20/02/2024
What is REALLY happening in the housing market?
Yes, graphs can be misleading. Yes, the Israeli Bureau of Statistics freely dispenses information void of context. The graph below depicts a steep increase in housing prices after ten months of dips. What should we expect to see in the housing market moving forwards? Here are a couple of key takeaways from the recently published statistics.
1. Statistics are reported with a delay. The most likely possibility is that the numbers we are seeing were relevant months ago, but hardly reflective of today's reality.
2. The data varies by city. Some localities are experiencing consistent exponential growth, while others a drop in prices.
3. The interest rate hikes appear to have done their thing. Real estate purchases have slowed down. I've been told multiple times by potential clients that they'd like to wait for rates to drop in order to purchase their home, and their opinion seems to be shared by many.
4. In the full report released by IBS, Israeli real estate has experienced only one such drop in recent history, yet there was no panic, no bubble that burst, no urge to pull out. Israelis held on to their properties, and prices continued to surge throughout the years to come.
WHERE ARE WE HEADED?
Ultimately, the principles of supply and demand will continue to dictate the prices we pay. So long as there is not mass construction in desirable areas, or establishment of necessary infrastructure in more peripheral ones, prices will continue to rise. This is especially true in light of the fact that so many are waiting for interest rates to drop in accordance with BoI forecast. It would appear that in roughly two years or whenever interest drops, there will be a mass migration to the housing market, resulting in a steep hike in property value. When this happens, those who chose to wait will enjoy the favorable rates, but will ultimately lose out due to the increase in housing prices.
Now is the time to buy real estate.