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07/06/2016

Gold eases from 2-week highs, amid continued rate hike uncertainty
Gold eased from two-week highs on Tuesday in spite of a stronger dollar, as investors continued to react to abstruse comments from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen on the strength of the global economy and the possibility of a summer interest rate hike.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Gold for August delivery traded between $1,237.00 and $1,249.05 an ounce before settling at $1,245.35, down $2.05 or 0.16%. Gold has rallied somewhat from a prolonged slump late last month when the yellow metal briefly dipped below $1,200 to fall to a three-month trough. Since the start of the year, gold futures are still up by approximately 15% holding onto gains from the strongest first quarter of a year in more than a decade.
Gold likely gained support at $1,125.00, the low from February 3 and was met with resistance at $1,304.40, the high from May 2.
Gold closed relatively flat in Tuesday's session as equities worldwide surged in response to Yellen's final public comments before next week's critical Fed meeting. Addressing a luncheon audience at a World Affairs Council event in Philadelphia, Yellen omitted any reference to the timing of the Fed's next interest rate hike. Yellen's stance represented a shift from her position less than two weeks ago when she sent strong indications that the Fed appeared ready to resume tightening of its monetary policy cycle.
Following last December's historic interest rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed has left its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at a targeted range between 0.25 and 0.50% at each of its three meetings this year. Yellen's comments in late-May appeared to suggest that the FOMC could be ready to raise short-term interest rates on multiple occasions before the end of the year, as the labor market and inflation showed signs of firming. At its FOMC meeting in March, the committee's median projections forecasted the potential for two rate increases of 25 basis points each in 2016.
But last week the domestic labor market suffered an unforeseen shock when the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the economy added 38,000 in May, the fewest number of monthly jobs in nearly six years. While maintaining her signature calm disposition, Yellen downplayed the unsettling developments arguing that it is not constructive to attach too much significance to one report. Yellen also emphasized that a potential "leave" vote by U.K. voters in a controversial June 23 referendum could pose serious repercussions to the world economy.
Yellen's comments have done little to sway market sentiments. The CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool lowered the probability of a July rate hike to 24.8% on Tuesday from 25.8% one session earlier. The market sees virtually no chance of a rate hike next week when the FOMC convenes for the two-day meeting on June 14-15. The current probability of a June rate hike fell to 1.9% on Tuesday from 3.8% during the previous day.
Investors who are bullish on Gold are in favor of a gradual tightening of monetary policy by the Fed over the current cycle. Gold, which is not attached to interest rates, struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets in rising rate environments.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell more than 0.15% to an intraday low of 93.75. The index has crashed by more than 5% since early-December.
Silver for July delivery fell 0.072 or 0.44% to $16.375 an ounce.
Copper for July delivery plunged 0.069 or 3.23% to $2.049 a pound.

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01/06/2016

Gold rose in Asia on Wednesday with investors noting mixed China PMI estimates.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for August delivery rose 0.34% to $1,221.65 a troy ounce.
Silver futures for July delivery hained 0.35% to $16.050 a troy ounce. Copper futures for July delivery fell 0.43% to $2.075 a pound.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 49.2, below the 49.3 expected, and down from the previous 49.4.
Earlier in China the semi-official CFLP manufacturing PMI for May came in a bit higher than expected at 50.1, unchanged from the previous month. The non-manufacturing PMI for May came in at 53.1, down from 53.5 the previous month.
China is the world's top copper importer and the world's largest producer of gold and the world's second-largest consumer of the yellow metal behind India.
Overnight, gold inched up/inched on Tuesday amid a relatively flat dollar, as mixed U.S. economic data likely did little to sway the Federal Reserve in either direction ahead of a highly-anticipated interest rate decision from the U.S. central bank next month.
Gold is coming off one of its worst weeks of the year when it plunged more than 2.5%, as investors reacted to strong indications from the Fed that it could raise interest rates when it meets again in mid-June.
Since hitting 15-month highs around $1,300 an ounce at the start of May, gold has plummeted more than $80 an ounce. Still, the precious metal is holding onto massive gains from the first quarter and is on pace for one of its strongest first halves of a year in more than a decade.
On Tuesday morning, the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 0.3% in April, in line with consensus estimates.
It came as consumer spending surged 1.0% on the month, considerably above a downwardly revised flat reading from March. At the same time, personal income increased by 0.4% on the month also line with analyst's forecasts.
The Core PCE Index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, ticked up 0.2% from March's reading, one month after experiencing slight gains of 0.1%. On an annual basis, the core reading rose by 1.6% unchanged from the previous month. The Core PCE Index is the Fed's preferred gauge of long-term inflation. While inflation has firmed somewhat in recent months, it has stubbornly remained under the Fed's 2% targeted objective for the majority of the last three years.
There is currently a 20.6% probably the Fed will raise interest rates in June, according to CME Group's (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:CME) Fed Watch tool, up from 11.3% a month earlier. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has left its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at its current level between 0.25 and 0.50% in each of its first three meetings this year. Some analysts believe the FOMC could wait until after a controversial Brexit vote on June 23 before approving its first rate hike of the year.
Following the FOMC's July meeting, the CME Group says there is a 48.6% chance that the target range of the Fed Funds Rate will be between 0.50 and 0.75%, up from 26.0% a month ago.
Any rate hikes by the Fed this year are viewed as bearish for Gold which struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets in rising rate environments.

26/05/2016

24/05/2016

Oil turns higher as market players look ahead to API stockpile data
Oil prices were higher in North American trade on Tuesday, reversing overnight losses, as investors looked ahead to fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products.
The American Petroleum Institute will release its inventories report later in the day, while Wednesday’s government report could show crude stockpiles fall by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended May 20.
Prices were lower earlier in the day on signs that supply disruptions in Canada and Libya are coming to an end.
Media reports saying that Iran plans to increase oil export capacity to 2.2 million barrels by the summer and has no intentions to freeze its level of oil production at the upcoming OPEC meeting also contributed to the bearish sentiment.
Crude oil for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to a session low of $47.64 a barrel before turning higher to trade at $48.42 by 12:35GMT, or 8:35AM ET, up 34 cents, or 0.71%. A day earlier, New York-traded oil futures lost 33 cents, or 0.68%.
Nymex oil prices are up nearly 80% since falling to 13-year lows at $26.05 on February 11 as declining U.S. shale output boosted sentiment. However, with prices now at levels that make drilling economical for some firms, the oil rig count might start rising soon and the decline in U.S. production may slow.
According to oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. was unchanged at 318 in the latest reporting week, after eight straight weeks of declines.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for July delivery tacked on 24 cents, or 0.5%, to $48.59 a barrel after falling to a daily low of $47.80.
On Monday, London-traded Brent futures shed 37 cents, or 0.76%, amid easing concerns over global supply outages.
Oil futures have been well-supported in recent weeks due to a combination of Nigerian, Libyan and Venezuelan supply outages, as well as reduced production of Canadian crude as a result of fires in Alberta's oil sands region. However, as some of the supply disruptions are subsiding, traders are putting their focus back on the growth of global oil supply.
Brent futures prices are up by roughly 85% since briefly dropping below $30 a barrel in mid-February, despite the collapse of talks at a Doha summit in April aimed at achieving a production freeze among OPEC and Non-OPEC producers. OPEC meets on June 2 in Vienna and may discuss the freeze initiative again.
Meanwhile, Brent's premium to the WTI crude contract stood at 17 cents a barrel, compared to a gap of 27 cents by close of trade on Monday.