02/01/2019
I have never met a man who can forecast the market – Warren Buffett
2019 – Welcome to the Year of Uncertainty, Volatility and Disruptions!!!!
2019 is starting with a sense of uncertainty both locally as well as globally. Locally we are entering into election year in which markets are very volatile both pre and post elections. Much has changed in Indian Political Arena in last 12 months. BJP which seems to be invincible a year ago is in not in the same situation now particularly after the State Elections results in December 2018. India may be headed for Coalition Government again which may be headed even by BJP.
Globally on the one hand , we are facing trade war between US and China and US Vs Russia cold war emerging again on the another hand. Rising US Bond Yields are adding to FII’s withdrawals from Emerging Markets.
On the domestic front, there are many positives starting with Rupee getting stronger, lower Crude prices, Peaking out of NPA problem, controlled fiscal deficit, buoyant MF flows into the equity market particularly SIPs investments and increasing investments in the Infrastructure Sector.
2019 will be a year of disruptions in the field of Data connectivity and entertainment. With JIO’s Giga Fiber and Wi-Fi services expected to operational this year, Broadband services in India is going to see revolution in terms of speed and pricing. JIO will be further disrupting the DTH market through its high speed Broadband services. Second disruption will be in the Indian television and mobile Entertainment with the increasing pe*******on of OTT Platforms like Amazon Prime Video, Net Flix, Zee5, Hot Star. Subscriber base of OTT platforms are increasing every month.
Overall 2019 will be a year of uncertainty till General Elections, Volatility due to local and global factor. But it will be a year of Optimism also due to lower crude price, stable currency, controlled fiscal deficit and increased infrastructure spending.
