Aspire Portfolio Management Pvt. Ltd.

04/11/2024

28/08/2024

It has been becoming fairly obvious by now that such an entity exists, and what was once relegated to the sidelines of far-out conspiracy theories, has now started gaining attention in the mainstream media as well. Arnab Goswami has been calling it out, and more recently, so has Donald Trump. He used the phrase 'elite globalists' earlier, but has now started using the more popular term 'Deep State' much more openly. Although some of us are aware of its existence, in essence a white supremacist, elitist and entirely self-serving global North economic and political ecosystem, I think very few of us are aware of the complete architecture of their global ecosystem to any meaningful degree. This podcast unravels the mystery in considerable detail, and I'm glad that I took out the time to watch it in full.

With this information, one is able to get a very clear idea about why things are the way they are in geopolitics, and its considerable influence on national politics in all the countries in the world: https://youtu.be/TnXmdD81o-w?si=SV5lDfE8rDPnpAfm

Length: 1 hour 20 minutes

Beneath the surface of the world’s visible power structures lies the shadowy realm of the Deep State—a clandestine network of influential figures and covert ...

05/09/2022

22/08/2013

Post 48: Updates on the two trade ideas published previously
1. Short USD/INR: The previously estimated high probability reversal zone (61.80-62.00) has been exceeded, and it appears that the actual high-probability reversal zone would be closer to that estimated from the wave 4 contracting triangle corrective pattern apparent on the monthly chart of the USD/INR exchange rate. We had touched upon this in the relevant post detailing the trade idea for the USD/INR, and had said that it was around 64. A more precise estimate is possible due to an impulse wave formation on the smaller time frame hourly chart, and the high probability reversal zone as per current market data is 65.29 to 65.85. Indeed, the USD/INR made an all-time high well within this zone, so we should expect downward action from here on at least a smaller time frame. However, whether or not this reversal zone would be revisited or exceeded in subsequent market action on a higher (daily/weekly) time frame is impossible to tell as of now, which is why one always has stop losses to prevent unacceptable losses and/or protect profits in any open trade.
2. Long CNX Nifty 50: The spot nifty has broken down below the previous low in the forming contracting triangle probable wave 4 sideways corrective pattern, which means that, Elliott Wave wise, the contracting triangle sideways corrective pattern is no longer the pattern to be considered as relevant. Indeed, as per the fund manager the Nifty doesn't have a tractable Elliott Wave pattern presently, and so there is no high-probability trade idea that one would consider if one were to incorporate the Elliott Wave Principle as an essential component of a trading strategy. The Elliott Wave Principle cannot be applied to all markets all the time, and we need to stand aside from markets that are not tractable as per the Elliott Wave Principle. Having said that, multiple time frame momentum considerations and the reversal pattern (snap-back two day reversal) visible on the price action of spot Nifty in the last two days (today and yesterday) does indeed suggest a significant move upward from here. One could potentially consider this trade idea for a short-term trade lasting a week or so, with small capital exposure in terms of absolute rupee amount, with September expiry out-of-money call options. Disclosure: We are currently long in such a trade for ourselves and our clients for a tiny percentage of our total assets under management.

08/08/2013

Post 47: Two new trade ideas contd.
2. Short USDINR
Since the previous trade idea has received quite a few views given our current stage of operations, this is the second trade idea as promised in the previous post. The USDINR had completed a contracting triangle wave 4 pattern in a bull trend on the monthly chart, a pattern that is currently visible on the Nifty index. The sudden fall in the rupee (rise in the USDINR) was indicated in the end of the contracting triangle wave 4, with the wave 5 being a strong thrust wave that sent waves of panic through all industries in India that were net importers and spooked the stock markets for quite a long time. As per the end of wave 5 estimates per the standard calculation method entailed in the contracting triangle pattern, the highest point on the USDINR should be in the range of Rs.64 (as before, a precise value is impossible to estimate). However, the 5th wave having completed 4 waves by itself (every wave in the direction of a larger trend is in itself a 5-wave impulse wave of one lesser degree), it is possible to use data points for previous wave completions in order to estimate the end of wave 5. As per this estimate, the first high probability reversal zone for the USDINR is Rs.61.80 to Rs.62.00. Although the USDINR has made an all-time high within this region, it is likely that the region may be tested yet again before the USDINR finally begins to correct. Alternatively, it is equally likely that the high has already been made and the price action henceforth will stay below the all-time high of 61.80. It is impossible to spell out such a granular level of information as of now, as to whether the high is complete or whether the high-probability reversal zone will be tested once again before the final reversal. In either case, a short on the USDINR is now called for, and those going long for an intermediate to medium term trade are likely to have their stop losses hit. The other high-probability reversal zones for the USDINR are higher, but they are extremely wide (one rupee and 80 paise, respectively), and their excessive width suggests that they are less likely than this first high-probability reversal zone of 61.80 to 62.00. Please trade short on this according to your preferences - this is a trade idea, and we will not be supplying data points for specific trade entries, as stated earlier.

04/08/2013

Post 46: Two new trade ideas
1. Long CNX Nifty index
The Nifty is in the process of completing a wave 4 corrective pattern known as a contracting triangle. Elliott Wave theory allows us to compute a target for the next move, which is upward with a thrust-like move following this corrective pattern. This upward thrust like move will be a likely 5th and final wave of the current bull trend, to complete wave 3 in a much larger bull trend that started in October 2008 (possible one degree smaller wave 5 within wave 3 of the larger higher degree bull trend). Provided that the Nifty index does not break below the previous swing low on the weekly chart, our assessment for the completion of the upward thrust wave is around 6700 for spot Nifty (an exact value is impossible to estimate). Although the initial movement is likely to be thrust-like in this final upward wave, it may take several months before this target price zone is achieved.

The next trade idea is for the USDINR, and will be updated provided the current post has a sufficient number of viewers. We will not be posting specific trades henceforth, but only trade ideas, because we believe that it is risky for people to trade on the basis of borrowed data points. Even if the advice is correct, it is difficult to make consistent profits in trading without obtaining sufficient mastery over the psychology of being in a business that is essentially mercenary in nature. Besides, we deal with real money in our trade entries, so posting advice becomes less of a priority in such cases. If this may indeed be a credible medium to establish credibility, the trade ideas should suffice for the purpose.

14/07/2013

A wave pattern analysis of the Nifty index based on Elliott Wave theory since the time when electronic trading started in India (1994) seems to suggest that we are now headed for a long term bull market, and this is not based on current price action alone. The October 2008 low marked the beginning of a new long term bull trend, and a 2008-like correction is likely (if at all) only when the broadest trend pattern comes to a conclusion, which is at least a few years away. This may not be the appropriate forum to discuss the analysis in detail, since it may not be interesting to most readers. Those interested in knowing about the nuts and bolts that have gone into this assessment may please send us a private message with their email address, and a document detailing the entire analysis along with price charts will be sent to them - we are already in the process of preparing this document for our record, and sending it to interested folks will not place even the slightest additional burden on us. Needless to say, we will neither sell nor disclose the email addresses thus received to any third parties, including other people who send us a request for this doc - our strategic framework is presently quite profitable even with the fund manager's personal capital, so we don't feel the need to earn silly amounts of pocket change in exchange for our souls.