Anavaran

01/01/2025

Investment Outlook:

Valuations are moderately expensive. Economic conditions are likely to be subdued in the coming year restricting uptrend in share prices. Nevertheless, there is ample scope for providing demand side stimulus in form of interest rate cuts and tax concessions to provide economic cushion.

Both positive and negative factors seem to be evenly matched. Overall markets to remain range bound in coming year, with lot of churning and asset relocation.

2025 Outlook: Benchmark indices are most likely to remain retrained with more potential for downside than upward swings. This year, Nifty is likely to trade range of 20-25K.

Let's hope for the best and be prepared for worse.

01/01/2025

Happy New Year.

May Lord Bless all of us with health, peace & prosperity in 2025.

31/10/2024

Happy Diwali🪔🪔🪔

01/01/2024

Investment Outlook:

Valuation looks stretched. Moderate economic conditions restrict room for upside price movements. However, ample liquidity and political machoism in election year will prevent massive slide in share prices.

Benchmark indices to remain range bound in coming year, at least for first half of 2024. Unexpected election results could create surprise in second half.

2024 Outlook: Nifty to remain rangebound from 20-24K in coming year.

Let's hope for the best.

01/01/2024

Happy New Year.

May God bless us all with health, peace and prosperity in 2024.

12/11/2023

Happy Diwali!!!

01/01/2022

Happy New Year.

May God Bless us with health, wealth and peace in coming year.

27/08/2021

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29/01/2021

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23/01/2021

NOSTALGIA

2008, the year we entered financial markets, was a rollercoaster year. Sensex peaked at 21K in Jan 2008 and then slumped to bottom at 8K by Oct 2008. With this ended a 5 year bull run that saw markets quintuple.

Trend reversal coupled with butchered indices depressed sentiments and doomsayers dominated market discussions.

BLOWING OWN TRUMPET

With limited knowledge of a novice, we did some quick back of the envelop calculations that yielded base case forecast of 50k for Sensex by 2020.

Was delighted to see Sensex touch our expected levels on 21 Jan 2021. A delay of 21 Days can be tolerated in a 12 year forecast.

HANDFUL OF SALT

But as with all things, the devil is in the details.

2020 Sensex estimate was based on following assumptions:
1. GDP to grow at 8% CAGR during 2008-2020.
2. Inflation to average 6%
3. Corporate earnings growth to mirror nominal GDP growth of 12%.
4. PEG (price earning growth) multiple of 1.0 leading to PE of 14.0

All these assumptions went haywire. While, corporate earnings growth has been half of what we expected, markets are trading at PE multiples of twice of our estimates.

Now wondering, whether achieving 50K Sensex target was by fluke, hunch or prowess.

01/01/2021

Investment Outlook:

Liquidity galore leads to surge in share prices. Current market prices have raced way ahead of their fair values. Market has mistaken medicines as steroids.

2021 Outlook: Sensex expectation ranges from 20 or 21K to 20 and 21K i.e 21K-41K. At current levels of 48K, the forward path looks more like passing through Marianna Trench rather than scaling Mount Everest.

Keeping fingers crossed.