Although bad news was expected, the level and magnitude of the tariffs now due to start today, exceeded the most hawkish of commentators. Neither did anyone think they could be based on such an arbitrary formula.

The ferocity of the three-day trading reaction that followed, resulted in falls of between 10-15% in major markets, tells us how investors feel about the Trump administration. Markets are focusing on how the confidence shock to consumers and businesses will impact inflation and growth in both the USA and the rest of the world. Depending on what retaliatory approaches other governments choose, an American economic recession is now a slight odds-on favourite for this year.

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In this column last week, I advised caution ahead of President Trump’s Liberation Day announcement on ‘reciprocal’ trade tariffs. Although bad news was expected, the level and magnitude of th

07/04/2025

What is happening?
Be careful what you wish for is the message emanating from Wall Street. Feint hopes of a watered-down version of reciprocal tariffs set to be unleashed on America’s trading partners on April 2, labelled ‘Liberation Day’ by the Make America Great Again (MAGA) team, were dashed by a howitzer from the President.

In true Trump fashion, the Donald held up a gameshow-style poster board outlining the tariffs the administration contends are ‘charged’ to the U.S., as well as a column of aggressive and far-reaching ‘discounted’ tariffs the U.S. would implement in response.

Putting aside the methodology used, the long and short of it is a 10% baseline tariff on almost every one of America’s trading partners, though many nations such as China, Vietnam, and Taiwan are subject to far steeper rates.

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Be careful what you wish for is the message emanating from Wall Street. Feint hopes of a watered-down version of reciprocal tariffs set to be unleashed on America’s trading partners on April

01/04/2025

President Trump hit the headlines again in a recent social media post which said ‘for decades the U.S has been ripped off and abused by every nation in the world, both friends, or foe. Now it is the time for the good old USA to get some of the money, and respect back. God bless America.’

The result of this along with an announcement of imposing 25% tariffs on imports of finished cars and certain car parts was more than enough to create added market anxiety with share prices nose diving across the world.

Liberation day is (2nd April) today according to President Trump and the White House staff have been busy studying and investigating all the country’s trading relationships. All reports should have been fed into the President by yesterday so that he can make important tariff announcements at 8pm, our time tonight.

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President Trump hit the headlines again in a recent social media post which said ‘for decades the U.S has been ripped off and abused by every nation in the world, both friends, or foe. Now it

14/03/2025

As we embrace, and navigate, ‘correction territory’, the industry label assigned to market drawdowns of 10% or greater, a soothing message from the 52 corrections that have taken place since 1950: they happen, and frequently. Market volatility is the price of additional expected returns. Don’t panic, this too shall pass.

With that said, an additional factor in this cycle has our attention that may have important implications for the growth trajectory of America: ‘the wealth effect’.

Buoyed by abundant liquidity, euphoric consumer sentiment, and two sensational years of returns, American stock market holdings rose approximately $300 billion to $56 trillion in 2024, a record high, according to data from the Federal Reserve.

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As we embrace, and navigate, ‘correction territory’, the industry label assigned to market drawdowns of 10% or greater, a soothing message from the 52 corrections that have taken place since

13/03/2025

Confidence, and by extension sentiment, is a fragile thing.

We are currently hitting an air pocket in risk assets as the lens of the market has turned towards policy uncertainty, growth disappointments and a weakening labour market. This is bad news for growth-related companies that are (generously) priced to grow strongly into the future.

Crypto, leveraged ETFs, high beta, and high momentum stocks, the darling trades of 2024, are being vapourised.

The news headlines (designed to create ratings and pay for advertising) are flashing red, recession chatter is now incessant, and all the talk is of how far this ‘correction’ will go.

Spoiler alert: no one has a clue.

If we rewind the clock to the beginning of 2025, we noted:

-weak underlying breadth in the major US averages,
-a chasm in US valuation (expensive) differentials vs rest of the world,
-sell side strategist FOMO, evidenced by the huge lift-off in end of year S&P targets by Wall St,
-euphoric sentiment, shown by responses to the outlook for stock market prices over the next 12M,
-elevated risk positioning, evidenced by mutual fund, hedge fund, and retail skew towards US high growth sectors
-the Trump factor, (wildly unpredictable), and
-the spectre of significant US tax-related selling into April (forced selling of winning US stocks to pay domestic tax bills)…

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Confidence, and by extension sentiment, is a fragile thing. We are currently hitting an air pocket in risk assets as the lens of the market has turned towards policy uncertainty, growth dis

12/03/2025

US blue-chip stocks endured their worst week since September as concerns over the near-term impact of the White House’s policies on the US economy intensified. Once again, the high-flying “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks suffered the steepest losses, led by Tesla which fell 22%. Shares in Elon Musk’s electric vehicle manufacturer have more than halved since reaching an all-time high in mid-December, wiping out $825 billion in market value.

The initial euphoria in the wake of the US election on expectations that the returning president’s pro-business agenda, including cuts to taxes and red tape, would boost the economy already seems a long time ago, and both the blue-chip S&P (-6.2%) and technology focussed Nasdaq (-10.9%) indices are in negative territory since the inauguration on January 20.

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US blue-chip stocks endured their worst week since September as concerns over the near-term impact of the White House’s policies on the US economy intensified. Once again, the high-flying “Ma

05/03/2025

Only three months ago, widespread discontent over the perilous state of Europe’s largest economy led to the collapse of Germany’s coalition government, paving the way for snap elections in February 2025 and striking another body blow for a country already struggling to attract global capital.

Last night, the new German coalition unveiled plans for what has been called the biggest and fastest fiscal policy shift in post German unification history.

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Only three months ago, widespread discontent over the perilous state of Europe’s largest economy led to the collapse of Germany’s coalition government, paving the way for snap elections in Fe

05/03/2025

Markets have quickly become accustomed to the noise and volatility under Trump 2.0, but last week saw the biggest gyrations yet as a deepening rift between America and its allies over tariffs and Ukraine underscored that there is a new world order for markets to navigate. High-flying technology stocks, including the “Magnificent Seven”, were most exposed and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 4.9%, pushing it into negative territory for the current year to date.

Tech stocks have been under a cloud since the emergence of China’s DeepSeek, an artificial intelligence (AI) powered chatbot, in January called into question whether US companies will continue to dominate the sector. Nvidia, the manufacturer of the advanced chips required to build AI infrastructure, has been one of the biggest winners, propelling it become the most valuable company in the world earlier in the year with a market capitalisation of $3.6 trillion.

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Markets have quickly become accustomed to the noise and volatility under Trump 2.0, but last week saw the biggest gyrations yet as a deepening rift between America and its allies over tariffs

05/03/2025

Team plc, the Jersey based, wealth, asset management and complementary financial services group, has announced its final results for the year to 30th

04/03/2025

Major US equity indices managed to eek out marginal new all-time highs during the month, before turning sharply lower. The spectre of a world trade war under President Trump and his MAGA (Make America Great Again) team, tariff policy gyrations, and dramatic news flow regarding the ongoing activities of DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency) all weighed on sentiment.

The American economy is suddenly facing a growth scare, a scenario considered to be an extremely low probability event at the beginning of the year according to Bloomberg surveys of professional forecasters. The Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now projecting an economic contraction in the first quarter of 2025 of -1.5%. Just ten days ago the projection was +2.3%. Four weeks ago, it was +3.9%. Wow.

In addition to slowing growth, warning signs have emanated from the labour market, where weekly unemployment claims have risen to the highest level since October 2024. Separately, recent US consumer surveys are highlighting waning consumer confidence, and a material rise in forward looking inflation expectations, which is sure to attract the attention of the Federal Reserve.

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Major US equity indices managed to eek out marginal new all-time highs during the month, before turning sharply lower. The spectre of a world trade war under President Trump and his MAGA (Mak