LLama Research

29/09/2026

Your deposit is losing to inflation. That doesn’t mean rushing out of it is the right move either.

Most people do one of three things when they realise the maths has turned against them. They move everything at once. They move it into whatever performed well last year. Or they move the money that had a date attached to it, the school fee, the down payment, the emergency buffer, and find out the hard way why it was sitting there.

October’s Market Action Pulse is about the part nobody covers: how to move out of deposits without making your position worse. Sequencing. What genuinely belongs in a deposit and should stay. What the switch costs you in tax. And how to size the move so one bad quarter doesn’t undo the decision.

Saturday, 3 October 2026, 11:30 IST. Online, free, live questions at the end. No pitch at the close.

Registration link is in our bio.

LLama Research LLP, SEBI Registered Investment Adviser, Reg. No. INA000018780. BASL Membership No. 2121.

Educational in nature. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

25/09/2026

From 15 October, UPI payments above ₹2,000 carry a 0.4% charge. It is not a tax. You are not the one paying it.

The merchant pays it, not you. It applies only to merchant payments above ₹2,000, and caps at ₹300 once a payment hits ₹75,000.

Untouched: every transfer to a person. Every merchant payment up to ₹2,000. Every merchant taking under ₹1 lakh a month.

The chai stall is exempt. The electronics showroom is not.

Here is the part nobody is saying. Zero MDR was never free. The government paid for it, year after year, through an incentive scheme. This moves part of that bill onto bigger merchants instead.

Your UPI app does not change. Who pays for the rails underneath it does.

Sources: Ministry of Finance notification, 14 September 2026. NPCI circular, 15 September 2026.

LLama Research LLP, SEBI Registered Investment Adviser, Reg. No. INA000018780. BASL Membership No. 2121.

Educational in nature. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

upic

23/09/2026

September’s Market Tea, in four numbers. Same inflation regime, and four things that moved this month.

Credit. Non-food bank credit grew 19.1% year on year in July, against 9.9% a year earlier. Lending to industry went from 6.5% to 20%. Every major segment accelerated.

Autos. The strongest July India’s auto industry has ever recorded, with passenger vehicles up 34.3% and two-wheelers up 22.6%. Worth knowing: the month it is compared against, July 2025, came before the GST cut of September 2025. Part of this growth is a lower price, not a higher income.

Central bank gold. Central banks bought 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter, up 62% on a year ago and a record for any second quarter. They bought more while the price was falling, and no central bank publishes a price target for the gold it holds.

Correlation. Indian equity indices move almost in lockstep with each other, while their link to US equities and to gold is weak. Adding more Indian stocks adds holdings, not diversification.

The easy macro trades are fading. The next phase rewards discipline and selectivity rather than broad direction.

Read or download the full September Market Tea, free: my-app.llamaresearch.in/reports-insights

Or send us a message and we will share it.

LLama Research LLP, SEBI Registered Investment Adviser, Reg. No. INA000018780. BASL Membership No. 2121.

Sources: RBI Sectoral Deployment of Bank Credit, July 2026. SIAM, July 2026. World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026.

Educational in nature. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

21/09/2026

A large salary is not financial security. It just delays the moment you find out.

I see this constantly. Someone earning well, sharp, disciplined, a SIP running every month without fail, investments growing, nothing out of place. And no emergency fund. Not because they cannot afford one. Because nothing has gone wrong yet, and the salary arriving on the 30th has quietly been doing the job an emergency fund is meant to do.

It works perfectly until it doesn’t. A layoff. Three months between roles. The SIP stops because there is nothing left to fund it. Investments get sold at whatever the market happens to be paying that week. Not because the plan failed. Because the cash buffer did.

Security is not built out of the interesting decisions. It comes from the boring ones nobody posts about. Enough cash to live on with no income arriving. Cover for the things that would otherwise be catastrophic. Money invested against a goal rather than a vague sense that investing is sensible.

The people who feel secure are not the top earners. They are the ones for whom a plot twist is an inconvenience rather than a crisis.

That is the difference, and it has nothing to do with how much you make.

LLama Research LLP, SEBI Registered Investment Adviser, Reg. No. INA000018780. BASL Membership No. 2121.

Educational in nature. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

17/09/2026

Japan is not a story about Japan.

For most of two decades it has been the cheapest place on earth to borrow. That money did not stay there. It was borrowed in yen and put to work in assets all over the world, including markets that have nothing to do with Tokyo.

Which means the rate decision in Japan is not a Japanese rate decision. It is a repricing of the cost of leverage everywhere. August 2024 showed what that looks like when it moves quickly, and very little of the damage that week happened in Japanese assets.

We spent a session on this a year ago, not because Japan was in the news, but because the plumbing underneath a market matters more than the headlines coming out of it.

The Bank of Japan decides on Friday, 18 September.

Most Indian portfolios have no Japanese exposure and are affected anyway. That is the part worth understanding.

LLama Research LLP, SEBI Registered Investment Adviser, Reg. No. INA000018780. BASL Membership No. 2121.

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Educational in nature. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

17/09/2026

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates on 16 September, its first hike since July 2023. Unanimous, to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent.

Most coverage will file this as American news. It is not.

They tightened because of energy prices. India imports most of its crude, so the same pressure arrives here as an import bill first, then as a currency question, then eventually as a price on a shelf.

We flagged a second inflation wave as the risk to watch in our January outlook. India’s wholesale prices printed 9.78 percent in July against retail at 4.45 percent. The Fed has now acted on the same pressure from the other side of it.

This does not tell you what to own tomorrow. It tells you what your portfolio is assuming. Fixed income built while rates were falling was built for a different world.

Assumptions, not settings.

LLama Research LLP, SEBI Registered Investment Adviser, Reg. No. INA000018780. BASL Membership No. 2121.

Sources: FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026. Ministry of Commerce and Industry, WPI for July 2026. MoSPI CPI release for July 2026.

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

Educational in nature. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

15/09/2026

11/09/2026

Ten years of disciplined investing builds a portfolio. It does not design one.

Most portfolios I look at were never chosen. They accumulated. A fund a colleague recommended in 2016. ESOPs that vested in 2018. Two stocks from a group chat in 2020. A SIP started and never reviewed. Something bought in a dip because it felt cheap.

Every one of those decisions made sense on the day it was made. That is exactly why nobody notices the shape they add up to.

The balance keeps rising, so nothing feels wrong. But a rising balance only tells you the saving worked. It says nothing about concentration, about four funds holding the same twenty companies, or about positions still sitting there long after the reason for buying them stopped being true.

Three questions worth answering about your own holdings. What percentage is your single largest position. How many of your funds hold the same companies. Which holdings would you buy again today at today’s price.

Most people stop at the first one.

You can get all three from our Analyzer in a few minutes, free, for direct equity holdings:

10/09/2026

WPI is running at 9.78%. CPI is sitting at 4.45%. That gap is not a glitch, it is a lag.

Wholesale inflation went from 0.83% in December to 9.78% now. Seven months. Costs move first, prices move later. Input costs rise, margins compress, then prices reset for the consumer.

Energy did a lot of the lifting here. Crude and mineral oils drove the spike through spring, which means the gap won’t close on its own. A second wave is a real risk.

A lot of portfolios were built on the assumption that disinflation was here to stay. Fixed income priced for falling inflation. Equities priced for margin expansion. Cash expected to hold its value.

Assumptions aren’t settings. Know which ones you’re still running.

Swipe through for the full breakdown.



Mandatory Disclaimer: Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully before investing. SEBI Reg. No.: INA000018780

04/09/2026

In March, we put gold and silver next to the 1970s chart and said the setup rhymed.

Inflation won’t quite sit down. Real rates keep shifting. Central banks keep buying metal.

That’s not a forecast. It’s a reminder of what happens to hard assets when money slowly loses purchasing power.

But what about the money you’re not watching?

Deposits. Debt funds. Cash.

After tax and inflation, their real return may be far smaller than the number on your statement.

We’re breaking that down tomorrow.

Market Action Pulse
Saturday, 5 September | 11:30 AM IST
Online | Free | Live Q&A

Registration link in the comments 👇

LLama Research LLP, SEBI Registered Investment Adviser
Registration No. INA000018780 | BASL Membership No. 2121

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Registration granted by SEBI, membership of BASL and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.

This post is educational in nature and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.