ZBDealer, Reclamation Street, Mong Kok (2026)

28/09/2022

另外从长期持有的BTC走势来看，虽然一周之内出现了连续两次BTC价格突破20,000美金后又震荡回19,000美金下方的情况，但是可以明显的看到长期持有者的BTC不但没有参与到换手中，反而还处于上涨的趋势，意味着更多的筹码对于当前的价格完全没有兴趣，而频繁参加换手的反而更多的还是短期筹码。

在这里不得不说一句，在宏观情绪没有改变之前，当前的BTC和ETH还未走出九月份加息的阴影，短时间价格的上涨并不能排除一定的推动作用，比如月底的期权交割，有兴趣的小伙伴可以看看历史的价格走势，几乎都是在交割周的周一到周三都会出现比较大幅的价格波动，如果低于最大痛点几乎都会拉盘。

而高于最大痛点，几乎都会砸盘，尤其是周一的数据更加的明显。翻翻日历，看看价格走势就知道了。上周末就已经做出预警了，但估计注意的小伙伴还是太少了。从现在稳定币的市值到宏观情绪，再到购买力的减弱来看，想要实现“牛回”还任重而道远。更重要的还是要通过CPI的走势来确定目前是不是底部区间。

而从BTC和ETH的情绪来看，在早晨币价下跌的情况下，BTC和ETH做出了完全不同的反映，在价格不断下跌的时候BTC看多的情绪反而更加的旺盛，而ETH却完全相反，价格越低越是更加集中且大面积的看空。而目前的价格走势确实难以判断，用户的悲观情绪很容易就会被各种原因所带动。

综上所述，虽然今天凌晨美股出现了大幅下跌的情况，但收盘前纳指期货还是结束了五连跌的趋势，实现了微幅的上涨，但上午九点在苹果减产带来的利空作用下盘后纳指期货大幅下跌，带动BTC和ETH再次靠近了相对的底部，但如果不是把握短线走势的高手，也没有打算中长期持币的打算，还是慎重抄底。

In addition, from the perspective of the trend of long-term BTC holdings, although the price of BTC exceeded $20,000 for two consecutive times in a week and then oscillated back to below $19,000, it can be clearly seen that long-term holders of BTC did not participate in the exchange of hands, but still in a rising trend. It means that more chips are not interested in the current price at all, and those who frequently participate in the exchange are more short-term chips.

It has to be said here that before the macro sentiment has not changed, the current BTC and ETH have not yet come out of the shadow of interest rate hike in September, a short period of price rise can not exclude a certain driving effect, such as the end of the month of the option delivery, interested partners can look at the historical price trend, Almost all are in the delivery week Monday to Wednesday will appear relatively large price fluctuations, if below the maximum pain point will almost pull.

And higher than the maximum pain point, almost will hit the plate, especially Monday's data is more obvious. Just look at the calendar and see what the prices are doing. Warnings were made over the weekend, but too few people are likely to have paid attention. From the current market value of stable coins to macro sentiment, and then to the weakening of purchasing power, there is still a long way to go to achieve a "bull return". More important or through the trend of CPI to determine whether the current bottom range.

And from the perspective of BTC and ETH sentiment, in the morning when the price fell, BTC and ETH made a completely different reflection, when the price continues to fall, BTC bullish sentiment is more exuberant, while ETH is completely opposite, the lower the price, the more concentrated and large area of bearish. However, the current price trend is really difficult to judge, users' pessimism can easily be driven by a variety of reasons.

To sum up, although the sharp drop in U.S. stocks happen early this morning, but before the close or Nasdaq futures ended five losses of trend, realized slightly increases, but at 9 a.m. in apple production brings the negative effect of the Nasdaq futures fell sharply after the footwall, drive the BTC and ETH again near the bottom of the relative, but if not grasp the short-term fluctuations, There is no plan to hold money for a long time, or prudent bottom.

28/09/2022

而对应的从交易所中转出提现的数据就出现了截然不同的情况，相对来说BTC的提现数据还是没有能覆盖整体的抛压，这也和BTC上涨和下跌都很快有关，尤其是在BTC高速上涨的时候伴随“牛回”的呼声应该有很多的小伙伴在高位较多的买入。而ETH因为价格的波动相对较低，存量较高的原因导致了提现能覆盖抛压。

而从交易所的存量看来，也能清晰的看到BTC的存量确实出现了上升的趋势，这么来说240万枚BTC的交易所存量也争夺了很久，到现在似乎已经形成了很强的胶着感。而ETH虽然库存量在持续的降低，但早期过多的堆积还是有更高于BTC的风险，毕竟现在的存量依然超过了LUNA事件时期的抛压。

And corresponding removing withdrawal from the exchange of data in different situation, relatively BTC withdrawal data still can not cover the whole selling pressure, BTC rise and fall and it is fast, especially in BTC high-speed rise along with the call for "cow back" should have a lot of friends in high more buying. However, ETH can cover the selling pressure due to the relatively low price fluctuation and high stock.

From the perspective of the stock of the exchange, it is clear that the stock of BTC has indeed shown an upward trend. In this way, the stock of 2.4 million BTC has been contested for a long time, and now it seems to have formed a strong sense of glue. Although ETH inventory continues to decrease, there is still a risk that excessive accumulation in the early stage will be higher than that of BTC, after all, the current inventory still exceeds the selling pressure during the LUNA incident.

28/09/2022

重要的还是在于美联储的货币政策。但是从购买力来看，美股开盘的第二天作为成交主力的USDT转入交易所的资金量相比昨天又一次略微的提升，说明价格的降低反而引发更多的关注和购买，毕竟一天之内的“牛熊转换”让很多的投资者再一次亏损离场。而USDC则继续处于下降的趋势，但较低的成交量使得影响并不大。

从抛压来看，价格的暴涨暴跌确实导致了更多筹码转移到了交易所中，截止到今天早晨八点的数据来看BTC相对于前一个交易日来说抛压出现了较大幅度的上升，即便不通过数据对比也能知道抛压更多的还是在昨天“抄底”的筹码，不是已经亏损离场就是在交易所中等待更好的价格。而ETH的抛压则处于降低的趋势。

What matters is the Fed's monetary policy. However, from the perspective of purchasing power, the amount of funds transferred to the exchange of USDT as the main transaction force on the second day of the opening of the US stock market increased slightly compared with yesterday, indicating that the price reduction has triggered more attention and purchase, after all, the "bull and bear conversion" within a day made many investors leave the market again at a loss. USDC continues to be in a downward trend, but low volume makes the impact less significant.

From the point of selling pressure, slump in prices surged on indeed led to more leverage to exchange, by the end of the data at eight o 'clock this morning BTC relative to the previous trading day selling pressure rise considerably, if not by comparison with data can know selling more or "bottom" chip yesterday, Either have left the market at a loss or wait for a better price on the exchange. However, ETH selling pressure is in a downward trend.

28/09/2022

而另一个对财政赤字更加敏感的就是美国的国债，在今天凌晨一点的时候美国财政部拍卖了440亿美元五年期的国债，得标利率4.228%，相隔仅一个月利率的差距就高达1%。而即便如此，仍然出现了大笔资金继续从美债中离场的迹象，这说明了投资者对于美国的经济情况继续保持不乐观的态度，风险市场的上涨会更难。

而对于资金逃离来说，不仅仅是发生在美债的市场中，币圈的稳定币市值在USDC的持续走弱的情况下继续保持着下跌的趋势，截止到今天早晨的八点的USDC市值再次减少了1.8亿美金，但稳定币的市值不跌反涨，还上升了1.9亿美金，这代表了虽然有美国投资者撤出币市，但仍然开始有更多的资金入场了。

但从长远来看，失去美国投资者的币市很有可能会逐渐的脱离和纳指的高度重合，对现在的情况来说很难界定是好事还是坏事。

同一时间作为成交的主力的USDT和BUSD来说，USDT依然保持着小幅度上升大概100万美金的趋势，这也是比较有趣的地方，毕竟我们已经知道欧洲和亚洲尤其是欧洲是USDT使用率最高的地方，而目前欧洲的水深火热甚至超过了美国，不但面对的高通胀和高加息，且欧洲的股市和债市更加的不给力。

但就是这种情况下欧洲人对于币市或者说是对于BTC和ETH的购买力仍然显示出极为旺盛的情绪，这段时间在美国投资者大幅缩减的情况下如果没有欧洲资金的注入，估计BTC和ETH早就不知道跌到哪里去了。

至于BUSD则在沉浸了将近两周后突然出现了高达3.7亿美金的增幅，不但直接抵消了USDC市值的消减，反而还带动了整体稳定币市值的上升，虽然很难判出带来资金用户的属地，但作为成交次主力的BUSD来说，更多的场外资金入场必然会提升转化为购买力的概率。

而作为衡量ETH现货杠杆的DAI来说，依然没有太大的变化，作为去中心化稳定币的头号交椅，DAI更多的还是作为中间的桥梁使用，相当于把ETH货币化。所以从总的稳定币市值来看，虽然还是处于下跌的状态，但当前的存量依然足够将币市推进到2021年的高峰，所以USDC的减持并不足以拖慢上涨的后腿。

On a more deficit-sensitive note, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $44 billion of five-year notes at a rate of 4.228% at 1 a.m., a gap of 1% in just one month. Even so, there are signs that large amounts of money are continuing to move out of Treasury's, suggesting that investors remain less optimistic about the U.S. economy, making it harder for risk markets to rally.

As for the capital flight, it is not only in the US bond market. The market value of stable coin in the currency circle continues to maintain a downward trend in the case of the continuous weakening of USDC. As of 8 o 'clock this morning, the market value of USDC again decreased by 180 million dollars, but the market value of stable coin rose by 190 million dollars instead of falling. This represents the beginning of more money entering the currency market, even as American investors exit the market.

But in the long run, it is likely that the currency market, which has lost American investors, will gradually move out of alignment with the stock market, which is hard to say whether it is a good thing or a bad thing.

At the same time, USDT and BUSD, which are the main forces of transaction, still maintain the trend of a small increase of about $1 million, which is also interesting. After all, we have known that Europe and Asia, especially Europe, are the places with the highest USDT usage rate, while the current situation in Europe is even worse than that in the United States. In the face of high inflation and higher interest rates, Europe's stock and bond markets are even less buoyant.

But in this case, the Europeans for the currency market or for the purchasing power of BTC and ETH still show extremely strong sentiment, this time in the United States investors sharply reduced the situation without the injection of European funds, BTC and ETH would not know where to go.

As for BUSD, after nearly two weeks of immersing in it, it suddenly saw an increase of up to 370 million dollars, which not only directly offset the reduction of the market value of USDC, but also led to the rise of the overall stable coin market value. Although it is difficult to determine the territory of users who bring funds, BUSD, as the main force of transactions, More money on the sidelines will inevitably increase the probability of conversion into purchasing power.

DAI, as a measure of ETH spot leverage, has not changed much. As the number one position of decentralized stable coin, DAI is still used as a bridge in the middle, equivalent to monetize ETH. Therefore, from the perspective of the total stablecoin market value, although it is still in a state of decline, the current stock is still enough to push the market to the peak in 2021, so the reduction of USDC holdings is not enough to slow down the rise.

28/09/2022

距离九月结束也只有三天了，本来一直有望下降的两油也出现了反弹的趋势，主要还是因为俄罗斯的在三要求下欧佩克+很有可能会做出减产的决定，虽然减产的量并不大，但也让油价暂缓了下跌的趋势，另外就是美国自己还关闭了部分墨西哥湾的石油和天然气的产量，也进一步推高了石油的价格。

昨天晚上的推文也介绍了目前房屋价格下降的趋势，咨询了部分美国的小伙伴，发现房租依然没有降低的趋势，而房租占CPI以及核心CPI中也有很高的比重，所以从目前的形势来看九月份的广义CPI确实可以降低，但是核心CPI的降低难度可能会较大，这样也会导致美联储继续强化加息。风险市场的底部就未必是现在了。

另一个需要关注的就是九月份的结束也代表了第三季度的结束，今天GDPNow公布了最新的美国第三季度的GDP数据，很有意思的是虽然得出的结论还是0.3%，但是该数据是经过四舍五入的，而且从图表走势中显示出GDP的走势出现了略微上升的趋势。这对于美联储来说可能是最理想的结果。

即阻止了经济的快速增涨，又不至于引发整体的衰退。突然想到今天看到一条白宫发布的快讯，说美国国会将在本周五通过一项临时的政府拨款法案，但是确没有讲拨款的用处在哪里，不知道这会不会加重美国的财政赤字的负担，毕竟穆迪分析公司的高级员曾公开表示过拜登在位期间不但没有消减赤字反而还增加了。

From end of September and only three days, had been expected to decline in the trend of the two oil also rebounded, mostly because Russia under the request of three Opec + is likely to make production decision, although the production quantity is not big, but also let oil prices a moratorium on the decline, the other is the oneself still was closed for part of the gulf of Mexico oil and gas production, It also pushes up the price of oil.

Tweets yesterday evening also introduced at present the trend of housing prices fall, consulting some of the junior partner in the United States, found that the trend of the rent is still not reduced, and the rent of the CPI and the core CPI also has a high proportion, so from the current situation in September headline CPI can indeed reduce, but the core CPI is hard to reduce may, That could lead the Fed to intensify its efforts to raise interest rates. The bottom of the risk market may not be now.

Another concern is that the end of September also represents the end of the third quarter, GDPNow today released the latest American third quarter GDP data, is very interesting though the conclusion or 0.3%, but the data is a rounded, and moves from the chart shows the trend of GDP appeared slightly upward trend. That may be the best outcome for the Fed.

Preventing rapid economic growth without triggering an overall recession. Suddenly thought of alerts, released today saw a White House says the United States congress will on Friday by a temporary government appropriations bill, but does not speak money where is used, do not know this will not add to the burden of America's deficit, after all, a senior member of Moody's analytics, has publicly said biden reign has increased instead of cutting the deficit.

28/09/2022

苹果减产带动风险市场盘后大跌 BUSD带动稳定币总市值上升

情绪还是太脆弱，虽然昨天白天纳指期货涨的不错，开盘也是高开，但是在鹰王布拉德讲话后，伴随着一系列和地缘冲突相关的问题，美股再一次重复了高开低走，乌克兰四个地区的公投结束预示着乌俄冲突不但没有走向停火反而更加矛盾加剧，短时间内估计是不会结束了，这也代表了供应链的危机依然无法解决。

北溪的泄露让已经被通胀和能源短缺折磨的欧洲人雪上加霜，短时间内欧洲的天然气价格就飙升了19%。现在已经不仅仅是风险市场的冬天，已经是肉体上的冬天了。尤其是在美元指数继续上冲的情况下，欧元的汇率已经跌破了2002年6月以来的新低，而且在十月欧元区加息前，很难有回转的可能。

另外需要注意的是，最近几天都是美联储的密集发声时间，前边的几位FOMC票委的讲话都非常的鹰派，但今天凌晨一点的卡什卡利发言却透露出担心美联储出现过度缩紧的风险，但同时卡什卡利也表现出了目前的加息政策还是要紧跟通胀的走势。因此即便是比较鸽派的发言也没有让市场得到一丝的缓解。

Risk markets tumble after hours on Apple production cut BUSD boosts Stablecoin total market value

Mood or too weak, while the nasdaq futures rose yesterday, the day is good, the opening is high, but after the eagle brad king speech, accompanied by a series of problems and geopolitical conflict, U.S. stocks again repeated high low, Ukraine four areas where a referendum to end heralds a uri instead to a cease-fire Russia conflict has more contradictory intensifies, It is estimated that it will not end in a short time, which also represents that the supply chain crisis is still unable to solve.

The Nord Stream spill has added to the woes of Europeans already suffering from inflation and energy shortages, with gas prices in Europe soaring 19% in a short period of time. It's not just winter in the risk markets, it's winter in the flesh. The euro, in particular, has fallen below its lowest level since June 2002 as the dollar index continues to rally, and is unlikely to turn around until the euro area raises interest rates in October.

In addition it is important to note that in recent days is the fed's dense voice time, several of the front of the committee vote appoint speech is very hawkish, but early this morning a little card even kali speech show fear the risk of excessive tightening in the fed, but at the same time Karsh Kali also shows the current interest rates policy is to keep up with inflation. So even the more dovish comments offered little relief.

27/09/2022

从目前的数据来看BTC最大痛点相比上周同期下降了1,000美金，变为22,000美金，但在交割前实现这个价格依然困难很大。而空多比则从0.56上升到了0.68，代表这一周内看空的投资者大量增加，不过实际上BTC的价格却没有太大的变化。未平期权也增加了1万张，总量达到了10万张，而预期资金也突破了20亿美金。

而同样的ETH的最大痛点也出现了下降，从同一环比从1,600美金降低到了1,500美金，虽然距离确实相比BTC要近一些，但四天内上涨200美金也并不容易。看来这次卖方想要赚最大痛点的钱还是难了。不过相对于BTC来说ETH的空多比虽然也有上涨，但并不算多，只是从0.35上升到0.37而已，看空的用户并不算多。

综上所述，美股开盘的第一天来看，即便是在美联储集中的输出下，纳指在闭盘时虽然还是出现了小幅的下跌，但毕竟没有继续突破新低，而且在闭盘后纳指期货的走势也有逐渐抬头的意向，如果能继续维持下去很有可能代表了投资者已经走出了美联储加息的阴影，从而BTC和ETH的走势也会更加的健康。

但对于底部言论来看，重点还是在十月份公布的九月CPI数据。从目前的预测数据中还未必能得出让美联储满意的答案，这就代表着11月初的加息依然会是75个基点为主。不过好处在于市场已经在做为此而预期了。

On current data, BTC's maximum pain point is down $1,000 from the same time last week to $22,000, but achieving that price before delivery is still very difficult. While the short ratio rose from 0.56 to 0.68, representing a large increase in bearish investors during the week, the price of BTC actually did not change much. The number of open options increased by 10,000, bringing the total to 100,000, and the expected funds exceeded $2 billion.

The maximum pain point of the same ETH also decreased, from $1,600 to $1,500 in the same quarter. Although the distance is indeed closer than that of BTC, it is not easy to increase by $200 in four days. It looks like the seller is having a hard time making the most of the pain. However, compared with BTC, ETH's short ratio has also increased, but it is not much, just from 0.35 to 0.37, the bearish users are not too many.

To sum up, the market opened on the first day of the term, even under the fed's focus output, while the Nasdaq in closed set still appeared a slight decline, but after all, no continue to break through the low, and after the closing of the Nasdaq futures trend also have intention to gradually rise, if can continue are likely to represent the investors have walked out of the shadow of the fed to raise interest rates, As a result, the trend of BTC and ETH will be healthier.

But for the bottom line, the focus is on September CPI data released in October. The Fed is unlikely to be satisfied with the current forecasts, which means a 75-basis-point rate hike in early November will remain the main one. But the upside is that markets are already anticipating it.

27/09/2022

随着BTC流动性的降低，带来的必然结果还是长期持有的筹码在继续的增加，而且和总流通量的占比也在向着高点冲刺，目前的差距已经不大了，这就说明了持仓超过半年的持币者对于当前的价格几乎是不干兴趣，换手的主要还是当前的争端价格，所以这也会致使BTC的价格很难会出现大幅度的下跌。

另外就是从情绪面来看，虽然纳指依然没有回升的趋势，但是BTC和ETH看空的情绪越来越淡化，也许是受到即将到来的交割日影响，不论是BTC还是ETH都似乎在向看多移动，但按照目前的价格走势来看，BTC达到最大痛点的概率还是太低了，而ETH虽然更靠近一些，但差距也未必是这四天就可以追上的。

With the loss of the BTC liquidity, or the necessary outcome of a long-held chips continue to increase, but also in and the proportion of total circulation towards high sprint, the gap has not, which means the position more than half a year's cash for the current price is almost not interested, in hand is mainly the current dispute over the price, So it will be difficult for the price of BTC to fall significantly.

Another is from the emotional side, while the Nasdaq is still not rebound trend, but the BTC and ETH, less and less bearish mood may be affected by the upcoming delivery day, neither BTC or ETH seems to move in to see more, but according to the current price trends, BTC maximum pain points of probability is too low, Although ETH is closer, the gap may not be caught up in these four days.

27/09/2022

而相对于抛压来说，反而是从交易所的提现数据出现了上升的趋势。BTC和ETH都出现了转出提现大于抛压的情况，看来近期比较强硬的价格还是使得不少的投资者继续购买来博弈币市目前已经处于了底部区间。不过从目前的情况来说，只要是纳指止跌，币市在下一次公布CPI数据前还是会回归震荡的趋势。

所以从交易所的存量数据来看，提现占回主导的BTC和ETH都出现了库存减少的趋势，尤其是BTC，在加息后交易所的存量就处于缓慢上升的状态，虽然对于价格走势还没有出现太大的影响，但毕竟存量越多相对来说危险性就越大，而本身就处于存量高位的ETH也可以通过不断的减持来降低一次性砸盘的风险。

And relative to selling pressure, but the withdrawal data from the exchange appeared a rising trend. BTC and ETH have turned out to withdraw more than the selling pressure, it seems that the recent relatively tough price or make many investors continue to buy the game coin market has been at the bottom of the range. However, from the current situation, as long as it is to stop falling, the currency market will return to the trend of shock before the next release of CPI data.

Therefore, from the stock data of the exchange, BTC and ETH, which are dominated by withdrawal, showed a trend of inventory reduction. Especially BTC, the stock of the exchange was in a state of slow rise after the interest rate increase, although it has not had too much impact on the price trend, after all, the more stock, the more dangerous it is. And ETH itself is in the high stock can also reduce the risk of a one-time hit through continuous reduction.

27/09/2022

但目前流通量惨淡的情况不但体现在场内资金的逃离，即便是没有离场的资金现在也保持着观望的形势，同样也是从今天早晨八点的数据来看，USDT的购买力情况还是较强，甚至高出了上两周的最高值，看来欧洲和亚洲的投资者对于当前的价格还是比较满意，而USDC所代表的美国投资者购买力几乎又是工作日的最低值。

这其实从转移到交易所的BTC和ETH的抛压中也可以发现，和资金量一样，虽然相比周末都出现了上升的趋势，但和上周的同期数据对比，不论是BTC还是ETH都没有出现太多抛压的迹象，这也说明了主流资产的流通量在进一步的下跌，从某种层面来说，这也是BTC和ETH跟涨不跟跌的原因，毕竟卖的人都在大幅减少。

But currently in circulation dismal situation not only reflected in internal capital fled, even didn't leave money now also maintained a wait-and-see situation, also from the point of data at eight o 'clock this morning, the purchasing power of the USDT case is strong, even higher than the highest in the last two weeks, it seems investors in Europe and Asia for the current prices are still satisfied, The USDC, which represents the purchasing power of American investors, is again almost at its weekday low.

It from transfer to exchange the BTC and ETH can also be found in the selling pressure, and there is the same, although compared to weekend appeared rising trend, but with the same period of last week's data contrast, both BTC and ETH did not appear too many signs of selling, it also shows the mainstream assets turnover in further decline, at some level, This is also the reason why BTC and ETH do not follow the rise and fall, after all, the people selling are greatly reduced.

27/09/2022

而美元指数上升带来的另一个问题就是币市资金在持续的流出，从截止到今天早晨八点的数据来看，USDT的市值少量增加了100万美金，这也说明了更多欧洲和亚洲的投资者在继续保持观望，而代表了美国资金的USDC则在市值减持的路上越走越远，之前还在打算和USDT一争高下，现在的差距反而在逐渐的拉大。

作为新秀势力的BUSD虽然没有出现市值减少的迹象，但水平的走势也说明了即便是Binance免手续费的号召力也逐渐的让市场的资金冷淡下来，毕竟最近BTC和ETH的价格看起来就像是一条直线。而作为ETH现货杠杆来使用的DAI，目前的依然再保持着小范围的浮动，但总体来说比较稳定的价格还是让DAI的市值上升。

从总的主力稳定币市值来看，毫无疑问再美债都出现大量离场的时候，币市也难以独善其身。尤其是美国人占为主力使用的USDC更是目前总市值降低的原因。最近几乎每天都是1至2亿美金的减持。而稳定币市值的减少则代表了市场内的信心被消弱，不过相对较好的在于目前的主力的USDT购买情绪依然比较充沛。

And the dollar index rose another problem is money, money continues to flow, from eight until this morning, USDT the market value of a small amount of added $1 million, it also suggests that the more investors in Europe and Asia continue to wait and see, and represents the U.S. capital USDC is in the way of reduction of value is more walk more far, I was planning to compete with USDT before, but now the gap is gradually widening.

BUSD, an upstart, does not show signs of falling in market value, but the trend shows that even Binance's free fee appeal is gradually cooling the market. After all, the prices of BTC and ETH seem to be a straight line recently. However, DAI, which is used as the leverage of ETH spot, is still floating in a small range, but generally speaking, the relatively stable price still makes the market value of DAI rise.

Judging from the total main stable coin market value, there is no doubt that the currency market is not immune to the large number of departures from the US Treasury. In particular, USDC, which is mainly used by Americans, is the reason for the current decline in total market value. There have been almost daily sell-offs of $100 million to $200 million recently. The decrease of stable coin market value represents the weakening of confidence in the market, but the relatively good thing is that the current main USDT buying sentiment is still relatively abundant.

27/09/2022

按照这样的趋势走下去，最后的四天中未必不能实现均价低于10美金的收盘，这对于降低CPI有很大的帮助，毕竟有数据显示油价每降低10美金，CPI会降低大概0.4%。而另一个可能会对CPI有较大作用的就是住房的数据，根据美国劳工部的统计来看，六，七，八三个月是普遍寻求租房的高峰，而从九月开始就会下降。

这也意味着整体租房的用户对于新续约的需求降低，从而可能会降低房租带来的CPI。另一方面就是会在今天晚上公布的房价指数从预期的数据来看确实也延续了继续下跌的可能，美国的房价从今年的三月就开始出现了下跌的趋势，但依然不能为CPI提供大幅的减值，尤其是房价传导到房租市场还需要较长的一段时间。

反而是美元指数没有什么太好纠结的，即便是每天都出现新高，也只是对于美联储继续加息的预期，不过最近开始带蹦的不但是欧元和日元，甚至还出现英镑，这是倒逼全球主要经济国家都要加息的节奏，因为即便是日本央行这种卖美债买日元的举措在连连走高的美元面前也只是起到暂缓的作用，今天可能又会破145。

随着美元指数的上升，美债反而又出现了大量的抛售行为，尤其是美联储在九月份的缩表更是让本身就出于流通性缺乏的美债市场雪上加霜。而另一方面中长期美债纷纷都走出了近些年的新高，但却依然无法吸引资金的购买，尤其是20年的美债收益已经突破了4%。这也说明了很多人在亏损逃离美债。

If this trend continues, it is unlikely that the average price will close below $10 in the last four days, which will greatly help reduce the CPI. After all, according to data, every $10 decrease in oil price will reduce the CPI by about 0.4%. Another likely contributor to the CPI is housing data. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, June, July and August saw a peak in the general search for rentals, and the decline began in September.

This also means that overall rental users have a lower demand for new renewals, which may lower the CPI caused by rent. On the other hand is the index will be announced tonight from the expected data did for may continue to fall, from this year's American house prices began to fell in March, but still can't provide the CPI sharply the impairment of especially housing to rent markets need a longer period of time.

On the contrary, the dollar index is not too hard to worry about. Even if it makes new highs every day, it is just the expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. But recently, not only the euro and the yen, but also the pound have started to jump, which is forcing major economies in the world to raise interest rates. Because even the BOJ's move to sell Treasuries and buy yen is only a temporary reprieve from the surging dollar, it could break 145 again today.

As the dollar index rose, there was heavy selling in Treasuries, especially since the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction in September added to the liquidity shortage in the Treasury market. On the other hand, the medium - and long-term US bonds have gone out of the new high in recent years, but still can not attract funds to buy, especially the 20-year US bond yield has exceeded 4%. It also shows that many people are running away from US debt at a loss.

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