09/03/2026
As mentioned in below message Crude touched first level of 105..
On the long-term structure, the resistance drawn from the 2008 high and the March 2022 peak still places the market in a major supply band around $122–$125. That makes this zone the critical decision area right now. As long as crude is trading into this band, volatility is expected to stay elevated, with sharp intramonth spikes and reversals both possible. So the actionable interpretation today is not “wait for month-end,” but rather that $122–$125 is the live resistance zone where the market must prove itself. If price starts sustaining above this area on a rolling basis and builds acceptance toward $128–$130, then the breakout case strengthens materially.
Accordingly, the near-term framework should be expressed in phases, not absolutes. Above $125, the market enters breakout-attempt territory; above $130, the path opens for a larger extension toward $145–$160 first, and then potentially $180–$200 if geopolitical and supply dynamics keep intensifying. On the other hand, if crude repeatedly trades above $122–$125 but cannot hold there and slips back, that would signal exhaustion rather than confirmation, increasing the probability of a retracement toward $105 and potentially $95 later. In short, the monthly chart supports your thesis, but for communication today the sharper line is: $122–$125 is the pressure zone, $130 is the expansion trigger, and repeated failure above $125 reopens downside risk toward $95.
