08/07/2026
The obvious first thing you do when you get an ESOP offer? See how much it would be worth one day.
Everyone wants the Zepto or Swiggy outcome, so you end up expecting the same.
You think...
The company is growing fast.
The founder sounds ambitious.
The investors look solid.
This can become a unicorn someday.
So you open a calculator and run the best-case scenario.
"If this becomes a unicorn, my ESOPs will be worth so much money!"
Suddenly, the grant looks exciting. Maybe even life-changing.
But that's not how stock options should be evaluated.
If your ESOPs only look good in the best case, you're being sold the dream.
The first calculation should not be the unicorn outcome. It should be the boring outcome, the low-ball acquisition, the small buyback.
That's where you find out if your ESOPs are actually meaningful.
Say you own 0.25% of the company today. It's early, it will raise more capital, and your ownership will dilute.
After a few rounds, that 0.25% may become 0.12%. Still not bad.
Now run the numbers again, realistic this time.
At a ₹500 crore exit, 0.12% is ₹60 lakhs.
At a ₹1,000 crore exit, it's ₹1.2 crore.
At a ₹5,000 crore exit, it's ₹6 crore.
Most people jump straight to the ₹6 crore number, the one that makes the risk feel worth it.
But the ₹60 lakh number is the one you should spend more time with.
There's more math left. Consider strike price, taxes, and the risk of no liquidity window when you need the money.
The real value of ESOPs is what survives after dilution, tax, exercise cost, time, and liquidity risk. Much smaller than ₹60 lakh.
This is why "how many options am I getting?" is a weak question. Better questions:
What percentage do I own?
What will this look like after the next few rounds?
What happens in a ₹500 crore exit? A ₹1,000 crore exit?
What will I keep after taxes and exercise cost?
When can I actually sell?
A good ESOP grant should not need a unicorn outcome to make sense. It should feel fair in the base case, meaningful enough to justify the risk of joining early.
Run the boring exit case first. The dream case can come later.
Think equity. Think incentiv.