Seazen Resources 新城晉峰金融集團

Seazen Resources 新城晉峰金融集團 The Group has two licensed corporations to carry out types 1, 4 and 9 regulated activities supervised under the Securities and Futures Ordinance.

Seazen Resources Capital Group Limited and its subsidiaries (the “Group”) are principally engaged in security brokerage and underwriting services, asset management services, and money lending services in Hong Kong since 2012. Seazen Resources Capital Group Limited and its subsidiaries (the“Group”) have been principally engaged in securities brokerage and underwriting services, asset management ser

vices, and money lending services in Hong Kong since 2012. The money lending business mainly focuses in providing mortgages, personal loans, and corporate loans to small to medium-sized companies in Hong Kong. Our parent company, Seazen Group Limited (01030.HK) is an investment and operation firm dedicated to building a happy life. Its business covers residential development, commercial development, commercial operation management, assisted living community development and operation, equity investment and asset management. To date, Seazen Group Limited has set foot in Hong Kong, the United States and other regions, aiming to provide multiple product lines through full life cycle for customers and fulfill the enterprise mission of “making happiness simple”.

Weekly Market Update – 7/6/2023Local Market UpdateCaixin China’s services PMI rose 0.7 ppts mom to 57.1 in May, which wa...
09/06/2023

Weekly Market Update – 7/6/2023

Local Market Update

Caixin China’s services PMI rose 0.7 ppts mom to 57.1 in May, which was higher than the market’s expected 55.2. It was mainly driven by the Labour Day holiday. At present, the market is waiting to see the sustainability of consumption growth in the mainland and whether policies to stimulate consumption will be introduced soon to boost economic growth. In addition, there will be a 618 shopping festival in the mainland this month, and it is expected that e-commerce consumption will increase, which will benefit related industries.

Hong Kong and China markets rebounded from recent lows on expectations of a pause in US interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, market sentiment improved on a private survey that showed services activity in China accelerated in May, driven by stronger growth in new orders. Property stocks pulled back from recent rally, spurred by hopes of more supportive policies. However, new energy sector may outperform as the State Council continues to optimize the new energy vehicle purchase tax reduction policy. China's yuan has skidded to six-month lows against the dollar and analysts say it could weaken further as investors fret over a bumpy pandemic recovery in the mainland. The HSI may trade in the range of 18,000 to 19,500 levels in the short term.

Overseas Market Update

According to US Institute for Supply Management non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), the business activity in the US service sector continued to expand, albeit at a more moderate pace than in April, with the ISM Services PMI declining to 50.3 in May from 51.9 in April. This reading came in below the market expectation of 51.5. The weaker-than-expected economic report added to concerns over the slowing economy, while increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve could hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting in June.

US equities ended lower amid weaker-than-expected economic data. Financials posted bigger losses, as banks fell on news that regulators are considering tightening regulations for large lenders, including raising capital requirements by around 20%. The defensive sectors such as communication services, utilities and health care held up relatively better. It is expected that energy stocks may outperform on stronger crude oil prices following the announcement of further production cuts from Saudi Arabia. The US Treasury 30-year bond yield traded near 3.89%, while the 10-year note yield was flat at 3.69%. The S&P 500 may trade in the range of 4,100 to 4,300 levels in the short term.

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(Investors should note that all investments have risks. This post is not involved in any investment advice and marketing. The contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. You are advised to exercise caution. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents here, you should obtain independent professional advice.)

每週市場更新 – 2023年6月7日本地市場更新受五一勞動節的推動，財新中國服務業PMI在5月份環比上升0.7個百分點至57.1，高於市場預期的55.2。目前，市場正等待着觀察內地消費增長的可持續性以及是否會很快推出刺激消費的政策以促進經濟...
09/06/2023

每週市場更新 – 2023年6月7日

本地市場更新

受五一勞動節的推動，財新中國服務業PMI在5月份環比上升0.7個百分點至57.1，高於市場預期的55.2。目前，市場正等待着觀察內地消費增長的可持續性以及是否會很快推出刺激消費的政策以促進經濟增長。此外，本月內地將舉行618購物節，預計電商消費將增加，相關行業將受惠。

受到預期美國利率停止上調的預期影響，香港和中國市場從近期低點反彈。與此同時，市場情緒在一份私人調查顯示，中國5月份服務業活動加速，新訂單增長在更爲強勁的推動下得到改善。房地產股從近期的漲勢中回調，因爲市場憧憬該行業需要更多支持性政策的推動。隨着國務院繼續優化新能源汽車購置稅減免政策，新能源領域可能會表現較出色。中國人民幣兌美元跌至六個月低點，分析師表示，隨着投資者對內地疫情恢復的擔憂加劇，人民幣可能會進一步走弱。恆生指數短期內可能在18,000至19,500點之間波動。

海外市場更新

根據美國供應管理學會非製造業採購經理指數（PMI），美國服務業的商業活動繼續擴張，儘管速度較4月份有所放緩，ISM服務業PMI從4月的51.9下降至5月的50.3。這一讀數低於市場預期的51.5。經濟報告低於預期，加劇了對經濟放緩的擔憂，同時增加了聯邦儲備在6月政策會議上按兵不動的可能性。

美國股市在經濟數據低於預期的情況下收低。由於消息稱監管機構正在考慮加強對大型銀行的監管，包括將資本要求提高約20%，金融股損失較大。與此同時，通信服務、公用事業和醫療保健等防禦性板塊相對較爲抗跌。預計能源股可能受益於沙特阿拉伯宣佈進一步減產後原油價格的上漲。美國國債30年期收益率接近3.89%，10年期票據收益率持平於3.69%。標普500指數短期內可能在4,100至4,300點之間波動。

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（投資涉及風險，投資者應注意，所有投資均涉及風險。本文不涉及任何投資建議和營銷，內容未經香港任何監管機構審閱。投資者應謹慎行事，如果您對本文的任何內容有疑問，請咨詢專業人士之意見。）

#高級手捲雪茄 - 新興資產類別，抵禦市場波動奢侈雪茄市場開始被視為一種新興的另類投資產品，可以抵禦市場波動。儘管新冠病毒和經濟衰退導致大部分資產類別價格下跌，但雪茄價格仍在飆升。全球奢侈雪茄市場規模在2020年的估值為116.1億美元，...
28/04/2023

#高級手捲雪茄 - 新興資產類別，抵禦市場波動

奢侈雪茄市場開始被視為一種新興的另類投資產品，可以抵禦市場波動。儘管新冠病毒和經濟衰退導致大部分資產類別價格下跌，但雪茄價格仍在飆升。全球奢侈雪茄市場規模在2020年的估值為116.1億美元，預計從2021年至2028年的複合年增長率（CAGR）為7.2%。

古巴被公認為高品質雪茄的集中地，大部分高級手捲雪茄都產自此地。Habanos S.A.是古巴國有企業，也是所有古巴雪茄的唯一出口商，包括知名品牌如Cohiba（科希巴）、Montecristo（蒙特克里斯托）、Partagas（帕塔加斯）和Romeo y Julieta（羅密歐與朱麗葉）。2022年，該公司報告收入為5.45億美元。公司銷售產品覆蓋超過140個國家，其中最大市場為西班牙、法國、德國、中國和瑞士。以地區劃分，歐洲是其最大的市場，占銷售額的53.7%，而亞太地區占19.3%，其中中國是主要驅動力。2020年，中國已成為古巴雪茄的全球最大市場之一。

在未來，中國雪茄市場預計將以4倍的速度增長，從目前的900萬人增長到3600萬人，使其成為未來幾年最具潛力的雪茄市場之一。不斷增長的中產階級規模和經濟，與西方相比較寬鬆的公共和立法以及在社交場合將雪茄作為禮物贈送所附加的聲望都是該地區銷售額激增的原因。此外，與世界其他地區類似，社交媒體的增長已經催生了一個由雪茄愛好者組成的年輕吸煙群體，他們在新冠期間對於更高雅的愛好，如雪茄、威士忌和手錶產生了濃厚興趣。

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#新城晉峰 #資產管理 #證券 #投資攻略 #固定收益
（投資涉及風險，投資者應注意，所有投資均涉及風險。本文不涉及任何投資建議和營銷，內容未經香港任何監管機構審閱。投資者應謹慎行事，如果您對本文的任何內容有疑問，請咨詢專業人士之意見。）

Premium Hand-Rolled Ci**rs - An emerging asset class shielded from market volatilityThe luxury cigar market is considere...
28/04/2023

Premium Hand-Rolled Ci**rs - An emerging asset class shielded from market volatility

The luxury cigar market is considered as an emerging class of alternative investment that can shield the market volatility, with cigar prices soaring despite the price slump of broad asset classes amid Covid-19 impact and economic downturn. The global luxury cigar market size was valued at USD 11.61 billion in 2020 and is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% from 2021 to 2028.

Cuba is well recognized as the epicentre of high-quality ci**rs, where most premium hand-rolled ci**rs are made. Habanos S.A., Cuba’s state owned sole exporter of all Cuban ci**rs including renowned brands such as Cohiba, Montecristo, Partagas and Romeo y Juliet reported revenues of US$545 million for 2022. The Company sells to more than 140 countries, and named Spain, France, Germany, China and Switzerland as its top markets. As a region, Europe is its largest market by far, accounting for 53.7% of sales, whilst the Asia Pacific region accounts for 19.3% of sales with China as the main driver at the back of China becoming Habanos’ single largest market in 2020.

The Chinese cigar market is expected to record fastest growth by 4 times from the current 9 million people to 36 million people, making it one of the most promising cigar markets in coming years. A rising economy and middle class, a relatively relaxed public and legislative view of smoking when compared to the west, and the prestige attached to ci**rs when given as gifts in the social networking setting are all contributing factors to the sharp rise in sales in the region. In addition, similar to the rest of the world, the growth of social media has created a younger smoking class made of cigar enthusiasts, whose interests in finer hobbies including ci**rs, whiskeys and watches were incubated during the Covid period.

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#新城晉峰 #資產管理 #證券 #投資攻略 #固定收益
(Investors should note that all investments have risks. This post is not involved in any investment advice and marketing. The contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. You are advised to exercise caution. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents here, you should obtain independent professional advice.)

Local Market UpdatePremier Li Qiang reassured global political and business leaders that China remains committed to open...
31/03/2023

Local Market Update

Premier Li Qiang reassured global political and business leaders that China remains committed to opening up its market to the world and strives to create a “first-class business environment” for foreign investors when meeting with overseas representatives attending the annual meeting of the China Development Forum in Beijing on Monday.

Hong Kong stocks rebounded as Alibaba Group Holding powered a rally in Chinese technology companies after the e-commerce market leader unveiled a business reorganization to boost profits and add value to shareholders. The reorganization announcement came a day after co-founder Jack Ma returned to mainland China for the first time after about a year of travel overseas. The HSI gained 2.1% to 20,192.40 at the close of Wednesday trading, bringing the advance this month to 2.1%. The Tech Index also climbed 2.5%. China's CSI 300 benchmark, meanwhile, edged up 0.2%, as investors awaited more data to gauge the country's economic recovery after it dropped stringent zero-COVID curbs and reopened its economy. Investors are also closely monitoring the China manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) due on Friday for more evidence that the economic recovery is on track.

Overseas Market Update

U.S. treasuries rose as investors awaited remarks from Federal Reserve officials and economic releases this week for clues on monetary policy. Swaps traders have priced in about a 50% probability the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point at its next meeting, with plans to ease thereafter.

US equities slipped this week as rising bond yields and a calmer banking sector led mega cap technology stocks to give up some recent gains. Large tech groups had been some of the biggest beneficiaries of the financial sector turmoil that started with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month, but the sector has lost ground in recent days. On Tuesday, technology stocks were among the laggards of the broader market, which typically happens during periods of higher interest rates. So far this month, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has added nearly 1.9% and the S&P 500 Information Technology Sector has gained about 5.2%.
Crude oil rose 1.2% to $73.72 per barrel. Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $26,920. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 3.56%. European stocks were mildly positive, with the German DAX and Paris CAC adding 0.1%. The London FTSE crept up 0.2% to close out the trading day.

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#新城晉峰 #資產管理 #證券 #投資攻略 #固定收益
(Investors should note that all investments have risks. This post is not involved in any investment advice and marketing. The contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. You are advised to exercise caution. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents here, you should obtain independent professional advice.)

本地市場更新李強總理在周一北京舉行的中國發展高層論壇年會上向與會的國際政商界代表保證，中國將繼續向世界開放市場，努力為外國投資者創造“一流的營商環境”。香港股市反彈，阿里巴巴集團控股有限公司推動中國科技公司大幅上漲，這家電子商務市場領導者公...
31/03/2023

本地市場更新

李強總理在周一北京舉行的中國發展高層論壇年會上向與會的國際政商界代表保證，中國將繼續向世界開放市場，努力為外國投資者創造“一流的營商環境”。

香港股市反彈，阿里巴巴集團控股有限公司推動中國科技公司大幅上漲，這家電子商務市場領導者公佈了一項業務重組計劃，以提高利潤並增加股東價值。重組計劃的公佈是在公司聯合創始人馬雲結束約一年的海外旅行後首次回到中國大陸的次日。截至週三收盤，恆生指數上漲2.1%，至20,192.40點，本月漲幅為2.1%。科技指數也上漲了2.5%。與此同時，中國的CSI 300指數小幅上漲0.2%，投資者在等待更多數據以評估中國在調整新冠政策並重新開放經濟後的經濟復甦。投資者還密切關注週五公佈的中國製造業採購經理人指數（PMI），以尋求更多證據證明經濟復甦正處於正軌。

海外市場更新

美國國債上漲，投資者等待美聯儲官員的講話和本週的經濟數據以尋求有關貨幣政策的線索。遠期利率互換交易員對美聯儲在下次會議上將利率提高25個基點的可能性預測為50%，計劃在此後逐步降息。

本周美股下滑，由於債券收益率上升和銀行業務平穩，使大型科技股回吐了近期的部分漲幅。本月初矽谷銀行倒閉引發的金融市場動盪中，大型科技集團一直是最大的受益者，但近日該領域已出現下滑。週二，科技股在整個市場的表現嚴重滯後，這通常發生在利率較高的時期。本月迄今，以科技股為主的納斯達克綜合指數上漲了近1.9%，標準普爾500信息技術部門上漲了約5.2%。
原油價格上漲1.2%，至每桶73.72美元。比特幣下跌0.2%，至26,920美元。 10年期美國國債收益率上漲3個基點，至3.56%。歐洲股市表現溫和，德國DAX指數和巴黎CAC指數均上漲0.1%。倫敦金融時報股市指數小幅上漲0.2%

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#新城晉峰 #資產管理 #證券 #投資攻略 #固定收益
（投資涉及風險，投資者應注意，所有投資均涉及風險。本文不涉及任何投資建議和營銷，內容未經香港任何監管機構審閱。投資者應謹慎行事，如果您對本文的任何內容有疑問，請咨詢專業人士之意見。）

Weekly Market Update – 23/3/2023Local Market UpdateThe People’s Bank of China (PBOC) held its one-year LPR at 3.65%, kee...
24/03/2023

Weekly Market Update – 23/3/2023

Local Market Update

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) held its one-year LPR at 3.65%, keeping monetary conditions largely accommodative as the country moves to support a fledgling economic recovery and stem losses in the yuan, while the five-year LPR, which is used to determine mortgage rates, was maintained at 4.30%. Both lending rates were at their lowest in the past two decades. Besides, China unexpectedly cut its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by 25 basis points last week, giving local lenders more cash they can use for operations. This allows banks to lower interest rates, which, coupled with consistent liquidity injections by the PBOC, is expected to significantly loosen monetary conditions.

Hong Kong and China markets rebounded from recent lows amid easing fears of contagion throughout the global banking system, as investors weighed a slew of market interventions to restore confidence lost in the recent turbulence in global financial markets. Tourism and consumer-related stocks rose on the news that China lately restored a number of cross-border airlines. Financial stocks recovered after Hong Kong's leader John Lee said the local banking sector is resilient and properly regulated. Internet companies may further outperform on signs of further policy easing, with gaming giant Bilibili up 9.2%, after China's online gaming regulator granted licenses to 27 foreign games in March. The HSI may find support at 18,800 and resistance at its 50-day MA of 20,800 levels in the short term.

Overseas Market Update

Sales of existing homes in the U.S. surged 14.5% last month from January to a seasonally adjusted 4.58 million units, higher than the forecast of 4.2 million units and ending a 12-month slide that knocked the nation’s housing market as homebuyers seized on a modest drop in mortgage rates. Still, sales sank 22.6% last month from a year ago, a sign that many would-be homebuyers remain priced out of the market after years of price increases and sharply higher mortgage rates than a year ago.

US equities staged a relief rally as investors hoped that the worst of the recent banking turmoil had passed while expecting a more cautious approach on interest rates from the Federal Reserve going forward. Energy stocks rose as oil prices continued to improve amid a weakening US dollar. Consumer discretionary stocks followed suit, while financial stocks also posted notable gains, driven by a further recovery in banking stocks. Electric vehicle markers may further outperform with Tesla surging 7.8% following reports that the company is poised to report robust retail sales for the first quarter in China. The US Treasury 30-year bond yield traded near 3.74% while the 10-year note yield traded near 3.61%. The S&P 500 may trade between its support at 3,800 and resistance 4,070 levels in the short term.

每週市場更新 – 23/3/2023本地市場更新中國人民銀行 (PBOC) 將其一年期 LPR 維持在 3.65%，隨著國家採取行動支持剛剛起步的經濟復甦並遏制人民幣貶值，貨幣環境基本保持寬鬆，而用於確定抵押貸款利率的五年期 LPR，則維持...
24/03/2023

每週市場更新 – 23/3/2023

本地市場更新

中國人民銀行 (PBOC) 將其一年期 LPR 維持在 3.65%，隨著國家採取行動支持剛剛起步的經濟復甦並遏制人民幣貶值，貨幣環境基本保持寬鬆，而用於確定抵押貸款利率的五年期 LPR，則維持在4.30%。 兩項貸款利率均處於過去二十年的最低水平。 此外，中國上週出乎意料地將銀行存款準備金率 (RRR) 下調了 25 個基點，為當地銀行提供了更多可用於運營的現金。 這允許銀行降低利率，再加上中國人民銀行持續注入流動性，預計將顯著放鬆貨幣環境。

隨著投資者權衡一系列市場干預措施以恢復在近期全球金融市場動盪中失去的信心，香港和中國市場從近期低點反彈，對全球銀行體系蔓延的擔憂有所緩解。 旅遊和消費相關的股票因中國最近恢復了一些跨境航空公司的消息而上漲。 在香港特首李家超表示本地銀行業具有彈性並受到適當監管後，金融股回升。 互聯網公司可能會因政策進一步放鬆的跡象而進一步跑贏大市，在中國網絡遊戲監管機構 3 月份向 27 款外國遊戲授予牌照後，遊戲巨頭嗶哩嗶哩上漲 9.2%。 恆指短線在 18,800 點左右找到支撐，而阻力則在 50 天線 20,800 點。

海外市場更新

上月美國現房銷量較 1 月飆升 14.5%，經季節性因素調整後為 458 萬套，高於預期的 420 萬套，因購房者抓住了抵押貸款利率適度下降的機會，結束了連續 12 個月的下滑，該下滑對美國房地產市場造成了衝擊。 儘管如此，上個月的銷售額仍比一年前下降了 22.6%，這表明在多年的價格上漲和抵押貸款利率比一年前大幅上漲之後，許多潛在的購房者仍然無法購買。

由於投資者希望近期銀行業動蕩的最壞的時期已經過去，同時預計美聯儲未來將對利率採取更加謹慎的態度，因此美國股市出現了令人欣慰的反彈。 由於美元疲軟，油價繼續上漲，能源股上漲。 非必需消費品股緊隨其後，而在銀行股進一步復甦的推動下，金融股也大幅上漲。 電動汽車市場可能會進一步跑贏大盤，特斯拉股價飆升 7.8%，此前有報導稱該公司有望公佈中國第一季度強勁的零售銷售數據。 美國國債 30 年期債券收益率接近 3.74%，而 10 年期國債收益率接近 3.61%。 標準普爾 500 指數短期內預料在 3,800 點找到支撐位，而阻力位則 4,070 點之間交易。

Weekly Market Update – 15/3/2023Local Market UpdateChina’s economic activity rebounded moderately in the first two month...
17/03/2023

Weekly Market Update – 15/3/2023

Local Market Update

China’s economic activity rebounded moderately in the first two months of the year, with industrial production and retail sales growth falling short of market expectations. Industrial output in January-February rose 2.4% yoy, lower than the 2.8% growth expected. Retail sales increased 3.5% yoy in the first two months, also lower than the 4.0% growth expected. China’s fixed-asset investment rose 5.5% yoy in January-February, higher than the 4.5% expected and the 5.1% increase recorded in 2022. China’s surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas stood at 5.6% in February, higher than the 5.5% rate in January.

Hong Kong and China equities rebounded from recent lows, tracking a relief rally on Wall Street after US inflation data delivered no nasty surprises. Also, helping boost sentiment was data on China's economic activity that picked up in the first two months of the year due to a recovery in consumption and infrastructure investment and signs the beleaguered property sector is starting to recover. Technology shares led the rebound while financial shares underperformed as fears of contagion in the sector after the collapse of two regional US lenders still lingered. Shares of gold miners may perform relatively better as gold prices held above the US$1,900 level amid expectations that the pace of rate hike may slow. The HSI is expected to find support at its 100-day MA of 19,200 level and resistance at 50-day MA of 21,000 level in the short term.

Overseas Market Update

US consumer price index increased 0.4% in February, putting the annual inflation rate at 6%, with both readings in line with market estimates. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.5% in February and 5.5% yoy. The monthly reading was slightly ahead of the 0.4% estimate, but the annual level was in line. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a modest 25-basis-point interest rate hike at its policy meeting next week.

US equities rebounded from recent lows as fears of a systemic risk in the financial system eased after US President Joe Biden vowed the crisis would be contained and reassured the safety of the US banking system. Meanwhile, cooling inflation data also provided some relief to the markets. Communication services led the gains, with Facebook parent company Meta Platforms surging 7.2% after announcing 10,000 job cuts, making it the first big tech firm starting a second round of mass layoffs. Financials recovered some losses it suffered in the previous sessions triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, with First Republic Bank rebounding 27% after witnessing a steep selloff during this banking crisis. Information technology may perform relatively better on easing yields. The US Treasury 30-year bond yield traded near 3.76% and the 10-year note yield traded near 3.64%. The S&P 500 may trade between its support at 3,900 and resistance at 50-day MA of 4,000 levels in the short term.

每週市場更新 – 15/3/2023 本地市場更新 今年前兩個月，中國國內經濟活動溫和反彈，工業生產和零售銷售增長低於市場預期。1-2月工業產出同比增長2.4%，低於預期2.8%的增長。前兩個月零售額同比增長3.5%，也低於預期的4.0%的...
17/03/2023

每週市場更新 – 15/3/2023

本地市場更新

今年前兩個月，中國國內經濟活動溫和反彈，工業生產和零售銷售增長低於市場預期。1-2月工業產出同比增長2.4%，低於預期2.8%的增長。前兩個月零售額同比增長3.5%，也低於預期的4.0%的增長。1-2月中國固定資產投資同比增長5.5%，高於預期的4.5%和2022年的5.1%。中國2月份城鎮地區調查失業率爲5.6%，高於1月份的5.5%。

香港和中國股市從近期低點反彈，在美國通脹數據沒有差於預期之後，華爾街出現了緩解反彈。此外，由於消費和基礎設施投資以及陷入困境的房地產行業的復甦，中國經濟活動數據在今年前兩個月有所回升，這有助於提振市場情緒。科技股領漲，而金融股表現不佳，因爲對美國兩家地區性銀行倒閉後該行業蔓延的擔憂仍然存在。黃金礦商的股價可能表現相對較好，因爲金價保持在1,900美元上方，同時市埸預期加息步伐可能會放緩。預計短期內恆指將在100日均線19,200點至50日均線21,000之間徘徊。

海外市場動態

美國2月份消費者物價指數上漲0.4%，年通脹率爲6%，兩項數據均符合市場預期。不包括波動的食品和能源價格，2月份核心CPI上漲0.5%，同比上漲5.5%。月度讀數略高於0.4%的預期，但年度水平符合。 市埸普遍預計美聯儲將在下週的政策會議上適度加息25個基點。

美國總統拜登誓言危機將得到控制，並保證美國銀行體系的安全，對金融體系系統性風險的擔憂有所緩解，美國股市從近期低點反彈。與此同時，降溫的通脹數據也爲市場提供了一些緩解。通信服務領漲，Facebook母公司Meta Platforms在宣佈裁員10,000人後飆升7.2%，使其成爲第一家開始第二輪大規模裁員的大型科技公司。金融股收復了前幾個交易日因硅谷銀行倒閉而遭受的一些損失，第一共和國銀行在經歷了這次銀行業危機期間的大幅拋售後反彈了27%。信息技術板塊在放寬聯儲利率的預期方面可能表現相對較好。美國30年期國債收益率接近3.76%，10年期國債收益率接近3.64%。標準普爾500指數可能在短期內在其100日均線3,900點找到支持，而阻力則在20日均線4,000點。

Weekly Market Update – 8/3/2023Local Market UpdateChina's exports for the January-February period were down 6.8% yoy aft...
10/03/2023

Weekly Market Update – 8/3/2023

Local Market Update

China's exports for the January-February period were down 6.8% yoy after a 9.9% annual fall seen in December, pointing to continued weakness in demand for the country's products. Imports dropped by 10.2% for the first two months after a 7.5% annual fall last year, also partly reflecting weak foreign demand as the country brings in parts and materials from abroad for many of its exports. Besides, the National Party Congress (NPC) kicked off with Premier Li Keqiang announcing an increase in military spending by 7.2% to 1.55 trillion yuan and modest economic growth target of "about 5%". However, Chinese economic officials expressed confidence they can meet this year’s growth target by generating 12 million new jobs and encouraging consumer spending.

Hong Kong and China equities edged down as sentiment remained subdued after the release of trade data that showed continued downward trajectory. Comments from new foreign minister on geopolitical issues and sanctions compounded the risk-off sentiment. Chinese technology sector was depressed as the US Congress is set to approve a bipartisan bill that would enable the president to ban applications and products that pose national security threats. Financials also fell as China will set up a new national financial regulatory body, replacing its banking and insurance watchdog, as part of a government overhaul that includes plans for a national data bureau. However, Cathay Pacific Airways may lead the sector to perform relatively better as the carrier reported a 2022 loss at the low end of forecasts. The HSI is expected to find support at its 100-day MA of 19,200 level and resistance at 50-day MA of 21,000 level in the short term.

Overseas Market Update

The US services sector grew steadily in February, with new orders and employment rising to more than one-year highs, suggesting the economy continued to expand in the first quarter. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing PMI dipped to 55.1 from 55.2 in January. The negligible drop in the PMI suggested that the economy is still resilient, though risks of a downturn are rising.

US equities remained subdued following hawkish speech from the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He reinforced the need for further tightening to bring inflation down to the central bank’s target of 2%, and indicated that interest rates may peak higher than previously anticipated as recent stronger-than-expected economic data calls for a restrictive monetary policy. The probability of rate hike by 50 bps in March reached above 70%. Economically sensitive financials led the declines, followed by rate-sensitive real estate. Materials and energy were also the worst performing sectors as commodity prices weakened in response to a stronger US dollar. However, less rate-sensitive healthcare and pharmaceuticals may perform relatively better. The US Treasury 2-year bond yield traded above 5% while the 10-year note yield traded to around 4%. The S&P 500 may trade between its support at its 100-day MA of 3,900 and resistance at 20-day MA of 4,100 levels in the short term.

每周市場更新 – 8/3/2023本地市場更新中國1月至2 月的出口在12月出現9.9%的年度下降之後同比下降6.8%，需求持續疲軟。今年前兩個月進口下降了10.2%，去年則下降了7.5%，這也部分反映了外國需求疲軟，因為許多出口材料的原材...
10/03/2023

每周市場更新 – 8/3/2023

本地市場更新

中國1月至2 月的出口在12月出現9.9%的年度下降之後同比下降6.8%，需求持續疲軟。今年前兩個月進口下降了10.2%，去年則下降了7.5%，這也部分反映了外國需求疲軟，因為許多出口材料的原材料也都來自國外。此外，全國人民代表大會開幕，李克強總理宣布軍費增加7.2%至1.55萬億元，經濟增長目標為“5%左右”。然而，中國經濟官員表示有信心通過創造1,200萬個新工作崗位和鼓勵消費者支出來實現今年的增長目標。

香港和中國股市下跌，因貿易數據顯示持續下跌軌跡後市場情緒仍然低迷。新任外交部長對地緣政治問題和制裁的評論加劇了避險情緒。中國科技行業低迷，因為美國國會將批准一項兩黨法案，該法案將使總統能夠禁止構成國家安全威脅的應用程序和產品。金融板塊也下跌，因為中國將建立一個新的國家金融監管機構，取代其銀行和保險監管機構，作為政府改革的一部分，其中包括國家數據局的計劃。此外，國泰航空或帶動該行業表現相對較好，因為該航空公司報告2022年的虧損處於預測的低端。預計短期內恆指將在100日均線19,200點至50日均線21,000之間上下。

海外市場動態

美國2月份服務業穩步增長，新訂單和就業人數升至一年多高位，表明第一季度經濟繼續擴張。供應管理協會（ISM）非製造業PMI從1月份的55.2降至55.1。 PMI的微跌表明，儘管經濟衰退的風險正在上升，但經濟仍然具有彈性。

在美聯儲主席傑羅姆鮑威爾發表鷹派言論后，美國股市持續低迷。他強調需要進一步收緊貨幣政策，將通脹率降至央行2%的目標，並表示利率峰值可能高於此前預期，因為近期強於預期的經濟數據要求採取限制性貨幣政策。 3月份加息50個基點的概率達到70%以上。直接受經濟影響的金融股領跌，其次是利率敏感的房地產股。原材料和能源也是表現最差的行業，因為大宗商品價格因美元走強而走弱。此外，對利率不太敏感的醫療保健和藥品表現相對較好。美國國債2年期國債收益率高於5%，而10年期國債收益率則在4%左右。標準普爾500指數可能在短期內在其100日均線3,900點找到支持，而阻力則在20日均線4,100點。

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