07/09/2026
📈Nonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations; dollar rebounds and gold plunges
U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged by 162,000 in August, far exceeding expectations. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.42%, its highest level since January 2025. Spot gold briefly fell below $4,400, while EUR/USD was little changed at 1.1628. The yen consolidated at elevated levels, and the Canadian dollar remained relatively stable. Supply disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, with WTI closing at $91.48 per barrel and Brent at $96.28. All three major U.S. equity indexes closed lower, with the Dow falling 0.51%. Market focus now shifts to the September 11 CPI release.
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The U.S. Dollar Index closed Friday at 99.15, up 0.15%, as expectations for a September rate hike rose to around 58%. However, President Trump continued to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates, causing gains to narrow late in the session.
Technically, the dollar recovered the 99 level. The negative MACD histogram narrowed, while the RSI rebounded to around 50. Resistance is seen at 99.40, with support at 98.80. The dollar remains relatively firm in the short term, with direction likely to depend on the upcoming CPI data.
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Spot gold closed Friday at $4,429.97 per ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings fell to 1,052.06 tonnes, indicating that institutional investors have turned more cautious in the short term.
Technically, gold quickly recovered after briefly falling below $4,400, reflecting active buying at lower levels. The negative MACD histogram expanded, while the RSI fell to around 40. Resistance is located at $4,490–$4,510, with support at $4,380–$4,400.
Overall, expectations for higher interest rates and safe-haven demand are pulling gold in opposite directions. Prices are likely to fluctuate within a broad $4,360–$4,510 range, with direction dependent on the September 11 CPI release.
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Stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls boosted the dollar and weighed on the euro. However, expectations for a September ECB rate hike are almost fully priced in, providing firm buying support for the euro on dips.
Technically, the pair is holding above the 1.1580 support zone. The MACD bullish crossover remains intact, while the RSI is hovering around 50. Resistance is seen at 1.1670, with support at 1.1580.
EUR/USD is likely to remain range-bound in the short term, with direction expected to depend on next week’s CPI data.
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USD/JPY closed Friday at 155.7, posting its largest weekly move since the joint U.S.-Japan intervention in late July. The move was mainly driven by heightened expectations for a September Bank of Japan rate hike, with Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rising above 3% to its highest level since 1996, alongside short-covering.
Technically, the pair rebounded after falling below the 200-day moving average. The MACD remains in a bearish crossover, although the negative histogram has narrowed, while the RSI has recovered from oversold territory. Resistance is located at 157.50, with support at 155.20.
The yen remains relatively strong in the short term, although some corrective movement may occur after the recent sharp move.
🇨🇦
USD/CAD closed Friday at 1.3790, extending its recent weakness. Oil prices remain elevated amid supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz, supporting the Canadian dollar as Canada is a major oil exporter.
Technically, the pair remains capped by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The MACD remains in a bearish crossover, while the RSI is around 40, indicating weak momentum. Resistance is seen at 1.3860, with support at 1.3780 and 1.3740.
USD/CAD remains weak in the short term. If oil prices stay elevated, the pair may test 1.3740.
🛢
U.S. forces carried out further strikes against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, while vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely limited. With roughly 20% of global oil trade potentially exposed to disruption, supply concerns continue to support crude prices. However, the stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report boosted the dollar and limited gains.
Technically, WTI is holding above $91. The moving averages remain in bullish alignment, while the RSI is approaching overbought territory. Resistance is seen at $93.10, with support at $90.00.
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The above analyst's view is for reference only.
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Oil prices are likely to remain elevated and volatile in the short term, with geopolitical developments continuing to be the dominant driver.
