13/11/2016
Cash is Dead. Long live Debt
Cash-a safe haven is the first myth broken and today we see a scramble all across the country for people putting money in the banks. There is about
Rs 15 lacs crores of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 denominations notes. Assuming 30% of the amount being exchanged for new currency and also certain
notes not being deposited at all (wealth disruption); balance funds will necessarily come into banking system.
Due to the increased liquidity in the banking system, there is going to be a large demand / supply mismatch for fixed income instruments. Also,
there will be no immediate new demand from corporates for loans and even banks will not easily lend the money to corporates due to existing NPAs.
Demand from corporate will trickle from next fiscal year for CAPEX. Since no bank can afford to keep funds idle, this huge supply could lead to a
surge in the prices of G-Secs and bonds. A case of too much money chasing very few securities. Banks could also cut the deposit rates going forward.
Currently Bank FD rates are 7-7.5% p.a. (post tax 5-5.5% p.a.)
Will Banks stop accepting Fixed Deposits??? Unheard BUT.., you never know.
Hence, this is a structural game changer for our economy and not only it is extremely positive for G-Secs / Bonds, even RBI would look at further
rate cuts in the near term. Increase in demand for G-secs will lead to increase in prices and hence, one can look at duration debt funds for investment
right now.
The list of the funds with AUM greater than Rs. 1000 crs are as follows: