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31/03/2021

The dollar handed back some gains in early European trading Wednesday as bond yields edged off highs, but remained in demand as fiscal stimulus and an aggressive vaccine rollout are seen prompting a strong U.S. economic recovery.

At 3:15 AM ET (0815 GMT), the US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.1% at 93.240, having earlier hit a new 4-month high at 93.472.

USD/JPY rose 0.4% at 110.74 and EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.1726. GBP/USD was up 0.1% at 1.3746, after U.K. GDP increased by 1.3% between October and December last year from the previous three-month period, compared with an earlier estimate of 1.0% growth, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.2% to 0.7610.

The trickle lower in the dollar comes as U.S. yields struggled to hold onto the new highs, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield seen just above 1.72% having traded above 1.78% on Tuesday.

31/03/2021

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched up 0.08% to 93.370 by 9:58 PM ET (1:58 AM GMT). The index held above the 93 mark and was on course for its best month since 2016.

The USD/JPY pair was up 0.25% to 110.62, surpassing the 110 mark.

The AUD/USD pair edged up 0.17% to 0.7607 and the NZD/USD pair inched up 0.07% to 0.6985.

The USD/CNY pair inched down 0.07% to 6.5669 with the yuan offshore market the weakest since November 2020. China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March was 51.9, higher than the 51 in forecasts prepared by Investing.com and February’s 50.6 reading. The non-manufacturing PMI was 56.6, surpassing its February reading of 51.4.

31/03/2021

The U.S. dollar gave up some of its gains Tuesday following a rise to four-month highs on the back of falling U.S. bond yields – a move that analysts warn could continue.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.35% to $93.28, but had been as high as $93.37.

"Our charts suggest maintaining a positive stance on the US Dollar, but we would tighten up stops as the move higher in US yields may soon lose upside momentum," Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) said in a note.

The trickle lower in the dollar comes as U.S. yields struggled to hold onto their gains after hitting price levels that triggered strong selling action, forcing some profit taking.

"The US 10 Yield nears the 50% retracement of the 2018-2020 descent at 1.79 above which sits the 1.95/2.00 major resistance area," Commerzbank added.

29/03/2021

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar began the week on a firm footing, inching toward a milestone peak against the euro on Monday, as a cautious market mood pushed investors to safety while U.S. economic strength and a rapid vaccine rollout also added to the greenback's shine.

The euro was down 0.1% in the Asia session at $1.1783, not far above last week's four-and-a-half-month trough of $1.1762 and well below its 200-day moving average of about $1.1866.

The common currency is headed for its worst month since mid-2019 as Europe's faltering vaccination programme runs into a wave of new infections, a bearish signal as positioning data shows investors remain heavily long euros.

29/03/2021

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched up 0.10% to 92.812 by 9:54 PM ET (1:54 AM GMT).

The USD/JPY pair inched up 0.01% to 109.66. The yen was not far from strong resistance and Friday's 10-month low of 109.85 against the dollar, as it is sensitive to gaps in returns on U.S. and Japanese government debt.

The U.S. economic recovery has seen a 76-basis-point rise in 10-year Treasury yields in 2021, the biggest since February 2020. The rise drew in Japanese investors, in turn pushing the yen down near 6% in the quarter to date.

The AUD/USD pair inched down 0.08% to 0.7629 and the USD/NZD pair inched down 0.10% to 0.6984.

29/03/2021

The pound rose strongly against the dollar Friday on economic data showing U.K. retail sales rebounded last month, but cable is set to end a second-straight week in the red as experts flag speed bumps ahead.

GBP/USD rose 0.42%, to $1.3789.

U.K. retail sales rose 2.1% last month following a steep drop at the start of 2021. Looking ahead, retail sales are expected to remain sluggish in March but "before a rebound in sales after non-essential stores reopen in England from 12 April onwards," Daiwa Capital Market said.

But in the midst of the improving economic backdrop, some experts are betting against the "overvalued" pound, citing post-Brexit U.K.-EU tensions.

26/03/2021

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar held near its highest since November against most major currencies on Friday, buoyed by hopes over improving U.S. economic data and the availability of coronavirus vaccines, while the euro recovered from heavy losses a day before.

Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar stood at 92.793, not far off a four-month high hit a day earlier and on course for a weekly gain of 0.9%.

In further signs of strength, the dollar rose to 109.44 against the Japanese yen, its highest since June. Against the Swiss franc, it rose to its highest since July, holding onto a 0.5% gain from the previous session.

26/03/2021

The dollar edged lower in early European trading Friday, but remains near multi-month highs on the back of rising optimism about the U.S. economic recovery, helped by a strong rollout of coronavirus vaccines.

At 3:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, was down 0.1% at 92.793, just below a four-month high of 92.868 reached overnight.

USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 109.25, near its highest since June, GBP/USD was up 0.1% at 1.3750, helped by retail sales posting a modest rebound in February after a brutal start to the year, climbing 2.1% on the month, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.5% to 0.7619.

The latest indication of the strength of the U.S. economic recovery came from Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data, which showed the number of people filing last week fell to a one-year low of 684,000 from the 781,000 claims filed during the previous week.

26/03/2021

There were warnings, however, against chasing the dollar higher from current levels from some corners over worries that the dollar’s gains over the past few weeks have been too rapid.

"The euro has broken through the 200-day moving average, and that is a clear sign that it will continue to go lower... the yen is getting strong on some of the crosses, which will cap dollar/yen. Yields have supported the dollar, but this move could start to run out of steam," MUFG Bank head of global markets research Minori Uchida told Reuters.

25/03/2021

The euro fell against the dollar Wednesday and could soon be staring down the barrel of a plunge below $1.18 as the third wave of Covid-19 threatens the outlook for the economic bloc.

EUR/USD fell 0.22% to $1.1823 and could continue its bearish trend as the U.S. appears on track for a stronger recovery thanks to a speedy vaccine rollout, while the EU finds itself in the midst of lockdowns. There was some reprieve on the lockdown front for Germany, Europe's economic engine, as Chancellor Angela Merkel today scrapped plans for harsher Easter lockdown amid widespread criticism.

"The current uncertainty about the third wave … increases the risk that EUR-USD slips below 1.18," Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) said in a note.

25/03/2021

On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed their confidence in the U.S. recovery during a second day of testimony to Congress.

Yellen told Senate lawmakers she was open to banks buying back stock and paying dividends, an updated view showing her confidence in the economy. Powell also said he thinks 2021 will be a "very, very strong year in the most likely case."

A day earlier, though, the treasury secretary had put investors on alert after espousing tax hikes to pay for President Joe Biden's plans for upgrading infrastructure and other investments.

Inflation could also rear its head as disruptions in the supply chain exert cost pressures for manufacturers, with U.S. factory activity picking up in early March.

25/03/2021

BENGALURU (Reuters) - Investors were bearish on all Asian currencies for the first time in a year, and also turned short on the Chinese yuan after a strong run since last summer, a Reuters poll showed, as U.S. economic outperformance and new lockdowns elsewhere muddy the outlook for risk assets.

Higher vaccinations and expectations that the U.S. economic recovery will far outpace the rest of the world has kept Treasury yields elevated and the dollar at a four-month high, tipping investors away from emerging market currencies and bonds that traditionally yield more though are considered riskier.

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