14/11/2018
This Information will be about the recent drop in the price of oil.
Since the 1st of October, 2018, oil prices have dropped from $84.51 to close at $70.18 as on Friday, 9th November, 2018 - which is a drop of around 19%.
The reasons behind this fall mostly comes from the supply side of the market as follows:
1) Crude Oil Inventory
The crude oil inventories of the US have risen for seven straight weeks. This might be the result of China stopping its oil imports from the US because of the on-going trade dispute between the two countries. The loss of this export market has contributed to the growth in inventory levels in the US, resulting in a drop in prices. Saudi Arabia (largest member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries - OPEC) and Russia are producing oil at record highs. The three together are producing 33 million barrels per day, a third of the world’s output.
2) Iran’s supply
The effect of the reduction in supply of oil due to Iran’s exit from the market (due to re-imposition of sanctions on Iran by the US) has been diminished in the short term - as the US has allowed 8 countries to import oil from Iran for 180 more days. Therefore, the upside risk to the price of oil in the short term has mitigated.
Conclusion
Currently, the Brent Crude spot price has fallen below its 12-month futures contract. This rise of the futures price above the current spot price indicates that markets are concerned with the oversupply at the moment.
The fall in oil prices may be positive for India in the short term as India imports a huge portion of its oil requirements. For many corporates too, easing crude oil prices may bring some relief on the costs front. However, this is highly uncertain as much would depend on whether OPEC members decide to introduce production cuts in the future. For instance, Saudi Arabia announced on Monday, November, 2018, that they will supply 5,00,000 fewer barrels a day in December, 2018 compared to November, 2018. Therefore, it will be interesting to observe the movement of oil prices in the near future.
The above discussion highlights the sensitivity of India’s economy to changes in oil prices and its high dependence on imported oil. India imports close to 77% of its oil requirement. The Government in March, 2015, has therefore set a target of reducing India’s import dependence through various initiatives to 67% by 2022.