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22/04/2023
12/02/2019

JUST VIEW : NIFTY DOWN - 88, SENSEX DOWN - 244, BANK NIFTY DOWN - 222 ONCE POSSIBLE TODAY.

02/05/2016

Forwarded as recd
Market Talks: Expecting the Nifty to crack to 7500 in May. Feel second fortnight or last week of May might offer a better buying opportunity.

Few simple observations makes the mind very clear.

1) The 225x HNI oversubscription in Thyrocare IPO reflects the madness and greed of people. Whenever such madness happens in IPOs the markets peaks out for the interim.

2) There is sheer madness happening in China in the commodity space. Last week the trading volume over there in the commodity exchange was more than the entire turnover of Shanghai and Shienzen exchange put together. Also last week's trading turnover of Cotton in China was so much that every person on the globe can make a denim jeans out of it and wear.

3) Sensex & Nifty one year forward PE has touched 17x. MSCI India premium over MSCI EM has gone to ~50%. Expect some form of correction and consolidation till actual monsoon turns out to be good and a new range of 8000-9000 develops after that sometime Aug-Sep onwards.

4) Yesterday had a meeting with the family office of a large NRI. From the entire KIE stock universe I could not identify more than 7 large cap stocks which had value and decent upside. This is one of the biggest indicator for me. When Nifty went below 7000, there were >25 large cap stocks that turned out as potential winners.

5) Mid Cap fw.PE is now far higher than the Nifty fw.PE. This is also not sustainable and shows signs of over valuation or priced to perfection.

6) The bloomberg consensus estimate of S&P 500 (US) for CY16 works to 13%. With Q1 GDP growth of 0.5% and likely Q1 earnings growth being (-) 5-7%, feel full year estimates will come down to single digit. When global PMIs are just around the 50 mark and global activity remains dull both US and Europe will see earnings disappointment. Both US and European markets are trading 20-25% above their 10 year average valuations.

7) Just met a friend in my building. He has been importing electronic items since many years from China. He just came back after attending a 4 day exhibition from China. He was completely let down by the poor response and participation (first time in many years). He says activity has slowed down drastically.

These small indicators with ear on the ground suggests that markets have run slightly ahead of fundamentals. It has been more of a liquidity driven rally with good prospects of monsoon. Most EMs have rallied by 20% since the Dollar Index has come off from 100 to 94 and there has been a decent pull back in commodities and crude.
As the last two reverse without any genuine demand recovery, the rally in EM could fizzle out.

The party will last till the time commodities and crude rally. I see risk in both of these items.

Lets see if the old saying: "Sell in May & go away" turns true this time also.

13/04/2016

👉 BUY IN DELIVERY JK TYRES ONLY ABOVE 85 WITH SL BELOW 78ON CLOSING TGTS 100-115
👉 POSITIONAL BUY ONGC IN FUTURES AT 214.75 SL 209.75 ON CLOSING TGTS 220.75-224.75-228.75

21/02/2016

FORWARDED AS RECEIVED

💥 TOWER TALK 💥

✅ Bharat Forge’s Q3FY16 net profit has declined 12%. It is advisable to keep away from this stock for a while.

✅ Buy VST Tillers Tractors on account of its continuous growth prospects. With adequate monsoon this year, its
bottom-line may zoom.

✅ Marksans Pharma looks good for investment below Rs.40 level. Its share price has crashed on unrelated issues

✅ Bleeding continues in SAIL. With operating margins at negative 16%, one must exit this scrip immediately.

✅ Cera Sanitaryware is an excellent buy considering the huge demand for affordable housing.

✅ In spite of dumping by Chinese manufacturers, J K Tyre Industries continues to report good results. Invest for a period of two years for good returns.

✅ Cipla has acquired two US-based companies with combined revenues of $230 million. A positive for the Company.

✅ Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories is planning a buyback at attractive rates. Its long-term prospects are also good. Buy for one year.

✅ ARSS Infrastructure Projects has bagged huge orders. The ensuing budget may also provide some impetus to the Company. Buy for decent gains in the long-term.

✅ Surya Roshni is a good buy at current levels as it may shine better in the current year. Existing business and repeat orders are likely to boost its bottom-line.

✅ ABG Shipyard expects a stake sale over the
next few months. The strategic partner may
change the face of this Company. Good news
for long term investors.

✅ Investors with a risk-appetite can accumulate
shares of Oil Marketing Companies like IOC,
HPCL and BPCL which are likely to post improved results in the next few quarters.

✅ Hyderabad-based Software Company Saven Technologies is trading at attractive valuations of 6 P/E multiple and 10% dividend yield. Buy for 100% returns in one year.

✅ Uflex is all set to garner an EPS of Rs.44 in FY16 and Rs.50 in FY17. A conservative P/E multiple of just 5 will take its
share price to Rs.220 in the medium term and Rs.250 thereafter.

✅ Some funds are buying shares of KPIT Technologies as it is expected to notch an EPS of Rs.14 in FY16. A reasonable P/E multiple of just 12.5 will take its share price to Rs.175.

✅ Informed sources expect Aurionpro Solutions to notch an EPS of Rs.30 in FY16. The share is poised to touch the Rs.200 mark against its consolidated book value of Rs.245.

✅ An Ahmedabad-based analyst recommends to buy ASM Technologies, AMD Industries, Caprihans India, Elegant Marbles & Grani Industries, Panama Petrochem, Sakuma Exports and Tanla Solutions.

09/02/2016

Results to be declared on 09 Feb 2016.



· Dr. Reddy'S Laboratories

· Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd

· Britannia Industries Ltd

· Apollo Tyres Ltd

· CESC Ltd

· Hindalco Industries Ltd

· Steel Authority Of India

· Allahabad Bank

· Aurobindo Pharma Ltd

· Bharat Forge Ltd

· Gail (India) Ltd

· Petronet Lng Limited

· Power Fin Corp Ltd.

· Punjab National Bank

03/02/2016

HOS : Nifty index rebalancing
Announcement may be in second weekend of Feb
Wef from April2016.
Expected inclusion in nifty
1. Ibullhsgfin
2.Auropharma
3.eicher mot
4.infratel

Expected exclusion
1.Pnb
2.cairn
3.Vedanta
4.hindalco

NewsFirst : Upcoming Assembly Elections in India

1 - Assam : April 2016

2 - Kerala : April 2016

3 - Tamil Nadu : May 2016

4 - West Bengal : Mayb 2016

Plus Feb 29 budget .
Plan your trade keeping in view the above events.

03/02/2016

Beware of any analysis of what desk from.
A recent analysis found analyst blames slow global growth main reason of China slow down shown on survey in China.
Where in other parts of the world same analyst blame China for global turmoil.

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