LLama Research

LLama Research Investing without the chaos. No tips. No FOMO. No noise. Clarity-first advisory. Built for the long game. SEBI RIA registered.

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Everyone sees slowdown.We see buffers.Fear is loud.Data is quiet.GDP ~7- 8%.Credit 14.3%.FX strong.Fiscal steady.DIIs ab...
28/04/2026

Everyone sees slowdown.
We see buffers.

Fear is loud.
Data is quiet.

GDP ~7- 8%.
Credit 14.3%.
FX strong.
Fiscal steady.
DIIs absorbing every FPI exit.

Nothing is breaking. It’s being misread.

Markets don’t crash on noise.
They reprice when narrative ≠ reality.

Fear is priced in.
Buffers aren’t.

The gap is where alpha lives.

Still reacting? Or reading deeper?

📊 April Macro Dashboard is live.
Link in bio.

Six years ago, Nifty fell 38% in six weeks.Headlines invoked 1929. Portfolios bled. Smart people sold at the bottom.Then...
27/04/2026

Six years ago, Nifty fell 38% in six weeks.
Headlines invoked 1929. Portfolios bled. Smart people sold at the bottom.
Then the end became the beginning.
Fast forward to March 2026. Nifty 14.5% off peak. Rupee at 95. FPIs sold ₹1.13 lakh crore in a single month, the biggest exit on record. “Worst since 2020” trending everywhere.
Different trigger. Same emotional math.
Here’s what nobody tells you about corrections: the ingredients rarely change. Global shock, foreign outflows, currency panic, red screens. Rinse, repeat. Only the headlines get a fresh coat of paint.
What changes outcomes isn’t the depth of the drawdown.
It’s whether you wrote your playbook before the panic, or you’re scribbling one during it.
Conviction is cheap at all-time highs. It’s expensive at the bottom. That’s the whole game.
Corrections don’t ask permission.
Neither do recoveries.
Save this. The next one is already on its way.
📍 Schedule your clarity call → llamaresearch.in.
Investment in securities markets are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. SEBI Reg. No.: INA000018780 | LLPIN: ACB-6074.

Markets feel weak. Portfolios feel worse.But the data? It’s telling a very different story.GST at record highs.Factories...
24/04/2026

Markets feel weak. Portfolios feel worse.
But the data? It’s telling a very different story.

GST at record highs.
Factories picking up.
Domestic investors buying aggressively.
Foreign investors? Already exited.

This isn’t the start of a collapse.
This is what a reset looks like before stability returns.

Most investors react to price.
Smart investors track signals.

→ The panic is in prices. Not in data.

Save this for the next red day.
Because clarity compounds faster than fear.

Follow for data-driven market insights.

The Nifty Smallcap 100 / Nifty 50 ratio has roundtripped to 2021 levels. The froth is gone.Peak was Sep 2024 at 0.85. To...
23/04/2026

The Nifty Smallcap 100 / Nifty 50 ratio has roundtripped to 2021 levels.
The froth is gone.

Peak was Sep 2024 at 0.85. Today we're at 0.67.
Here's what most people miss: 0.65–0.67 was the resistance smallcaps couldn't break through in 2022.

The same level is now support.
Old ceilings become new floors.
The last two times this ratio tagged support, smallcaps didn't just hold. They led.

March 2020 at 0.45 → +105% in 12 months.
June 2022 at 0.50 → +42% in 12 months.
April 2026 at 0.67 → right at the support zone.

This isn't a falling knife. It's a reset.
Smallcaps took the pain first. They usually lead the recovery.

Save this for when they start moving.

—
LLama Research LLP | SEBI Reg. No.: INA000018780

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Stocks and bonds fell together in March 2026. The "nowhere to hide" panic is back.Except the data tells a different stor...
22/04/2026

Stocks and bonds fell together in March 2026. The "nowhere to hide" panic is back.
Except the data tells a different story.

In the last three years, stocks and bonds fell in tandem three times. Sep 2022. Feb 2023. Apr 2024.
The Nifty 12-month return after each? +16.3%. +27.1%. +7.7%.

Three for three. All green. Average: +17%.
March 2026 is the fourth instance.

When diversification "fails," it feels like the rules broke. But rare events leave data. And the data says what looks like the end is often the setup.

Chaos isn't random. Recovery isn't either.
Save this for the next "nowhere to hide" headline.

—
LLama Research LLP | SEBI Reg. No.: INA000018780

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

The fastest way out of debt isn't motivation. It's math.Most people attack debt by emotion. The smallest balance. The mo...
21/04/2026

The fastest way out of debt isn't motivation. It's math.
Most people attack debt by emotion. The smallest balance. The most embarrassing one. The card that hurts to look at.
Wrong enemy.

The real enemy is the interest rate. The higher it is, the faster it compounds against you.

The Debt Avalanche Method:
1. List every debt: balance, rate, term, minimum.
2. Rank by interest rate. Highest first.
3. Pay minimums everywhere. Throw every spare rupee at the highest-rate debt until it dies.
4. Move down the list. Repeat.

It's simple. It's logical. It's brutal. And it works.

Why most people quit: no early wins, no dopamine. The math wins, but the brain doesn't applaud.

That's the trade. Discipline now. Freedom later.
DM us "AVALANCHE" and we will send you our Debt Avalanche Tracker.

—

LLama Research LLP | SEBI Reg. No.: INA000018780

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Iran war 2026, Fed rate cuts, and why Indian equity bulls shouldn't panic.Everyone's waiting for the Fed to blink. Stick...
20/04/2026

Iran war 2026, Fed rate cuts, and why Indian equity bulls shouldn't panic.

Everyone's waiting for the Fed to blink. Sticky inflation says they can't. Bears think that's game over for equities.

History disagrees.
In 2001-2003, the Fed held at 1% while Iraq war spending pumped $1T+ into the system. Sensex: +73%.
By 2004, the Fed was hiking. Nifty still rallied 200% over the next three years.

Liquidity didn't come from the Fed. It came from fiscal.
Today, Iran war spending is ramping. Defense budgets are surging. Emergency appropriations are in the pipeline.

The Fed doesn't need to cut. Fiscal is already moving. And fiscal floods EM first.

Save this for the next Fed meeting panic.

LLama Research LLP | SEBI Reg. No.: INA000018780
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Nifty Q1 lows aren't random. They're seasonal.9 of the last 10 years, the Nifty bottomed in Q1. What followed? An averag...
17/04/2026

Nifty Q1 lows aren't random. They're seasonal.

9 of the last 10 years, the Nifty bottomed in Q1. What followed? An average +18.7% rebound over six months.

Not a guarantee. A tendency worth knowing.

March 2026 touched 22,184. If the pattern holds, summer could surprise the sceptics.

Save this. Check back in September.

Clarity beats cheer.

Follow for institutional-grade market research built for India's ambitious professionals.

Nifty EPS estimates for FY26 started at ₹1,200. They are already down to ₹1,070.Shocking? Not really. This happens almos...
14/04/2026

Nifty EPS estimates for FY26 started at ₹1,200. They are already down to ₹1,070.

Shocking? Not really. This happens almost every year.
In 8 of the last 12 years, analyst earnings estimates were cut before year-end.

The average miss? 22%. And yet Nifty compounded at 11% CAGR through all of it.

FY15: Street expected ₹522 EPS. Delivered ₹360.
FY19: Expected ₹570. Got ₹386.
The pattern is clear. Analysts overshoot. Markets don't care.

IT is soft. Consumption is soft. Oil is volatile. But here's the thing. When the drags are already known, they tend to be priced in. Markets don't crash on headlines everyone's already read.

Share this the next time someone panics about an earnings downgrade.

Full earnings analysis in our April MAP report. Link in bio.



Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

₹1.13 lakh crore. Gone. In one month.March saw the biggest monthly FPI exit on record. Every single trading day, they so...
13/04/2026

₹1.13 lakh crore. Gone. In one month.

March saw the biggest monthly FPI exit on record. Every single trading day, they sold.

But here's what the headlines won't tell you.

FPI ownership is now at 16.7%, the lowest in 15 years. The last time it was this low? 2010. What followed was a +78% rally.

Meanwhile, DIIs now own more Indian equities than FPIs. First time since 2003. ₹8.3 lakh crore of domestic buying in FY26 alone.

The sellers are running out. The buyers are already here.

Save this for the next time an FPI headline makes you nervous.

Full breakdown in our April Market Action Pulse report. Link in bio.

When rooms get emotional, we pull up charts.



Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

10/04/2026

Oil at $115. Everyone's panicking about inflation.

But here's what they're missing: When oil rises on supply shocks, equities rise too.

The data since 2009:
→ Nifty return when oil is in uptrend: 20.6%
→ Nifty return when oil is in downtrend: 1.0%

6 out of 7 times oil crossed $100, Nifty was higher 12 months later.

The fear is real. The history says buy it.

Full breakdown in the reel ☝️

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