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Stock Trader THE BIG MONEY ISN'T IN THE BUYING AND SELLING BUT IN THE WAITING. YET, ALSO IN THE WISDOM, TO GET OUT RIGHT BEFORE MARKETS START COLLAPSING.

TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE. WHEREAS TIMING IS THE SUPREME JUDGE JURY AND EXECUTIONER. NEVER EVER ARGUE WITH TIMING!

08/09/2026

WHAT IS A MELT-UP ..... ???

Why am I mentioning it, again and again ?!

A melt‑up is a sharp, rapid, and often irrational rise in asset prices, driven not by fundamentals but by fear of missing out (FOMO).

A melt‑up is of course, by its own nature, the opposite of a meltdown: markets surge because investors rush in, not because the underlying economy or earnings justify it, my dear friends. Be VERY mindful of this concept !!

A melt‑up is caused by FOMO buying: investors pile in because prices are rising fast. Short covering: bearish traders are forced to buy back positions (they didn't see it coming .....).
Liquidity waves: central bank easing or excess cash in markets, and they get in at the very last moment.
Sentiment extremes: optimism overwhelms rational analysis. It's of course a totally IRRATIONAL sentiment !!

But how does it materialize, in practice ?
Prices accelerate parabolically, that's for sure. Volatility increases upward, not downward. Fundamentals (earnings, GDP, valuations) stop mattering: people arent' reasoning anymore. Media headlines turn euphoric. EVERYBODY turns euphoric !!
Retail participation spikes, adding fuel to fuel, to a fire ALREADY totally out of control.

They often precede sharp corrections. A melt‑up is typically the final phase of a bull market, when sentiment becomes unsustainably optimistic.

The PERFECT example is of course the dot‑com bubble (late 1999–2000). Or, if you like, think about the Bitcoin’s parabolic moves in 2017 and 2021. Almost all small‑caps and tech stocks rally when liquidity floods the market in that way ....

As I've repeatedly written we're creating the PERFECT conditions to get one. And it could be much, much nearer than most people think... I don't think i'm wrong, on the contrary.

IT'LL BE VERT INTERESTING TO WATCH & WITNESS IT .... my dear friends.

05/08/2026

..... GREENBACK IS FINALLY DOWN !

My dear friends, this is the most important change for the US Stock Markets, right now.
Why?!
Because a stronger dollar hurts Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell and S&P 500 earnings. It's as simple as that. Or .... at least, this is what Wall Street wants to believe, right now. Let's not argue with them ....
Remember my targets I posted previously?
Read them again .....
Most large US companies earn a significant share of their revenue abroad.
When the dollar strengthens:
foreign revenues translate into fewer dollars.
profit margins shrink.
forward earnings expectations fall.
The earnings compression is one of the main reasons the correlation is negative ..... on average.
I'm truly convinced that from this moment till EOY, we'll finally have the blow-off-top I've been writing a lot.
I know, I know, it has been postponed.
But timing perfectly is very difficult and we had many tensions on the markets. Like the Iran war, e.g.
Don't miss this opportunity ....

23/07/2026

HUMANOIDS ARE INEVITABLE. Period !

Humanoid robots feel inevitable because the world is built for human bodies, human tools, and human social expectations. Any machine that wants to operate in our spaces, use our objects, or interact with us efficiently tends to converge toward a human‑like form.
Everything around you — doors, stairs, keyboards, cars, tools, furniture, etc. is optimized for:
two arms
two legs
human height
human reach
human dexterity
A robot shaped like a human can immediately use all of this without redesigning the world.
If you build a robot with wheels, tentacles, or four legs, it needs special environments.
A humanoid already fits into our environment.
Manipulation: hands are unbeatable
Human hands have:
20+ degrees of freedom
precision grip
power grip
fingertip sensitivity
To use tools, open containers, type, cook, repair machines, a hand-like structure is simply the most versatile.
Stairs, curbs, ladders, uneven terrain, narrow corridors.
Wheels fail here. Tracks are bulky.
Legs win.
People interact more naturally with machines that stand at human height, gesture, maintain eye contact, move in familiar ways.
This isn’t about making robots “cute”; it’s about reducing cognitive friction.
Humanoids can replace human labor without redesigning factories, warehouses, or workflows.
If a robot can:
walk where a human walks
use the same tools
perform the same tasks
…then companies don’t need to rebuild infrastructure.
THIS IS THE WINNING STRATEGY, my dear friends.
INVEST NOW IN HUMANOIDS COMPANIES !!
Don't wait any longer. Tomorrow will already be TOO late.
Modern AI models understand human behavior, human objects, and human environments.
A human-shaped robot is the natural “body” for that intelligence.
Humanoids aren’t inevitable because they’re “human-like”; they’re inevitable because evolution already solved the optimization problem of navigating Earth’s environment.
Nature spent millions of years refining:
balance
reach
dexterity
energy efficiency
sensory placement
Engineers are discovering that the human form is not sentimental, it’s practical.
Robots shaped like humans will likely become:
warehouse workers
construction assistants
home helpers
disaster responders
elderly care companions
Not because they mimic us emotionally, but because they fit into the world we already built.
JUST IMAGINE ALL THE APPLICATIONS, my dear friends.
Just close your eyes, for a moment, ..... and imagine !
As always, I don't suggest single stocks.
But I can tell you that I'm already invested. Don't wait. Act now !

IT'S ABOUT TIME TO REFLECT !!!
23/07/2026

IT'S ABOUT TIME TO REFLECT !!!

01/07/2026

INFLATION IS NOT GOING UP ....

No, my dear friends, the Fed will NOT hike .... Rest assured !

Major institutions expect inflation to keep falling globally: the key drivers are already visible in the data: cooling demand, normalized supply chains, and tight monetary policy. The effect of the Iran war has disappeared. Oil price has crashed. Here’s the full picture, grounded in the latest IMF, OECD, and FocusEconomics projections.

Why global inflation will keep falling:
1. Supply chains are healing. Global CPI inflation has peaked, bottlenecks are disappearing. Supply chains have normalized and shipping/logistics pressures eased. Alternative routes have been adopted, bypassing Iran.

2. Central banks kept interest rates high: weighing on economic activity and demand, helping disinflation. The IMF notes that high rates and reduced fiscal support are key forces keeping inflation on a downward path.

3. Global growth is slowing, slower growth = weaker price pressures.

4. Commodity prices have stabilized. Energy prices are starting to go down again. This removes the biggest inflation accelerator.

5. Wage growth is strong but no longer accelerating
Wages remain robust, but the OECD confirms inflation is continuing to fall despite this, meaning wage‑price spirals are not materializing.

Why some analysts say inflation could “crash”
This refers to the possibility that inflation could fall faster than expected if:
demand weakens more sharply,
high interest rates bite harder,
China’s slowdown drags global prices down,
or financial markets correct due to high debt and stretched valuations (OECD warning).

These are risks, not certainties.
In my view we're headed to a global recession.

So, what could stop inflation from falling?
Even though the trend is downward, several forces could keep inflation sticky:
Trade protectionism (tariffs, reshoring) keeps goods prices higher.
Geopolitical tensions (Iran war, Ukraine) could push energy prices up again.
Fiscal policy remains looser than pre‑pandemic in many countries.
So: inflation is falling, but not guaranteed to keep it that way.

Bottom line: global inflation is clearly declining, driven by healed supply chains, tight monetary policy, and slower growth.
For the time being, this remains the baseline scenario.
Once the recession has started, it'll keep falling even more .... Together with interest rates, which are headed to zero.

DISINFLATION will then be the real problem, NOT inflation.

NEVER lose the correct perspective, my dear friends.

18/06/2026

I LOVE WITCHES !
But when they're 3 .... Oh my ! Oh my!
Anyway, triple witching does NOT inherently bring markets down.
It's happening today because US markets are close tomorrow.
Witches come out on Fridays ONLY .... usually.
What it does bring is volatility, volume spikes, and sometimes weird intraday moves, but there is no statistical evidence that markets fall on triple‑witching days.
Triple witching on markets actually is the triple simultaneous expiration of:
Stock index futures
Stock index options
Single‑stock options
It happens four times a year (March, June, September, December).
And here we are today.
This creates massive position unwinding, hedging adjustments, and dealer rebalancing.
It does NOT push markets down.
On the contrary, historical data shows that triple witching days have higher volume, not necessarily negative returns.
The S&P 500 has been slightly positive on average on triple‑witching Fridays.
The week of triple witching is often choppy, but not consistently bearish.
The myth, my dear friends, comes from the fact that dealers unwind hedges. Funds rebalance. And gamma exposure (which is the total amount that market makers are exposed to, across all options on a stock or index) collapses.
These can create sharp intraday drops, but they are not directional.
Why people think it’s bearish ?! Because triple witching often produces:
1) Intraday sell programs. When options expire, dealers may unwind long‑gamma hedges and this can cause fast downward moves, but they are mechanical, not fundamental.
2) Index rebalancing
June and December often coincide with index rebalances and this can create sell pressure in certain names.
3) Volatility spikes. More volatility = more visible red candles → people remember the drops, not the recoveries.
I'm old enough to remember quadruple witching (when single‑stock futures existed) that used to be much more chaotic.
Now that single‑stock futures are irrelevant, the effect is milder.
Moreover: triple witching often marks the end of hedging flows, which can actually release markets upward the following week.
This is why the Monday after triple witching is often stronger than the Friday itself.
So, bottom line: triple witching increases volume, increases volatility, increases dealer hedging flows.
BUT, it does NOT have a bearish bias.
It’s a volatility event, not a directional event.

Do NOT buy today, my dear friends, wait for Monday !

10/06/2026

WARS .. WARS ....... WARS ........... !

Wars DO shake markets in the very short term, but historically they are far less damaging than people expect because markets care more about economic fundamentals than about geopolitical fear.
Below is the clear, evidence‑based explanation you’ll appreciate.
Wars usually don’t crash stock markets (and sometimes markets even rise):
1) Markets price in uncertainty, not violence
The biggest enemy of markets is uncertainty, not war itself.
- Before a conflict: uncertainty is high → markets fall.
- Once the conflict starts: uncertainty drops (the scenario becomes known) → markets often rebound.
This is why:
- WWII: US markets bottomed in 1942, then rallied strongly during the war.
- Gulf War 1991: markets fell before the invasion, then rallied once the attack began.
- Russia–Ukraine 2022: markets dropped before Feb 24, then stabilized after the invasion.
Markets hate not knowing, not the war per se.
2) Wars usually boost government spending
War = massive fiscal stimulus.
- Governments increase spending on defense, logistics, energy, infrastructure.
- This injects liquidity into the economy.
- Liquidity supports corporate earnings → supports stock prices.
Historically, wartime spending has often reduced unemployment and increased industrial production.
3) Most wars are regional, not global
Unless a war directly hits the world’s financial center (USA), global markets remain resilient.
Examples:
- Middle East conflicts → oil spikes, but US markets remain stable.
- Russia–Ukraine → Europe hit harder, US markets less affected.
- Israel–Hamas → minimal global market impact.
Investors distinguish between local damage and global economic risk.
4) Markets rotate into beneficiaries
War creates winners and losers.
Money rotates rather than disappearing.
Beneficiaries:
- Defense stocks
- Energy (oil, gas)
- Commodities (wheat, metals)
- Cybersecurity
- Industrial production
Losers:
- Airlines
- Tourism
- Emerging markets near the conflict
The index as a whole often stays stable because sector rotations offset each other.
5) Central banks often intervene
During major geopolitical shocks, central banks tend to:
- cut rates
- provide liquidity
- stabilize credit markets
This “monetary cushion” supports equities.
Example:
After 9/11, the Federal Reserve injected massive liquidity → markets recovered quickly.
6) Human psychology overestimates geopolitical risk
People imagine worst‑case scenarios.
Markets price probabilities, not emotions.
Historically:
- Most wars do NOT cause global recessions.
- Most wars do NOT destroy global supply chains.
- Most wars do NOT involve superpowers directly.
So the economic impact is usually smaller than the emotional impact.
Wars are NOT as damaging to stock markets because:
- uncertainty drops once the conflict starts
- governments inject massive spending
- central banks support liquidity
- markets rotate into beneficiaries
- most wars are regional, not systemic
- investors overestimate geopolitical risk
Markets react to economic math, not to fear.

But, as I already previously stated many, many times, I do NOT discuss single stocks ....

BE PATIENCE, my dear friends, "blowofftop" IS coming ....

READ THIS very, very CAREFULLY !Do NOT rush into immediately:
10/06/2026

READ THIS very, very CAREFULLY !
Do NOT rush into immediately:

27/05/2026

Don't EVEN doubt it: the melt-up final stage is just beginning.
I've therefore decided to raise my targets:
S&P at 10,000
Russell at 4.000
Nasdaq Composite at 36,000

09/03/2026

No, my dear friends, WWIII is NOT coming.
Calm down ....
I know what you're thinking.....
I'll let you equally know, therefore, that absolutely NOTHING has changed !
In order to reassure you I'm posting my targets, just to show you my confidence:
Russell2000 3,800
Nasdaq (composite) 32,000
AND, exactly because of this war, they'll most probably be EVEN conservative .... Believe it or not !
Have faith. You'll be rewarded !
Again: I'll post ONLY at the end of the blowofftop.
We'll reassess the whole situation then, all together.
I know what I'm writing ..... HEAD ON YOUR SHOULDERS.

Indirizzo

Bergamo

Sito Web

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