08/05/2026
Bali airport hit 24.1 million passengers in 2025.
That broke the pre-pandemic record. And most investors
are still pricing the market as if the record were intact.
Here is the chain of consequence I run when I see
that number — and why it matters for anyone modelling
a Bali asset right now.
Step 1: The demand ceiling moved.
The 2019 peak was 24 million for a full year.
Bali cleared that in 2025 — with 13 new international
routes added and a second airport still under development.
The structural floor on demand is higher than it was
when most current underwriting models were built.
Step 2: Occupancy is tightening — but unevenly.
Hotel occupancy across Bali averaged 72% in 2024–2025,
with premium properties running above 80%.
Short-term rental is more nuanced. Our OTA data shows
market average occupancy around 59% — with a wide spread
by location and bedroom count. The top-performing
submarkets are compressing faster than the average.
Which means: the gap between a well-chosen asset and
an average one is widening, not narrowing.
Step 3: The yield window is closing.
When demand grows faster than supply, yields compress.
Not because the asset weakens — because the entry price
catches up to the income.
The 10–12% gross yield window that defined Bali
off-plan for the last three years is narrowing in
the prime zones. It hasn't closed. But it is
directionally clear where it goes from here.
Step 4: What this means for timing.
The investor who entered Berawa or Canggu in 2021–2022
bought into a demand story that was still unproven.
The investor entering today buys into a demand story
that is confirmed — and priced accordingly in
the premium zones.
The remaining opportunity isn't in "will Bali grow."
That question is settled.
It's in which submarkets are 18–24 months behind the
curve on price discovery. And whether the asset you're
looking at is in one of them.
We cover this in detail in the Wellstate Digest —
our quarterly market analysis with OTA data,
submarket breakdowns, and yield models by location.
If you want a copy, comment "digest" below.