29/05/2020
The short week turned out to be very eventful and filled with special drama, with the US President in the title role. The world is recovering from quarantine, and with it, financial markets have slowed the dash forward and began to look around, trying to find at least some fundamental confirmation of the fantastic growth of the last two months. In particular, this week, investors’ interest has shifted from an overheated technology sector, many of which are trading at historic highs, to companies from the cyclical industries, the financial sector, and small and medium-sized companies. This has a certain logic at least, in contrast to the trading of empty hopes.
As a result, S&P 500 and Dow Jones have become the heroes of the week. The first managed to overcome the mark of 3000, which has not happened since March 5, and broke the two-hundredth day average. The second overcame 25,000, the last time it happened on March 10th. But Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, lagged behind, albeit a little. Index behavior indicates bullish investors’ sentiment, which, however, is not surprising given FRS's injections. The question is how immensely FRS’s balance is actually, and will every worsening situation in the US be accompanied by new financial injections?
In general, the last week helped identify very clearly three main factors that will determine the behavior of markets in the coming weeks and months: the pace of economic recovery, the success of the invention of the vaccine, and the trade war between the US and China. And, of course, FRS’s reaction will be of great importance. In principle, in the short term, it can turn out to be more important than all other factors combined.
As for the economy, the states are gradually opening up, but it is too early to talk about successes and failures. Need time! Those indicators that were released this week are not in favor of V-recovery. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, an index demonstrating the degree of consumer confidence, reached 86.6 in May, not reaching the forecast value of 87.5, although it exceeded slightly the April figure at 86.9. A quote from “FRS’s Beige Book”, a collection of informal information and statements about the state of the economy, also does not add optimism: "economic activity has fallen sharply in all districts, ... consumption has fallen." Well, and, as always, on Thursday, data were published on new weekly jobless claims. Their number exceeded the forecast again, reaching 2.12 million. In total, since the beginning of the crisis, more than 40 million applications have been submitted, and the number of those who have been looking for work for more than a week is 21 million. Unemployment is growing and it is not a fact that the opening companies will run to return their employees to offices and workshops.
A vaccine is the key to success. The pandemic is waning, the statistics of those infected and recovered are pleasing, but certainly the joy will not be complete without a vaccine. Until humanity will surely know how and how to deal with coronavirus, life will not become normal, as you do not call it. It can be “new normal”, “conditionally normal”, “particularly normal” or “make an impression it is normal”, but it will definitely be abnormal when compared with pre-viral times. Many large companies have already announced that offices will not open before the end of the year, everyone will work remotely, some offer their employees to continue working from home forever, someone is testing the combined options, but the conclusion from this is not very comforting. Remote work will continue to change the structure of the economy and disable many businesses. Only a vaccine can change the situation and restore confidence in people that life in society is safe. It is known that many companies in different countries work on its invention, and each time their success provokes a wave of growth in the financial markets. Many of these successes are false, many are not significant enough, there is no final result yet and you should not wait in the near future. Tentatively, according to experts, the vaccine can be created in 2021. If so, then closer to the fall, active discussions will begin about the second wave of COVID-19 this fall, which, of course, will affect investors’ sentiment.
The China-US trade war erupts with renewed force. Chinese lawmakers launched an attack on the freedoms of Hong Kong autonomy once again, Hong Kong residents took to the streets in protest, and the American government, of course, began to struggle with the infringement of democracy. Secretary of State Pompeo announced that the US "no longer believes that Hong Kong is autonomous from China and, as a result, a special trading regime cannot be maintained." Congress also voted in favor of the law imposing sanctions against Chinese officials who participated in the infringement of the Muslim minority. Trump will hold a press conference on the topic of China on Friday, late in Kiev time, and the future market situation will depend on largely whether President Trump decides to raise rates. It is likely, because in the pre-election year, the image of a courageous and decisive commander to each candidate is to face.
Trump's passion for communication with the world through tweets has received an interesting development. Apparently, a war with China is not enough for a real commander, and Trump decided to open a second front - against Twitter. It began with the fact that Twitter decided to check whether the two statements by the US President about the “election by mail” published on the social network are true. The company said that Trump’s words contain potentially untrue information, and under each of Trump’s tweets there was a warning for the reader and a link to the site with facts to verify the verity of the president’s words. Trump responded by accusing the company of interfering in the presidential election in 2020. A little later, Twitter “noted” another Trump’s message about protests in Minneapolis after the death / killing of an African American by policemen, saying that its content is contrary to company rules prohibiting “exaltation of violence". In a message, Trump expressed support for the Governor, saying that" when looting begins, shooting starts "and promised military assistance if necessary. The company did not delete the original tweet, but hid it. To open it, you need to click on the company’s warning that this is “Violence.” Trump decided not to trifle and on Thursday signed a decree calling into question laws protecting social networks from liability for published materials. The decree aims to introduce additional rules and restrictions on the activities of social networks, but according to many experts it is unlikely to lead to real changes without the consent of Congress, the majority of which is owned by Democrats.
The results of the week. The world cannot live without passions! One is being replaced by others. Fewer sick, more Trump, Chinese, violence in Minneapolis, the election campaign - investors have something to think about. It’s too early to talk about any certainty, and the situation can change at any time, especially considering that the growth of the last two months has absolutely no foundation. And hope, you know, can be dispelled in an instant ...
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