20/08/2026
Gold's Rally, ETF Inflows, and the Role of Recency Bias
We often see people getting more interested in an investment after its price has already gone up. When something has been performing well for some time, it can start to feel more attractive simply because of its recent performance. This is where recency bias comes in, which is our tendency to give more importance to what has happened recently than to the bigger picture when making investment decisions.
Gold offers an interesting example of this behaviour. Rising gold prices can attract more attention from investors, while geopolitical uncertainty and changing interest-rate expectations can also increase demand. Gold is often seen as a safer place to invest during uncertain times. The problem arises when investors start buying more gold simply because its price has been rising, rather than because it fits into their long-term investment plan.
Gold ETF Flows Tell an Interesting Story
Our analysts looked at gold prices and the amount of money going into gold ETFs since January 2024. They found that the two have generally moved in the same direction, with more money tending to flow into gold ETFs when gold prices have been higher.
A clear difference appeared when they looked at the months with the highest and lowest gold ETF investments. In the five months when gold ETF investments were at their highest, an average of ₹11,410 crore came in each month, while gold averaged ₹1,32,479. In the five months when investments were at their lowest, the average was just ₹37 crore, while gold averaged ₹82,290. This suggests that investors were putting significantly more money into gold ETFs when gold prices were already higher.
January 2026 was the strongest example of this trend, with investors putting ₹24,040 crore into gold ETFs while gold touched ₹1,75,217 during the month. The interest in gold ETFs had already been building, with monthly investments rising from ₹7,743 crore in October 2025 to ₹11,647 crore in December 2025. AMFI linked the January surge to the rise in gold prices, along with geopolitical uncertainty and demand for safer assets.
Our analysis also found a positive correlation of 0.45 between gold prices and monthly gold ETF investments since January 2024, which tells us that the two have generally moved together. However, gold prices and investor demand are influenced by several factors, including global events and expectations around interest rates, which can cause prices to move quickly when market expectations change.
We saw an example of this on August 13, when US initial jobless claims came in at 209,000 and added to the economic data being watched by markets for clues about US interest rates. Our tracked gold price series found that gold fell 0.47% on August 13, followed by a further 0.31% decline on August 14.
What Should Investors Do?
The key takeaway is not about whether investors should increase or reduce their exposure to gold. It is about recognising how recent price movements can influence investment behaviour.
When an asset has performed strongly, recency bias can make that performance feel more important than the broader investment context. This is why investment decisions should remain anchored to a clearly defined, objective driven process rather than being influenced by short term price movements or market sentiment.
A disciplined approach means evaluating decisions against long term wealth goals, risk considerations, and the overall portfolio framework. Keeping this process uncomplicated and consistent can help prevent a recent rally from becoming the primary reason behind an investment decision.