Nith Investments

17/01/2026

Markets don’t have amnesia. As we begin 2026, we can look back at recent episodes of market turmoil in 2024 and 2025 as solid reminders that volatility is not random noise, but comes in regimes. Stressed days tend to follow stressed days, and calm periods tend to follow calm periods. This is an observable reality with profound implications for risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio construction.

For nearly 40 years, the GARCH family of models has been the industry standard for capturing this type of heteroskedasticity.

In this paper, we walk through the GARCH framework and show how its parameters encode market 'memory'.

Whether you're a quant, risk manager, portfolio manager, or simply curious about what drives market volatility patterns, this paper demystifies the model that powers many systems in finance.

You can download the paper here: https://www.nithinvestments.com/insight

11/08/2025

Even in the age of AI, the bedrock of fundamental analysis is still dependable financial statements, free of improprieties. These statements remain important inputs into financial modeling.

In this paper, we discuss conceptual models in fraud prevention that a recent high-profile accounting restatement has highlighted. Understanding these models can help managers design operations that foster reliable statements.

For this and other insights, please subscribe to our mailing list and download this paper here: https://www.nithinvestments.com/insight

03/01/2024

As we kick off the new year, we are pleased to share a brief primer on linear regression, the statistical model underpinning our equity model. With over 20 years of investment analytics experience, we have found that linear regression, specifically multiple linear regression, is the most practical and transparent model for understanding stock returns.

This primer is freely shareable and can be downloaded on our website: https://www.nithinvestments.com/insight

For more insight and clarity in the market, please feel free to reach out to us.

Thank you.

09/01/2023

Hello investors,

As we start a new year, we are happy to provide you with our outlook for the US economy in 2023. In a succinct point-by-point style, we touch on inflation and policy responses as well as some thoughts on positioning among the major asset classes.

We hope you find this useful.

This report has been sent out to members of our mailing list and is freely shareable. It can also be downloaded on our website: https://www.nithinvestments.com/insight

Thank you.

02/11/2022

Hello investors,

Our October month-end report has been uploaded to our website. You can subscribe to our mailing list here: https://www.nithinvestments.com/insight

While many investors maintain their focus on the FOMC, mid-October marked the kick-off of earnings season for many bellwether stocks. Despite some major earnings misses in the technology sector, optimism returned as some sectors offered better-than-expected earnings. The major gauges consequently returned gains for the month. However, the S&P 500 has not returned to its three-month high-water mark.

For more insight and clarity in the market, please feel free to reach out to us.

Thank you.

01/10/2022

Hello investors,

Our September month-end report has been uploaded to our website and you can subscribe to our mailing to receive a report in your inbox every month: www.nithinvestments.com/insight

September marked the end of a turbulent three-month period in the market, highlighted by the perceived hawkish remarks by Jerome Powell. The market reaction has mostly translated into negative returns and expectations for the short term have not coalesced into any conclusive consensus. Most expect heightened volatility to maintain and historical correlations to alter. Inflation and interest rates will remain in focus as the retail sector heads into a busy holiday season.

For more insight and clarity in the market, please feel free to reach out to us.

Thank you.

A capital markets company deploying leading technologies and quantitative techniques to asset management strategies

01/09/2022

Subscribe and download for free: www.nithinvestments.com/insight

Hi fellow investors,

As we finish our first trading day of a new month, we are happy to introduce a free and shareable monthly equity market report that may prove useful to both institutional and retail investors. You can subscribe and download the report on our website here: www.nithinvestments.com/insight

With the report, you will: cover US & Canadian equity indices follow the major indices against volatility track technical Bollinger Bands compare information ratios for equity factors and market sectors see yield curve shifts over time

Subscribe and you will receive the report in your inbox every month.

We'd like to thank everyone who provided their feedback on what they would like to see in a market summary.

We’re here to help. Contact us for more insight and clarity in the market.

Speak soon.

09/08/2021

Pairs Trading: A Statistical Arbitrage Trading Strategy

(Link in main article: My Pairs Trading App on Streamlit) Pairs trading is a statistical arbitrage trading strategy developed by a quant team at Morgan Stanley in the 1980s. The basic idea in pairs trading is: Identify two stocks that move similarly to each other Find where their spread diverges fro

08/08/2021

Using Supervised Machine Learning Models to Predict Equity Price Movements

A common assumption in finance is that the capital markets are efficient or are at least semi-strong efficient, meaning that all public information that is available is already embedded in an asset’s current market price. Under this theory, investors cannot achieve superior returns in the market b...