PKRI_Official

PKRI_Official Credit Rating Agency (Perusahaan Pemeringkat Efek)

GoI has decided to extend the PPN DTP program for the housing sector until Dec27 from the previous deadline of end-Dec2...
20/10/2025

GoI has decided to extend the PPN DTP program for the housing sector until Dec27 from the previous deadline of end-Dec26, on 14Oct25; GoI plans to raise its ownership in PT Freeport Indonesia to 63% from 51% to boost fiscal income and regional growth; BPJS Kesehatan’s claim ratio exceeded 100% as of Sep25, prompting policy reviews as current funds are only sufficient to cover claims until mid-2026; The Indonesia–EU CEPA offers zero-tariff access for key commodities from Indonesia (including coffee), which could potentially uplift coffee export to promising EU coffee market with value is estimated to reach USD47 bn in 2025 and projected to grow to USD67 bn in 2033; Indonesia’s fiscal performance is deemed resilience in Sep25, as revenue grew to IDR2,957.3 tn (+8.6% yoy) and deficit has been well managed at 1.56% of GDP.

Read more: https://pemeringkatkreditindonesia.com/laporan-sektoral/files/6f4e06c9c89700ac0ececcba3644539c7482c550

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ESDM Ministry asked oil and gas contractors to invest in domestic LPG refineries to reduce import dependency, which take...
13/10/2025

ESDM Ministry asked oil and gas contractors to invest in domestic LPG refineries to reduce import dependency, which takes up the notable portion of APBN around IDR63.5 tn annually; GoI, through ESDM Ministry, plans to implement the usage of a 10% ethanol blend (E10) in gasoline in the next 3 years for reducing fuel imports and carbon emissions; Domestic bioethanol production capacity remains limited at 365,000 kiloliters (kl) per year from 13 producers as of 2024, according to Aprobi; According to the Minister of Investment and Down-streaming, Indonesia will require ±IDR13,000 tn in investments during 2025-2029 to achieve 8% yoy economic growth target; GoI’s outstanding debt reached IDR9,138.05 tn as of Jun25 (40% of GDP) according to M*F.

Read more: https://pemeringkatkreditindonesia.com/laporan-sektoral/files/0dbb445610ee8825f5f9169cc8b397c87adbd0d6

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OJK is proposing to increase the minimum free float requirement for listed companies from 7.5% to 10% in Sep25, which ai...
29/09/2025

OJK is proposing to increase the minimum free float requirement for listed companies from 7.5% to 10% in Sep25, which aims to boost market liquidity and attracting global investors; Indonesia's new and renewable energy mix has reached 16.1%, which is above the 2025 target of 15.9% set in the RUPTL, as per ESDM Ministry’s data as of Sep25; M*F has issued regulation No.65/2025 to support GoI’s 3 million houses program - providing mortgage interest subsidies of up to 10% for loans ranging from IDR10-500 mn with a maximum tenor of 5 years; GoI and EU have signed IEU-CEPA agreement on 23Sep25 that would unlock vast opportunities for economic cooperation between both parties; Indonesia House of Representatives (DPR) has approved the 2026 APBN with a projected fiscal deficit of 2.68% of GDP and an economic growth target of 5.4%.

Read more: https://pemeringkatkreditindonesia.com/laporan-sektoral/files/f1fa2b381ddd6a54c10186ef31719ab3e1a90c90

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Ministry of Transportation has allocated budget amounting IDR28.48 tn in 2026 to transportation sector development (incl...
22/09/2025

Ministry of Transportation has allocated budget amounting IDR28.48 tn in 2026 to transportation sector development (including: 107 new ships, 266 pioneer air routes, 278 port improvements, and 534 railway facilities, subsidy for passenger and cargo services for remote areas); Indonesia’s solar industry faces rising pressure due to influx of low-cost Chinese panels with total value of USD57.3mn in 1H25 (+24.5% yoy), prompting calls for stricter local content enforcement; MIND ID’s plans to raise its stake in Freeport to 63.23% would give the state more control over cash flows, despite concern on governance risk; The undisbursed loans in banking sector has increased to IDR2,363.62 tn in Jul25 (+9.51% yoy), which reflects slowdown in loan drawdown amidst challenging economy condition; BI has decided to cut BI rate by 25 bps to 4.75% on 17Sep25 to support economy growth while keeping inflation and IDR stability.

Read more: https://pemeringkatkreditindonesia.com/laporan-sektoral/files/997949825e235671d44d6abb70bced015cf6d325

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The outstanding financing for EVs remain low at only around 1.6% of total automotive multifinance loans of IDR347 tn as ...
15/09/2025

The outstanding financing for EVs remain low at only around 1.6% of total automotive multifinance loans of IDR347 tn as of Jul25 as per OJK’s data, which reflects challenging EV pe*******on in Indonesia; According to APJII’s survey, Shopee and TikTok Shop dominate Indonesia’s e-commerce market with a combined market share of 80.6% share as of Aug25, which puts pressure to domestic players’ (Tokopedia and Blibli) business growth; Total loan to MSME segment only slightly grew by +1.6% yoy as of Jul25, which was far below overall banking loan growth of +6.6% yoy as per BI’s data; Indonesia’s forex reserves fell to USD150.7 bn (-4% yoy) in Aug25 (the lowest level in the past nine months), due to external debt repayments and stabilization measures to support IDR; M*F’s IDR200 tn liquidity injection into SOE banks is expected to accelerate loan growth to help the government’s economy growth target.

Read more: https://pemeringkatkreditindonesia.com/laporan-sektoral/files/faa82cde41a63cf6147be781f0aba55895c24f15

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M*F has officially allocated IDR16 tn from the 2025 budget surplus (SAL) to inject funds into 4 appointed SOE banks to c...
09/09/2025

M*F has officially allocated IDR16 tn from the 2025 budget surplus (SAL) to inject funds into 4 appointed SOE banks to channel loans to the subdistrict cooperatives (Koperasi Desa Merah Putih) program; ESDM Ministry has set the 2026 subsidized 3kg Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) quota at 8.31 mn tons in 2026 RAPBN and would implement stricter distribution through Single LPG Price program; As of 3Sep25, M*F and BI have agreed to implement a burden-sharing scheme for government securities (SBN) to support GoI’s priority programs (such as: public housing and subdistrict cooperatives); According to BKPM, the investment realization reached IDR942.9 tn in 1H25 (+13.6% yoy), with a relatively balance composition between domestic investment (54.1%) and foreign direct investment (45.9%); GoI remains optimistic that 5.0%-5.2% economy growth could be achieved in 2025, despite of recent socio-political tensions.

Read more: https://pemeringkatkreditindonesia.com/laporan-sektoral/files/5afb9a52139d04ca31e0535d763a9f7d2e15329e

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GoI is preparing a digital system for stricter subsidized 3kg LPG distribution in 2026 for households and microbusinesse...
01/09/2025

GoI is preparing a digital system for stricter subsidized 3kg LPG distribution in 2026 for households and microbusinesses (the total budget allocation is around IDR80.3 tn as per 2026 RAPBN); Ministry of Public Works has been allocated IDR118.5 tn in the 2026 RAPBN to support GoI’s priority infrastructure program; BPI Danantara plans to issue Patriot Bonds IDR50 tn to finance waste-to-energy management projects; GoI and DPR have approved the implementation of an excise tax on sweetened packaged beverages (MBDK) starting in 2026 - aims to achieve 2026 customs and excise revenue target of IDR334.3 tn (+7.7% yoy); A notable debt interest and principal payment totaling around IDR1,299.4 tn as 2026 state budget plan, would potentially hinder GoI’s 5.4% economy growth target in 2026.

Read more: https://pemeringkatkreditindonesia.com/laporan-sektoral/files/af95c82b0035f97274d500a2614cb89ea8240b67

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GoI put an allocation IDR105.4 tn for the subsidy of certain fuel types and 3-kg LPG cylinders in the 2026 state budget ...
25/08/2025

GoI put an allocation IDR105.4 tn for the subsidy of certain fuel types and 3-kg LPG cylinders in the 2026 state budget draft, which accounted for around 50% of the total energy subsidy budget of IDR 210.1 tn; GoI has reintroduced plan to impose an excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in the 2026 State Budget (RAPBN) after previously postponing the implementation this year; GoI targets debt financing of IDR781.9 tn (+9.3% yoy) as stipulated in 2026 Draft State Budget (RAPBN 2026 - mainly from government bond (SBN) issuance; BI has decided to cut the BI rate by 25 bps to 5.0% on 20Aug25, marking the fourth BI rate cut this year, with a total reduction of 100 bps; BI projects that the Fed will cut interest rates two more times in 2H25, bringing the Fed rate down to 3.75%-4% from the current 4.25%-4.5%.

Read more: https://pemeringkatkreditindonesia.com/laporan-sektoral/files/ea9e063fdff7f27dfe093ddcfafe36887f5d0efa

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Bank Indonesia has reduced its benchmark rate from 6.25% in September 2024 to 5% by August 2025, aiming to stimulate inv...
20/08/2025

Bank Indonesia has reduced its benchmark rate from 6.25% in September 2024 to 5% by August 2025, aiming to stimulate investment, spur loan growth, and support the economy amid low inflation and mounting external pressures. Yet, despite this accommodative stance, loan growth has stalled. As of 1H 2025, annual loan growth moderated to 7.77% year-on-year, down from 10.92% in 2024, marking the slowest pace since 2018. PKRI attributes the deceleration to both demand-and supply-side constraints: subdued borrower confidence amid weaker purchasing power, and diminished lending capacity among primary lenders facing elevated LDRs.

Only a handful of Indonesian non-SOE banks have the balance sheet strength and liquidity to support meaningful double-digit loan growth. But their willingness to do so appears limited under current economic conditions. Therefore, while BI’s rate easing and improving external conditions may act as a catalyst, the persistence of high LDR and associated constraints mean that meaningful acceleration in loan growth will likely be modest even in a lower interest rate environment, with slow improvements anticipated over the coming quarters.

Read more: https://pemeringkatkreditindonesia.com/laporan-sektoral/files/503f087f9418a445a0819f746cde7faa5fff1a6a

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PKRI observes a growing tendency of SOEs to play a more pronounced role in fulfilling the Government of Indonesia’s spec...
20/08/2025

PKRI observes a growing tendency of SOEs to play a more pronounced role in fulfilling the Government of Indonesia’s special socio-economic missions. One of key program is the formation of the subdistrict-cooperatives (KDMPs) scheme launched in July 2025 under which four state-owned banks (BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, and BRIS are tasked with providing loans to cooperatives at a determined interest rate. PKRI underscores that there are three key credit implications for participating SOE banks in the KDMP lending program: profitability - margin compression, asset quality - elevated credit & operational risk, and liquidity - funding & deployment tensions.

The KDMP program poses distinct challenges for SOE banks given that subdistrict cooperations are fundamentally different from conventional banking clients - requiring tailored underwriting and operational oversight. While government-provided liquidity injections and fiscal backstops can help cushion pressure on profitability, asset quality, and funding, their effectiveness depends critically on timely and reliable ex*****on. In the short term, PKRI expects minimal disruption to the standalone credit profiles of the four participating banks, given the program’s gradual roll-out. Ultimately, enduring success hinges on disciplined governance, vigilant underwriting, and efficient deployment mechanisms.

Read more: https://pemeringkatkreditindonesia.com/laporan-sektoral/files/86992e3d7f94db53f3038acf355b8586df3e698a

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GoI’s B40 program is expected to generate foreign exchange savings of IDR147.5 tn in 2025, which was higher than IDR122....
19/08/2025

GoI’s B40 program is expected to generate foreign exchange savings of IDR147.5 tn in 2025, which was higher than IDR122.98 tn achieved under B35 program in 2024; GoI’s decision to cut the quota of subsidized gas (HGBT) for industry to 48% of total volume of gas purchase contract from 60% previously, might affect many industries that could trigger more layoff cases; The undisbursed loan facilities in the banking sector stood at IDR2,304.26 tn as at end-Jun25, with the largest portion (62.5%) held by non-UMKM corporate borrowers according to OJK; Indonesia’s export value increased to USD135.4 bn in 1H25 (+ 7.7% yoy) and is expected to grow at faster pace in the future following the completion of several trade partnership agreements (EU (IEU-CEPA), South America and Africa).

Read more: https://pemeringkatkreditindonesia.com/laporan-sektoral/files/efe71fd838085d1a1724444eabb988d9796aec18

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Indonesia’s CPO and its derivative exports value increased by 24.81% yoy to USD11.43 bn in 1H25 which was supported by h...
11/08/2025

Indonesia’s CPO and its derivative exports value increased by 24.81% yoy to USD11.43 bn in 1H25 which was supported by higher volumes and improved price according to BPS; GoI plans to build solar power plants (PLTS) with a total capacity of 100 MW through the establishment 80,000 Merah Putih cooperatives; NPL ratio of medium enterprises (MSME) segment gradually increased to 4.49% (Apr25: 4.34%; Dec24: 3.76%) according to BI’s data due to weakening revenue of MSME players amidst economy pressure; Indonesia’s manufacturing sector grew by 5.68% yoy in Jul25, which was supported by investment growth, improved PMI at 49.2 (Jun25: 46.9), and increased export orders; Indonesia economy grew by 5.1% yoy in 2Q25 (vs 4.87% in 1Q25), which was supported by GoI’s various stimulus packages.

Read more: https://pemeringkatkreditindonesia.com/laporan-sektoral/files/a59a9a993978994cef144174b4d0c134ae51aad4

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