Sattva Capital

01/02/2024

Fed meet 01.02.2024- Key takeaways:

1. Regarding rate cut in March’24. “ probably not the most likely case or base case”

2. Happy with the progress of inflation trajectory but Need more confidence that inflation will stay at 2% target to start cutting rates.

3. Growth is very good and is posing risk to inflation but Greater risk is inflation stabilising above 2%

4. Inflation on 6-month basis is good but on a 12-month basis unsatisfactory.

5. Labour market yet to normalise

6. Economic growth to moderate going forward.

26/01/2024

7-month core PCE (Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation) annualised is at 2.06%.
If we get less than 0.3% Month on month figures in Jan-Feb’24, rate cut in Mar’24 can easily be a reality.
And with Dec Qtr GDP growing at 3.3%, there is enough cushion to absorb any adverse effect of high rates.
All this means Feb’24 onwards, equity markets as well as bond markets can be in an interesting period.

Fingers crossed.🤞
Parijat Yadav

20/01/2024

13/01/2024

07/01/2024

With Private final consumption growth so muted, how can consumer related stocks do any better?