Antarix investment

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Are Stock Prices Predictable? It is doubtful. The new year saw the Nifty 50 scaling a new peak as it closed above the ps...
01/01/2021

Are Stock Prices Predictable? It is doubtful.

The new year saw the Nifty 50 scaling a new peak as it closed above the psychologically important 14,000 mark on January 1, 2021 led by select auto, FMCG, IT and pharma stocks.

There is no such thing as a final answer to security values. A dozen experts will arrive at 12 different conclusions. It often happens that a few moments later each would alter his verdict. if given a chance to reconsider because of a changed condition. Market values are fixed only in part by balance sheets and income statements; by greed, ambition, acts of God, invention, financial stress and strain , weather, discovery , fashion and numberless other causes impossible to be listed without omission.

Hopes, fears, greed , ambition, acts of God - it would be hard to put it more succinctly. It is very hard to program these into anything as unforgiving as an IBM 360
--- Antarix Investment, for Capital Ideas
--- John Hopkins University, USA

How do I beat the market?  Suppose you have  $100,000  to invest in equities.  Should you take the advice of a financial...
25/12/2020

How do I beat the market?

Suppose you have $100,000 to invest in equities. Should you take the advice of a financial analyst or trust your own judgement in picking the shares, Can we really beat the market by listening to the advice of an economist? Some economists who have implicit faith in the efficiency of markets would humbly proclaim you're wasting your time, as beating the market is a fool's game. However , there are plenty of professionals who are much less modest and advise that just a few insights can give a competitive advantage.

The basic idea of the theory efficient market hypothesis developed in the 1960s by the American economist and Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama ( b.1939) , with the name coined by Harry Roberts in 1967 is that in financial markets with many buyers and sellers, the price of a security accurately reflects a fair market prices given the information available.

Economists Amos Tversky and Richard Thaler argue that a feature of private investment is myopic loss aversion , which means we have greater sensitive to losses than to gains.

Economic theory :

The efficient market hypothesis suggests share prices will be correctly valued, therefore picking a winner is only down to good luck.

Making a decision :

If you agree with the efficient market hypothesis of Fama , you would be better of buying low-cost indexing funds . However, if you agree with Thaler that emotion drives buying and selling, you may be able to avoid market spirit and try to pick seemingly high-risk stocks with the potential to outperform the markets.
--- Antarix investment, for picking a winning share
--- University of Virginia ( UVA) , Virginia, USA

How do I survive inflation? India's retail inflation in November 20 is 6.93% . This is above RBI'S upper limit of 6%Infl...
18/12/2020

How do I survive inflation?

India's retail inflation in November 20 is 6.93% . This is above RBI'S upper limit of 6%

Inflation is a continued increase in the price level and a rise in the cost of living. For individuals it means rising prices and a likely decline in the value of savings. 0 Economists from David Recardo to Milton Friedman agree that inflation imposes a severe cost on both individuals and economies - but what advice, if any, can economists give for dealing with the reality of inflation?

" The return to gold does not depend on the fulfilment of some material condition. It is an ideological problem. It presupposes only one thing: the abandonment of the illusion that increasing the quantity of money creates prosperity " ---- Economist Ludwig von Mises

American economist Martin Felsted (b. 1939) investigated the effects of inflation in the US and found that it discouraged saving but encouraged a9ctivity in the housing market.

Economic theory :

Inflation reduces the real value of money. Therefore, savers will have to ensure they maintain a positive real interest rate or find an alternative form of investment such as gold or equities.

Making a decision :

In a period of inflation, von Mises may advise holding gold as an inflation - proof investment. However, other economists such as Feldstein suggest you will get a better return from purchasing equities or real estate.

------ Antrarix investment, for investment in equities
---😣😣
__^ George Mason University, Arlington University, Virginia, USA

Is it worth talking a promotion if it involves working long hours? Promotion typically brings higher pay,  greater respo...
04/12/2020

Is it worth talking a promotion if it involves working long hours?

Promotion typically brings higher pay, greater responsibility and more challenging ( and possibly interesting ) work. But is the extra income worth the increased pressure? Should we aspire to climb the greasy pole of promotion, or is satisfaction to be found in acceptance of our current job?

"The cream rises to the top until it sours "
Economists Laurence J Peter and Raymond Hull

Economic theory :

The substitution effect suggests work is more attractive if higher paid. However, the income effect suggests that with higher pay we would like to take more leisure.

Making a decision :

Promotion can give more responsibility and more satisfaction. Whatever economists may say about diminishing returns, extra money can always come in handy. If we are attracted by higher pay, we will take the promotion as political economist Benjamin Fried man ( b.1944) might predict. However, taking on more more hours and responsibility has definitely an opportunity cost of less non-work time . If we feel that promotion only increase our stress, we may take the work of economists Bruno Frey and Tibor Scitovsky to heart and prioritize our free time.
--- Antarix Investment, for financial decision making
--- George Mason University, Washington D C, USA

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