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European stock markets started the new week on a negative note, opening mostly lower on Monday 31 October 2022 after wea...
31/10/2022

European stock markets started the new week on a negative note, opening mostly lower on Monday 31 October 2022 after weak factory activity data in China and ahead of the release of key euro zone inflation data. Earlier in the session, Germany's DAX index was trading 0.06% lower, London's FTSE 100 was down 0.04%, while France's CAC 40 was down 0.17%. China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in October, with the official purchasing managers' index dropping to 49.2, from September's release of 50.1, amid renewed disruption from the COVID-related lockdowns. China's manufacturing sector is now back into contraction territory after an unexpected increase in September, and marked a sluggish start to the fourth quarter for the world's second-largest economy, and Europe's main export market. Returning to Europe, the focus this Monday will be on the flash October inflation forecast in the Eurozone, which is expected to remain very high with a 10.2% year-on-year increase. The European Central Bank also raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the second time in a row last week, and said at the time it expected to raise rates "further" as it continues to combat inflation aggressively.

The Eurozone is scheduled to release its quick inflation forecast for October on Monday which is expected to hit a recor...
31/10/2022

The Eurozone is scheduled to release its quick inflation forecast for October on Monday which is expected to hit a record high of 10.2%. Last Thursday the European Central Bank delivered its second straight 75 basis point rate hike and subsequent statements by policymakers suggest it will continue to tighten in the coming months to prevent inflation from taking root, despite concerns over a looming recession. The European energy crisis sparked by Russia's war in Ukraine has exacerbated the economic impact of already high inflation resulting in a slowdown in consumer spending. The euro area will also release preliminary GDP figures for the third quarter on Monday, which are expected to show minor expansion, but most economists expect the bloc's economy to enter contraction territory in the fourth quarter.

The BoE looks set to raise interest rates by 75 basis points later Thursday, in its eighth straight rate hike as it aims...
31/10/2022

The BoE looks set to raise interest rates by 75 basis points later Thursday, in its eighth straight rate hike as it aims to combat inflation currently running above 10%, even as the UK heads into a recession that could be exacerbated by spending cuts under policy of the new prime minister Rishi Sunak.

Friday's US October nonfarm payrolls report will be key in helping investors set expectations ahead of the central bank'...
31/10/2022

Friday's US October nonfarm payrolls report will be key in helping investors set expectations ahead of the central bank's December meeting. Analysts expect the Labor Department to report that the US economy added 200,000 jobs last month, compared with 263,000 in September, while annual growth in average hourly earnings is also expected to moderate. Data on Friday showed that US labor costs rose strongly in the third quarter, but private sector wage growth slowed considerably, suggesting that inflation has peaked or is nearing it.

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row at the end of its two-day po...
31/10/2022

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Investors will instead seek hints from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the pace of future gains may slow after recent weaker economic data. Financial markets are currently pricing in a smaller 50 basis point rate hike at the Fed's December meeting and another 50 basis point over the first two meetings of next year.

Service activity figures in China in October fell for the first time since May, as strict COVID restrictions halted trav...
31/10/2022

Service activity figures in China in October fell for the first time since May, as strict COVID restrictions halted travel and gatherings during yesterday's Golden Week holiday period, dealing a major blow to the consumption sector. The official non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 48.7 from 50.6 in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. A reading above the 50 point mark indicates expansion in activity while a reading below indicates contraction. China's official composite PMI, which covers both manufacturing and services activity, came in at 49.0 from 50.9 in September.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept interest rates at a record low as expected on Friday, and said inflation is likely to pick ...
28/10/2022

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept interest rates at a record low as expected on Friday, and said inflation is likely to pick up in the near term as Japan's economy struggles with rising raw material costs and supply chain problems. The central bank kept its short-term interest rate target at negative 0.1%, and said in a statement that it would continue to guide the 10-year bond yield at 0%. The central bank now expects year-end CPI inflation at 3%, higher than the previous estimate of 2.3%. But also expects inflation to ease to around 1.5% in 2023 and 2024.

Asian equities edged lower on Friday 28 October 2022, as investors grappled with mixed earnings reports. The MSCI index ...
28/10/2022

Asian equities edged lower on Friday 28 October 2022, as investors grappled with mixed earnings reports. The MSCI index of Asia Pacific shares excluding Japan fell 0.32%, poised to snap a three-day winning streak. The index is down nearly 3% for the month and 30% for the year. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.35%, while Australia's ASX 200 index fell 0.82%. China's Shanghai composite fell 0.88%, Seoul's Kospi traded slightly down 0.12%, while HK's Hangseng fell sharply 1.8%. Chinese stocks had a tough week, with investors reeling from Monday's brutal sell-off. Dismal industrial profit figures and the widespread COVID-19 outbreak also weighed on sentiment.

Japan's core consumer price index hit a 33-year high in October, data showed on Friday, suggesting continued inflationar...
28/10/2022

Japan's core consumer price index hit a 33-year high in October, data showed on Friday, suggesting continued inflationary pressures in the country as expensive fuel imports and rising raw material costs were exacerbated by a weak yen. The Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% in October, the highest level since late 1989, data from the Japanese Bureau of Statistics showed. The figure was above expectations of 3.1% and last month's figure of 2.8%. Tokyo's headline CPI inflation rose 3.5% in October and hit its highest level in 31 years. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, inflation eased slightly in October to 0.2% from 0.3% in the previous month. The figures suggest that price pressures in the world's third-largest economy are expected to persist, and are likely to worsen in the coming months. The latest data showed that CPI inflation across the country rose more than expected to an eight-year high in September. Imports of fuel and raw materials are the biggest contributor to Japan's inflation this year, mainly due to volatility in commodity markets.

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