04/08/2014
RBI keeps Monsoon check; Moneytary Policy changes kept on hold:
India’s consumer price inflation rose 7.31% in June, a 43-month low, and much lower than consensus market expectations. Wholesale price-based inflation (WPI), too, slowed to a four-month low of 5.43% in June. Factory output gained 4.7% in May, the fastest pace in 19 months, and manufacturing activity, rose to 53 in July, a 17-month high, in response to a surge in production backed by new orders.
Macroeconomic data are certainly looking better as a backdrop for Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan’s first monetary policy review after the National Democratic Alliance government presented its maiden budget. The rapid pace of improvement in the monsoon over the past few weeks, which narrowed the rainfall deficiency, is another piece of good news.
However, The stubborn manufacturing inflation is also something RBI is certainly not feeling comfortable about. The so-called core inflation, or the non-food, non-oil inflation, in June rose to 3.9%, against 3.8% in May. Read in conjunction with the factory output data of May and PMI data of July, it seems that demand pressure is slowly coming back to Asia’s third largest economy.
Rajan is unlikely to be in a hurry to ease monetary policy soon and go for a rate cut even as RBI will keep a close tab on the progress of the monsoon. Geopolitical risks are also rising and this can have an impact on commodity prices.