Mandiri Sekuritas Saham, Menara Mandiri 1 Lt. 24-25 Jalan Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54-55 Jakarta, Jakarta (2026)

04/07/2024

KKR, Francisco Partners vying to acquire Instructure, sources say

Private equity firms KKR and Francisco Partners are competing to acquire Instructure, a U.S. education software provider with a market value of $3.4 billion, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday.

The two buyout firms are through to the final round of bidding for Instructure and are preparing to submit binding offers next week, the sources said.

There is no certainty that private equity firm Thoma Bravo, which holds an 83% stake in Instructure, will agree to sell it, and other bidders could emerge, the sources added, requesting anonymity because the matter is confidential.

Instructure, KKR, Francisco Partners and Thoma Bravo declined to comment.

Based in Salt Lake City, Instructure provides software to schools, colleges and universities. It has over 8,000 customers in more than 100 countries.

The company's flagship learning management system is called Canvas and competes with programs such as Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Classroom, Blackboard Learn and Schoology.

Thoma Bravo took Instructure private in 2020 for $2 billion before returning it to the stock market a year later through an initial public offering (IPO).

Instructure's shares are hovering just a little over their $20 IPO price three years later, as a boom the company enjoyed from spending on remote learning during the COVID-19 pandemic fizzled when competition from rivals intensified.

Earlier this year, Instructure completed the acquisition of academic credential management platform Parchment for $835 million. Reuters reported in May that Thoma Bravo had put Instructure up for sale.

PowerSchool Holdings, another educational software vendor, agreed to be acquired by private equity firm Bain Capital last month for $5.6 billion.

The deal price was equivalent to 7 times PowerSchool's projected 12-month revenue, within the 7-11 times multiple range across recent deals in the sector, according to Jefferies analysts. Instructure currently trades at 6 times 12-month projected revenue, according to LSEG data.

03/07/2024

Apple poised to get OpenAI board observer role as part of AI pact, Bloomberg News reports

Apple will get an observer role on OpenAI's board as part of a landmark AI agreement announced last month, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday.

Phil Schiller, the head of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)'s App Store and its former marketing chief, was chosen for the position, the report said.

The board arrangement will take effect later this year, and Schiller has not yet attended any meetings, according to the report.

An observer can attend board meetings without being able to vote or exercise other powers that directors usually have, according to the report. Observers, however, do gain insights into how decisions are made at the company.

Apple and OpenAI declined to comment when contacted by Reuters.

The move comes on the heels of Apple's announcement in June, bringing OpenAI's chatbot ChatGPT to its devices and integrating its new "Apple Intelligence" technology across its suite of apps, including virtual assistant Siri.

OpenAI said in March it was appointing new directors to the board, including company CEO Sam Altman, Sue Desmond-Hellmann, a former CEO of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Nicole Seligman, a former president of Sony (NYSE:SONY) Entertainment, and Fidji Simo, CEO of Instacart (NASDAQ:CART).

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02/07/2024

US stock futures edge lower with Powell in focus

U.S. stock index futures fell slightly in evening deals on Monday, with focus turning squarely to an upcoming address by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for more cues on interest rates.

Anticipation of key payrolls data and the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting also kept sentiment frail, while trading volumes remained slim before the July 4 holiday.

Still, Wall Street marked a positive close on Monday, buoyed chiefly by technology stocks.

S&P 500 Futures fell 0.1% to 5,527.75 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.2% to 20,016.00 points by 19:49 ET (23:49 GMT). Dow Jones Futures fell 0.1% to 39,471.0 points.

Powell, payrolls and Fed minutes in focus
Powell is set to speak at a European Central Bank conference on Tuesday, where the Fed Chair could potentially address recent data showing some cooling in the U.S. economy and inflation.

The minutes of the Fed’s meeting are due on Wednesday, and come after the central bank forecast during the meeting that it will cut interest rates only once in 2024. Several Fed officials have also warned that sticky inflation will delay any plans to loosen policy.

Nonfarm payrolls data is due on Friday and is expected to provide more cues on the labor market. The sector has been running hot despite sticky inflation and high interest rates, and is also a key consideration for the Fed in cutting interest rates.

But despite hawkish signals from the Fed, traders were seen increasing their bets that the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points in September. The CME Fedwatch tool showed traders pricing in a 59% chance of such a possibility.

Wall St edges higher, tech reigns
Increased expectations of rate cuts kept investors positive on stock markets, helping Wall Street rise past signs of a cooling U.S. economy.

Technology stocks remained the biggest boost to indexes, amid persistent bets that artificial intelligence will help drive up demand for the sector.

The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 5,475.09 points, while the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.8% to 17,876.26 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to 39,169.52 points.

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) jumped 6% before its second quarter deliveries, while NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) ended up 1% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its price target on the AI darling.

Among aftermarket movers, Paramount Global (NASDAQ:PARAA) rose 3% after The New York Times reported that billionaire Barry Diller was considering a bid for the firm.

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01/07/2024

Jefferies says Anglo American coal fire likely to affect met coal sale

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - A fire at Anglo American (JO:AGLJ)'s Grosvenor metallurgical coal mine in Australia is likely to negatively affect its Australian met coal business, broker Jefferies said in a note on Monday.

Anglo American said on Sunday it was battling an underground fire at the coal mine in Australia's Queensland state after a blaze ignited there on Saturday. There were no injuries, but it said it expects the mine to remain shut for several months.

KEY QUOTE

"On our estimates, Grosvenor accounts for ~30% of the $4.5bn value we attribute to Anglo's met coal business. This fire could significantly damage the timing and valuation of a potential sale of Moranbah North and Grosvenor."

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

Anglo American rebuffed a $49 billion offer from BHP Group (NYSE:BHP) in May in favour of a strategy laid out by CEO Duncan Wanblad that included a process to sell its coal, nickel and diamond assets.

At the time, investors said Wanblad would have to meet his targets promptly, or the company would be vulnerable to another bid by "all the usual suspects".

The fire is the second at the mine since 2020, when a similar outbreak injured five workers, and Anglo said then it would work to ensure such an incident never happened again, Jefferies noted.

BY THE NUMBERS

Anglo American's steelmaking coal business expects to produce around 8 million tonnes in the first half of 2024, of which Grosvenor will contribute around 2.3 million tonnes.

Anglo had guided to 15 to 17 million tonnes for the year, of which Grosvenor was expected to contribute around 3.5 million tonnes due to mine planning.

Jefferies assumes the mine will be offline until mid-2025 and sees the closure tightening the 90 million tonne per year seaborn met coal market.

MARKET REACTION

Anglo American shares closed at 2502 pence on Friday.

THE RESPONSE

Anglo said in a statement to Reuters that it still intends to divest its steelmaking coal business and that it had received strong interest from a wide range of potential buyers.

⁠ "The incident underground at Grosvenor is serious and it will take some time to assess the impact on the mine and implement remedial action," it said, adding it was focused on ensuring the safety and wellbeing of its workforce and local communities.

"We will assess the timing of the divestment process in the coming weeks but we are continuing the preparation work in the meantime."

30/06/2024

Cancer victims lose bid to block proposed J&J talc bankruptcy

A federal judge on Friday rejected a bid by a group of cancer victims to block Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) from pursuing a proposed bankruptcy settlement of tens of thousands of lawsuits alleging the company's baby powder and other talc products contain cancer-causing asbestos.

The cancer victims sought a preliminary order in New Jersey on June 11 to preventing J&J from filing for bankruptcy outside the state, which would have effectively foiled the $6.48 billion settlement plan. The motion was part of a class action lawsuit brought by plaintiffs' lawyers opposed to the plan.

But U.S. District Judge Michael Shipp on Friday said he could not grant the motion because any harm to the victims was "strictly hypothetical." He said he had no jurisdiction to resolve a dispute over "events that have not, and may never, occur."

A lawyer for the plaintiffs did not immediately respond to a request for comment late on Friday.

J&J hopes to garner support from 75% of claimants as part of the prepackaged bankruptcy plan. It has set a July 26 voting deadline.

The healthcare conglomerate faces lawsuits from more than 61,000 plaintiffs alleging its talc caused ovarian cancer or mesothelioma, a deadly cancer linked to asbestos exposure.

J&J maintains its talc is safe, asbestos-free and does not cause cancer. The company contends a bankruptcy settlement pays claimants fairly and equitably, as opposed to the civil justice system in which most plaintiffs receive nothing while some win outsized awards.

Plaintiffs' attorneys opposing the plan say it is a fraudulent attempt to put billions of dollars of the company's assets out of plaintiffs' reach, preventing them from getting the compensation they deserve.

J&J has failed twice to execute a bankruptcy maneuver aimed at ending current and future talc lawsuits.

The strategy, known as a Texas two-step, involves creating a subsidiary to absorb J&J's talc liability, which then declares bankruptcy to resolve cases. Two courts previously found J&J's subsidiary lacked the "financial distress" necessary to legitimize a bankruptcy filing.

J&J's plan focuses on resolving claims in bankruptcy from women with ovarian and other gynecological cancers allegedly linked to talc. It has settled most mesothelioma cases outside of bankruptcy, and this month finalized a separate $700 million agreement to resolve claims from state attorneys general.

28/06/2024

Nike forecasts surprise revenue fall as upstarts steal marketshare; stock dives

Nike on Thursday forecast a surprise drop in fiscal 2025 revenue, hurt by faltering demand for its sneakers as consumers covet newer brands such as On and Hoka, pushing its shares down over 12% after hours.

Nike (NYSE:NKE) said it expects a mid-single-digit percentage fall in annual revenue. Analysts expected a 0.91% rise, according to LSEG data. Fourth-quarter revenue also missed estimates.

The company's stock, which has declined 13% so far this year, was set to lose more than $15 billion in market value if the losses hold on Friday.

The Air Jordan maker's efforts to drive more sales through its direct-to-consumer channel, mainly in North America, has been unsuccessful so far, as customers have become pickier about what they spend on. Rival brands On and Deckers' Hoka have taken away some of Nike's market share with their more fashionable products.

Shares in these two companies also slipped between 1% and 2% in post-market trading.

To stem a worsening decline in sales, Nike has cut back on oversupplied brands such as Air Force 1, poured money into making better running shoes - more cushion under the midfoot to increase stability - and is planning a fresh iteration of the popular Air Max line.

It is also betting that Olympics this year will help it win back some market share by spotlighting performance products such as the Alphafly 3 racer and the Pegasus running shoe.

"Nike is trying to sell a narrative that it's reinventing," said GlobalData analyst Neil Saunders. "But the numbers they have given ... for 2025, really suggest a company that's in a bit of trouble and the things they're doing just are not going to deliver across next year."

In North America, "this quarter we saw softer traffic in our factory stores highlighting increasing pressure being felt by the value consumer," Nike CFO Matthew Friend said on a post-earnings call.

To woo price conscious customers, Nike said it will offer a refreshed lineup of footwear below $100.

Nike's US market share in the sports footwear category in 2023 fell to 34.97% in 2023 from 35.37% in 2022, and 35.40% in 2021, according to GlobalData.

Weak demand in Nike's international markets, including China, is also hurting sales, Friend said. Brick-and-mortar traffic in China during the March-May quarter fell in the double digits.

Greater China accounted for 14.7% of Nike's 2024 revenue; North America made up 42%.

'SERVING THE ATHLETE'

In the run up to Olympics, Nike is touting its roots in pure sport. It said earlier it was spending more on this Olympics than any previous Games.

"The Paris Olympics offers us a pinnacle moment to communicate our vision of sport to the world. This is led by breakthrough innovation and announced by a brand campaign that you won't be able to miss," CEO John Donahoe said on the call.

He said Nike was putting "sport back at the center of everything we do, serving the athlete."

Among bright spots in its earnings reportcard for the fourth quarter, revenue in Nike's wholesale business rose 5%. But growth in its direct-to-consumer business fell 8%.

Fourth-quarter net revenue slipped 1.7% to $12.61 billion falling short of estimates of $12.84 billion.

Nike's $2 billion cost savings plan including layoffs, also helped the company's adjusted earnings of $1.01 top estimates of 83 cents.

For the first quarter, Nike forecast a roughly 10% fall in revenue, compared with expectations of a 3.16% fall.

27/06/2024

Micron tumbles as AI revenue surge falls short of lofty expectations

Micron shares dropped 6% in premarket trading on Thursday after the chipmaker's current-quarter revenue forecast failed to impress investors looking for outsized results powered by the AI demand surge.

The chipmaker forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $7.6 billion, plus or minus $200 million, in line with analysts' average estimate even as the company said it had "sold out" its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips for this year and the next.

Micron (NASDAQ:MU) is one of the few providers of HBM chips that power the world's most advanced AI systems, allowing the company to cash in on surging demand for semiconductors and driving up its stock 67% so far this year.

"Anything less than fantastic is not good enough when your share price got multiplied by three in just about 18 months," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank in a note.

The chipmaker is set to lose $10 billion at current share price levels of $133.25. Peers Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) were also down 0.2-2% in premarket trading.

"The market reaction underscores the high expectations for every company that is part of the AI ecosystem," said analysts at Saxo Bank.

Some analysts, however, were positive about the firm's end markets, after the company beat estimates for third-quarter revenue.

Goldman Sachs's analysts view the stock's pullback "as an opportunity to add to positions" as the brokerage continues to see market share gains for the company in the lucrative HBM chip market.

Piper Sandler's Harsh Kumar had a similar view. "At a high level, end markets for MU continue to improve with demand increasing and supply still relatively tight."

"We envision that these conditions will continue to persist at least through the vast majority of 2025 as well," Kumar added.

At least two brokerages raised their price targets following the results. Micron has a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.07, compared with AI darling Nvidia's 40.22 and the industry median of 23.46, according to LSEG data.

27/06/2024

Birkenstock prices L Catterton entity's secondary offering at $54/share

German sandal maker Birkenstock (NYSE:BIRK) said on Wednesday it has priced a $756 million secondary offering by an entity affiliated with L Catterton at $54 a piece.

U.S. private equity firm L Catterton, backed by French billionaire Bernard Arnault and luxury goods giant LVMH, is looking to reduce its stake to 73.2% from 81.1% in the German firm.

Birkenstock is not selling any shares in the offering and will not receive any proceeds from the sale by L Catterton, the footwear brand said in a statement.

In May, Birkenstock raised its annual revenue and core profit forecasts, betting on full-price selling and strong demand for its cork-based sandals and newer closed-toe styles mainly at its own stores.

26/06/2024

Reddit to update web standard to block automated website scraping

Social media platform Reddit said on Tuesday it will update a web standard used by the platform to block automated data scraping from its website, following reports that AI startups were bypassing the rule to gather content for their systems.

The move comes at a time when artificial intelligence firms have been accused of plagiarizing content from publishers to create AI-generated summaries without giving credit or asking for permission.

Reddit said that it would update the Robots Exclusion Protocol, or "robots.txt," a widely accepted standard meant to determine which parts of a site are allowed to be crawled.

The company also said it will maintain rate-limiting, a technique used to control the number of requests from one particular entity, and will block unknown bots and crawlers from data scraping - collecting and saving raw information - on its website.

More recently, robots.txt has become a key tool that publishers employ to prevent tech companies from using their content free-of-charge to train AI algorithms and create summaries in response to some search queries.

Last week, a letter to publishers by the content licensing startup TollBit said that several AI firms were circumventing the web standard to scrape publisher sites.

This follows a Wired investigation which found that AI search startup Perplexity likely bypassed efforts to block its web crawler via robots.txt.

Earlier in June, business media publisher Forbes accused Perplexity of plagiarizing its investigative stories for use in generative AI systems without giving credit.

Reddit said on Tuesday that researchers and organizations such as the Internet Archive will continue to have access to its content for non-commercial use.

25/06/2024

FTX seeks creditor votes on bankruptcy wind-down payments

NEW YORK (Reuters) - FTX on Tuesday will ask a judge to allow customers of the bankrupt crypto exchange to vote on a liquidation plan that would pay them back in cash, over the objections of some customers who have demanded higher repayments.

Since filing for bankruptcy, FTX has recovered up to $16 billion to repay customers, including over $12 billion in cash, and it says it will repay all customer claims in full. The company will ask U.S. Bankruptcy Judge John Dorsey to approve its disclosure statement and open voting on the wind-down plan at a Tuesday court hearing in Wilmington, Delaware.

But some FTX customers dispute those statements, arguing that FTX will repay customer claims based on much lower cryptocurrency prices from November 2022, when the exchange filed for bankruptcy.

Dorsey has already signed off on that approach to valuing claims, but many FTX customers feel short-changed by the fact that they are not benefiting from a recent rise in crypto prices. Customers that had one bitcoin deposited on FTX when it went bankrupt will receive about $16,800 in cash, instead of the roughly $60,000 that a bitcoin is worth today.

Aggrieved FTX customers have urged the court not to allow votes to go forward on a bankruptcy plan that they say is fatally flawed, and they have separately filed lawsuits outside of bankruptcy court seeking rulings that FTX never owned customer deposits and must repay their full, current value.

The objecting creditors argue that FTX's proposed voting forms are meant to mislead customers by "breathlessly touting what they claim to be a full recovery with interest."

"Customers must be made aware that the plan's 'full recovery' is nothing of the sort," the creditors said in their objection.

FTX, once among the world's top crypto exchanges, shook the sector with its collapse, leaving an estimated 9 million customers and investors facing billions of dollars in losses.

FTX CEO John Ray, a turnaround specialist who took over after FTX filed for bankruptcy, told Reuters that FTX could not simply return the cryptocurrency that customers deposited. Those funds are long gone, stolen by former CEO and founder Sam Bankman-Fried, who has since been sentenced to 25 years in prison.

"FTX.com had a massive shortfall at the time of the chapter 11 filing in November 2022 – holding only 0.1% of Bitcoin and only 1.2% of the Ethereum customers believed the exchange held," Ray said in a statement. "We cannot give tokens back that we never had."

Cash payments are the only fair way to distribute value to a wide variety of customers, who had different types of cryptocurrency assets whose values have fluctuated greatly since the company went bankrupt, Ray said.

"We cannot pay one creditor more without taking it from another creditor," Ray said. "Those arguing for appreciation of 'their' tokens would be taking money away from fellow customers who held cash, stablecoin or other crypto."

FTX said in recent court filings that 98% of its customers will be able to receive full repayment within 60 days of a bankruptcy court approval of its wind-down plan. The faster payment option will cover all customers who are owed up to $50,000.

If Dorsey approves FTX's disclosure statement, creditors will have until Aug. 16 to cast their ballots.

25/06/2024

Alex Jones bankruptcy trustee plans to wind down Infowars

A court-appointed bankruptcy trustee on Sunday signaled his intent to shut down Alex Jones' Infowars company, but said he wants to prevent a "money grab" by families who have sued Jones over his lies about the deadly 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting.

The trustee, Christopher Murray, said that he has begun "planning to wind-up [Infowars owner Free Speech Systems'] operations and liquidate its inventory" in an effort to repay some of the $1.5 billion that Jones owes to the relatives of 20 students and six staff members killed in the 2012 mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut.

But that effort has been imperiled by some of the families' recent efforts to collect on their debts, according to Murray, who was appointed to sell Jones' assets on June 14.

Two of the Sandy Hook parents, Neil Heslin and Scarlett Lewis, had sought a court order that would allow them to seize FSS’s cash, and Murray asked U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Christopher Lopez to block that from happening.

"The specter of a pell-mell seizure of FSS's assets, including its cash, threatens to throw the business into chaos, potentially stopping it in its tracks," Murray wrote. "The Trustee seeks this Court's intervention to prevent a value-destructive money grab and allow an orderly process to take its course."

FSS's chief restructuring officer testified on June 14 that the company had over $6 million in cash and about $1 million in unsold inventory, mostly health supplements.

FSS was dismissed from bankruptcy on the same date that Murray was placed in charge of Jones' finances. The dismissal allowed the company to continue broadcasting, but also allowed its creditors to resume collection efforts.

An attorney for Heslin and Lewis could not immediately be reached for comment.

Before Free Speech Systems was dismissed from bankruptcy, the Sandy Hook families were divided on what should happen to the company.

Families who sued Jones in Connecticut argued the company should be shut down immediately, to prevent Jones from hiding the company's cash or working to undermine the company from the inside. Families who sued Jones in Texas argued instead that he would pay more in the long run if he kept control of his business instead of "selling it for scraps."

Jones filed for bankruptcy protection in December 2022 after courts in Connecticut and Texas ordered him to pay $1.5 billion to the Sandy Hook families for his repeated claims that the Sandy Hook killings were staged with actors as part of a government plot to seize Americans' guns. Jones has since acknowledged that the shooting occurred.

Jones was unable to reach a bankruptcy settlement with the families, and the judge overseeing his bankruptcy ruled that Jones could not use bankruptcy to wipe out the debt, because the legal judgments resulted from Jones' "willful and malicious" conduct.

24/06/2024

Morgan Stanley says market focusing on softening growth

Year-to-date macroeconomic data has shown signs of weakness, leading to softness in lower-quality and economically sensitive market segments, while a narrow selection of high-quality mega-cap stocks has driven performance.

According to Morgan Stanley strategists, this suggests that the market “is becoming more focused on growth softening and less focused on inflation and rates.”

“The underperformance of small caps despite falling rates is a good example of this phenomenon,” strategists wrote.

“This backdrop syncs with our long-standing view that the current policy mix of heavy fiscal and higher front-end rates is effectively crowding out many economic participants,” they added.

Unless there’s a significant shift in the macro picture, Morgan Stanley believes that large-cap quality stocks will continue to lead outperformance. The Wall Street giant sees three potential triggers for such a shift.

Primarily, a reacceleration of inflation and growth could prompt the Fed to reconsider rate hikes, however, Morgan Stanley strategists note this seems unlikely and is minimally priced into markets. If it occurs, it might broaden the equity rally to lagging sectors like small caps and regional banks, though higher rates could impact valuations for large caps.

Moreover, a deterioration in liquidity could lead to equity outflows, particularly if the government deficit's funding becomes a concern.

“A good way to monitor this risk is the term premium, which remains near zero,” strategists said. “Should this change, and the term premium rises like last fall, we’d expect a broad decline in equities, with few stocks doing well.”

Currently, liquidity provisions mitigate this risk, they added.

Lastly, a substantial growth scare could negatively impact equity multiples across the board. In this scenario, large-cap quality might moderately outperform, but defensive stocks would likely fare better.

Against the current backdrop, strategists continue to recommend a barbell approach, balancing large-cap quality growth with defensives. On the flip side, they advise against investing in lower-quality cyclicals and caution against the temptation to expect a broad market rally.

Mandiri Sekuritas Saham

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