27/08/2026
The truth about win rate in futures trading. And why chasing it might be exactly what’s costing you money.
Trader A: 70% win rate. Average win $80. Average loss $200. Expectancy: (0.70 × $80) + (0.30 × -$200) = $56 - $60 = -$4 per trade. Losing money.
Trader B: 45% win rate. Average win $300. Average loss $120. Expectancy: (0.45 × $300) + (0.55 × -$120) = $135 - $66 = +$69 per trade. Building wealth.
Win rate without expectancy is a vanity metric.
Three things that destroy expectancy despite a high win rate:
1. Moving stops wider on losers — hoping they’ll come back. Turns -$100 losses into -$300 losses.
2. Taking profits too early on winners — scared to give them back. Turns +$240 wins into +$80 wins.
3. Oversizing on losers to recover faster. Amplifies damage exactly when the account is most vulnerable.
The question isn’t “how often am I right?” It’s “what do I make on average every time I trade?”
Tradercockpit shows you both — win rate AND expectancy, broken down by setup, session and instrument. Know both. Trade accordingly. Stop chasing the wrong metric.
Start your 7-day free trial at tradecockpit.trade