02/10/2026
What can signal a shift in the relationship between stocks and bonds? The answer may lie in places investors don’t always look.
Across 127 macroeconomic indicators, manufacturing and housing data stood out as useful signals, while familiar measures such as inflation, industrial production, the federal funds rate, and the yield curve told only part of the story.
New research from Friedrich Baumann, Abdolreza Nazemi, and Frank J. Fabozzi, CFA, for CFA Institute Research Foundation looks at which signals matter most, and why the usual indicators may fall short.
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This brief discusses how machine learning can identify macroeconomic drivers of the shifting stock–bond correlation, offering actionable insights for asset allocation and risk management.